LUV overbids eveyone to win 54 DCA slots
02-02-2014, 08:50 AM
#51
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
DL has slowly begun to take the fight to them and others. Slowly. Its a positive sign, but JB will continue their assault on DL's network because they have to continue to grow forever to survive. Yet the more they grow, the more the legacies will feel the pain. So we raise fairs and reduce capacity to preserve the fares, and they grow into the capacity while also raising fares but due to their lower CASM (primarily due to labor cost advantages) they remain profitable while growing and keeping fares below ours as long as we have YoY RASM growth tunnel vision.
We're finally starting to add capacity on a few markets they do. Finally. But its not enough. We need to take it to them and do it hard. Now. Before we wake up in 5 or 10 more years and they have another couple hundred narrow bodies overflying capacity we've yielded while tying in with even more Gulf airline routes in a multi front attack on our business model. Of course, they may be merged/fragmented by then, which would be great, but until and unless that happens, we have to fight to win. We can't let yet them pick us apart on their terms. Its us or them. Its not personal, its just business. And they (and VX, etc) are hoping its them. That's fine. But our current path is radically unsustainable. We can't rest flat footed on our (newly re-earned) laurels while they continue their stratedgy of marketshare transfer on their terms.
02-02-2014, 09:02 AM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,931
You didn't seem to mind when legacy airlines were gasping for air and the LCC's were taking deliveries as fast as the factory could pump them out while gutting the markets with 25 dollar intro fares and taking almost any route they wanted with a hyper low CASM no one could come close to matching. While legacies furloughed by the thousands LCC's had lightning fast upgrades (ironically to about industry standard FO pay in the first place, with lower benefits and work rules…"PFU" pay for upgrade).
And now that the industry is finally seeing some limited measure of stability and prosperity, due mostly to legacy consolidation and "capacity dicipline" you are giddy to grow into that contraction as if it were some permanent paradigm to transfer domestic flying to you so you can code share with the flag of convienience "open skies" poachers.
FWIW, I hope the LCC's fall hard and face contraction and some of them go away, directly or via consolidation. As if you would have shed a tear if a legacy or two liquidated and your start up placed a big widebody order, etc. I agree though, its not the pilot's fault. I just hope we are in a period of legacy prosperity and can not just fend off the growth of, but reclaim significant marketshare that the LCC's grew into the last 14 years in a blatant attempt to put down a legacy or two and take that flying. It wasn't personal back then, it was just business. As it is now.
And now that the industry is finally seeing some limited measure of stability and prosperity, due mostly to legacy consolidation and "capacity dicipline" you are giddy to grow into that contraction as if it were some permanent paradigm to transfer domestic flying to you so you can code share with the flag of convienience "open skies" poachers.
FWIW, I hope the LCC's fall hard and face contraction and some of them go away, directly or via consolidation. As if you would have shed a tear if a legacy or two liquidated and your start up placed a big widebody order, etc. I agree though, its not the pilot's fault. I just hope we are in a period of legacy prosperity and can not just fend off the growth of, but reclaim significant marketshare that the LCC's grew into the last 14 years in a blatant attempt to put down a legacy or two and take that flying. It wasn't personal back then, it was just business. As it is now.
The big difference between you and me is you seem to want to see pilots out of a job and I just don't understand that.
I have only been with jetBlue for a little over two years, before that I was at a regional so I sure as He-- did care if you guys got hurt as it had a direct impact on me. I think your comment about it being business and not personal is ironic, you should read your post again and tell me it is not personal. It all depends on which seat you sit in, I have a feeling you would feel different if you were not at a legacy.
Just out of curiosity did you go from the military to said legacy?
As I said LCC's did and will have an impact but if you go back 10 years and want to tell me that the legacy's were well run and its all the LCC's fault, well you need to do a little more research.
I truly hope your airline does well as it benefits all of us in a way.
02-02-2014, 09:07 AM
#53
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,931
Its not about a few cheap seats though. JB has big plans to capacity dump onto DL routes. The assault has already begun out of BOS and will continue. Expect ATL, MSP and more this year and next. What that does, hype over intro fares aside, is dump tens of thousands of seats a month onto routes that are finally doing good because of capacity dicipline. They will bank on DL backing off to preserve yields while they continue to grow forever, all the while tying in with Gulf airlines and any other flag of convienience carrier to syphon off international/HVC traffic on a permanantly growing basis.
