Sliceback

Used these airlines because their retirement data is available.

source - apc airline profiles and search function for previous threads (advanced search, 'majors', "retirements").

AA/US, DL, UA, SW, FDX, UPS.


Numbers rounded to the nearest 10 -


2015 1150
2016 1290
2017 1530
2018 1740
2019 1980
2020 2250
2021 2600
2022 2760
2023 2860
2024 2840
2025 2850
2026 2810
2027 2580
2028 2580
2029 2370*
2030 2250*

* - FedEx data missing. Estimated 180 in 2029 and 160 in 2030.


Total active pilots -

UA 12,505
DL 11,723
AA 10.357
SW 6,830
US 4,430
FDX 4,288
UPS 2,516

Total 52,649



Cumulative retirements / percentage of total pilots -

2015 - 1150 2%
2016 - 2440 5
2017 - 3970 8
2018 - 5710 11
2019 - 7690 15
2020 - 9940 19
2021 - 12,540 24
2022 - 15,300 29
2023 - 18,160 34
2024 - 21,000 40
2025 - 23,850 45
2026 - 26,660 51
2027 - 29,240 56
2028 - 31,820 60
2029 - 34,190 65
2030 - 36,440 69

Flyby1206

Those are staggering numbers.

What is the likelihood of the retirement age limit being raised, or completely eliminated, in the next 15 years?

RockyBoy

I would say 100% that it goes to 67. Not sure they will eliminate it.

Past V1

Good LAWD!!!!!

Flying Elvis

I got bored on my last short call (last ever in my life I hope ), and threw this together for DAL:


*- First number is how many mandatory retirements happen that year.
-* Second number is cumulative retirements from 1 Jan 2015.
*- Third number is the hypothetical seniority number a newhire with a 12,200 seniority number in Dec 2014 would have at the end of the given year.
*- Next is what the pilot with that seniority number holds as of 1 Jan 2015.
*- (In parentheses is a random example of what the pilot could hold if s/he wanted)
* 2015: 163 163 12,037 * 76% NYC A320 B (17% NYC 717 B)
* 2016: 222 385 11,815 * 77% ATL 717 B (Plug SLC 73N B)
* 2017: 277 662 11,538 * 56% ATL 717 B (42% NYC 320 B)
* 2018: 407 1,069 11,131 * 45% ATL 717 B (71% CVG M88 B)
* 2019: 501 1,570 10,630 * 46% MSP M88 B (89% LAX 7ER B)
* 2020: 600 2,170 10,030* 77% DTW 7ER B (NYC717A in NovAE)
* 2021: 785 2,955 9,207 * 46% ATL 7ER B (79% NYC 765 B)
* 2022: 847 3,802 8,938 * 10% MSP M88 B (63% SEA 7ER B)
* 2023: 802 4,604 7,596 * 65% DTW 717 A (80% DTW 777 B)
* 2024: 801 5,405 6,795 * 15% DTW 7ER B (99% ATL 73N A)

Sorry ' bout all the asterisks. They imported from Google Docs.

gzsg

Thanks for the great info!

What's interesting is no one talks about the U.S. Economy. It is picking up steam and the big carriers are growing as well.

5% annual growth at Delta alone requires 600 extra pilots per year plus the retirements you listed.

The Regions are dead and pilots are going to make what they deserve.

Let's hope ALPA doesn't screw us again on raising the age and lowering the 1500 hour rule.

Sliceback

Growth is expected to be closer to GDP. That's ASM growth. Job growth will be less, maybe 1-2%? That's still an additional 500-1000 pilots added to the yearly demand. 36,000 pilots needed becomes 44,000+ with 1% growth, 52,000 with 2% job growth over the 16 yrs listed.

TED74

Thanks for putting this together! I'm sad you'll have no more bored short calls. I'd have loved to see this run exclusively for DTW, and I'm sure others are similarly interested in other domiciles...

Justdoinmyjob

Being bored on short call, or just being on short call?

gzsg

I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

Take a look back at the growth rates YOY for Alaska, Delta, Spirit and many others.