Jonny Drama

What's the over / under on a 2014 newbie getting into SEA 73 on this January bid?? I'm hoping to skip out on five months of a seat lock and hang up this cross country commute!

gloopy

lolwut?

I never said anything about putting AS out of business. In fact I've said before AS is around to stay forever, obvious merger mania notwithstanding, but that doesn't count as being "put out of business" by any means.

There will be fare wars though, and there WILL be capacity dumping. AS will be a part of that on their end as well. Just look at the pathetic attempt at revenge in SLC and continued transcons being dumped all over the place.

I predict DL will have no choice but to sacrifice some of the record breaking YoY growth numbers in yields and margins to fight back (and win) because the alternative is to endlessly shrink to accommodate the attacks of your competitors. It is a war that AS can't win in the long run, and they will have to retreat and retrench. But they won't go out of business that's just silly.

Besides all that though, even if I did say AS was going to go out of business (which I didn't) how would that change anything about the friendly charity wager? You said DL was basically going to pull all this growth out of SEA within 5 years. The ONLY reason you would pull out of the friendly wager is because you realize you're wrong and don't want to lose. But even then, its for charity bro.

gloopy

Hmmm I'd say pretty low in the Jan bid. Possible though I guess. Movement makes magic happen on AE's, as people tend to bid differently and bypass seats they may eventually want until they can hold an even better schedule or just to see how it develops. I'm sure there will be several pilots that want SEA73N who will bypass at first because they don't want to be in a new category, as the trips tend to be hit or miss in those (mostly miss at first).

Pilots also tend to bypass upgrades for a while when there is a lot of movement. Hence the junior CA position going to the bottom 20% of the list, or way "out of seniority" as some put it. That rarely happens during stagnation.

Throw your bid in, it could happen. Probably not though. I'd say 15-20%chance on the first bid. Not sure what plane/base you're in now, but you likely have a very high chance of getting LAX or SLC if that helps out in the meantime. I think you will see SEA within 2 years or less though.

RockyBoy

Probably 0%. Only 50 positions from what Crew Resources said. I'd imagine those slots go senior. New categories like this are almost impossible to predict however, so you never know. I would certainly bid it, but don't expect to get it.

RockyBoy

I agree. I would imagine the category will end up with around 100-125 A positions and the same B positions eventually. There is still the possibility of a 717 base somewhere out West as well. This SEA hub plan is the best thing to happen to West coast lovers in the last 2 decades.

Timbo

You're right, you never can tell who's going to bid what. I can remember three different bids I put in over the past years where I was so junior I thought there was NO WAY I would ever hold what I put in for...

And in all 3 cases, I got it...at the very bottom!

Then the 'buyer's remorse' set in, as I realized I was going to be the plug!! (my wife: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING??)

Oh well, "Bid what you want, and WANT what you BID!!"

But be careful what you ask for, you might actually get it!

I think number 10,302 from that last bid is going to be the plug Capt. for many, many years!

poostain

I'm guessing there will be some B positions going junior. No intellectual reason why, I just think so.

RockyBoy

I know the guy and he was going to pull the 717 off his bid but didn't because he thought there was no way he would ever get it. Seriously.

Jonny Drama

Honestly I would probably bid to LAX on the next bid if I were awarded. Just a way to get me out of the MadDog seat lock which will be up at the beginning of next summer. Both SEA and LAX are very commutable from where I live though. SLC is as well, but to a much lesser degree than the other two.

RockyBoy

Maybe. A lot of the pre-2014 guys that want to be out West are already here from the last few bids so you may be right.

If I was a betting man, I would bet that the SEA slots are filled with NB guys from LAX and SLC that either live in SEA and commute or will have an easier commute to SEA. That will in turn open up even more junior slots in LAX and SEA. If they ever catch up in NYC we will see newhires in class getting SLC and LAX slots.