DL has slowly begun to take the fight to them and others. Slowly. Its a positive sign, but JB will continue their assault on DL's network because they have to continue to grow forever to survive. Yet the more they grow, the more the legacies will feel the pain. So we raise fairs and reduce capacity to preserve the fares, and they grow into the capacity while also raising fares but due to their lower CASM (primarily due to labor cost advantages) they remain profitable while growing and keeping fares below ours as long as we have YoY RASM growth tunnel vision.
We're finally starting to add capacity on a few markets they do. Finally. But its not enough. We need to take it to them and do it hard. Now. Before we wake up in 5 or 10 more years and they have another couple hundred narrow bodies overflying capacity we've yielded while tying in with even more Gulf airline routes in a multi front attack on our business model. Of course, they may be merged/fragmented by then, which would be great, but until and unless that happens, we have to fight to win. We can't let yet them pick us apart on their terms. Its us or them. Its not personal, its just business. And they (and VX, etc) are hoping its them. That's fine. But our current path is radically unsustainable. We can't rest flat footed on our (newly re-earned) laurels while they continue their stratedgy of marketshare transfer on their terms.
DL has slowly begun to take the fight to them and others. Slowly. Its a positive sign, but JB will continue their assault on DL's network because they have to continue to grow forever to survive. Yet the more they grow, the more the legacies will feel the pain. So we raise fairs and reduce capacity to preserve the fares, and they grow into the capacity while also raising fares but due to their lower CASM (primarily due to labor cost advantages) they remain profitable while growing and keeping fares below ours as long as we have YoY RASM growth tunnel vision.
We're finally starting to add capacity on a few markets they do. Finally. But its not enough. We need to take it to them and do it hard. Now. Before we wake up in 5 or 10 more years and they have another couple hundred narrow bodies overflying capacity we've yielded while tying in with even more Gulf airline routes in a multi front attack on our business model. Of course, they may be merged/fragmented by then, which would be great, but until and unless that happens, we have to fight to win. We can't let yet them pick us apart on their terms. Its us or them. Its not personal, its just business. And they (and VX, etc) are hoping its them. That's fine. But our current path is radically unsustainable. We can't rest flat footed on our (newly re-earned) laurels while they continue their stratedgy of marketshare transfer on their terms.
Wow you really give jetBlue a lot of credit.
We are not a big threat to Delta.
Spirit in Fll yes (nothing against Spirit) Delta not so much as you said you could kill us at any point. But if you are worried about 5 flights a day on an emb-190 to ATL, MSP, and DTW I guess so be it
02-02-2014, 09:18 AM
#54
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
Just as the legacies were trying to get a leg under them, the LCC's went supernova and flooded the market with cheap seats, high volume and ultra low costs that couldn't be matched. So the legacies contracted and purged many tens of thousands of jobs while the LCC's barfed capacity on any and every route in a blatant attempt to put a legacy down.
So it wasn't "all" the LCC's faults. A massive terror attack coinciding with a hard collapse of one foundational asset bubble (only to be replaced with another, even bigger one) was to blame for laying the foundation that the LCC's used to quickly grow to where they are.
And again, I'm fine with that because its just business. And now its our turn. You can't grow forever and honestly there is no place for the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of growth narrow bodies the LCC's have on order, unless more capacity is transferred from legacies to LCC's. You will benefit if that happens. I hope it doesn't.
Hey look, if there is some fantasy way every single pilot, including current and future start ups, can enjoy endless growth and unchallenged prosperity despite the market realities of us being in the middle of a critical capacity war then hey, fine. Bring it. I guess. But that's just not realistic. But in the real world there will be winners and losers. The legacies have lost mightily, to the direct benefit of the LCC's. I hope the legacies can merely take back what was lost. If everyone can magically grow into an evergreen market of endless growth, great. But thats not likely or even realistic.
02-02-2014, 09:33 AM
#55
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,931
Its not a matter of being well run. Its ironic that someone at JB would play that card in the first place when JB is one of the worst run, fair weather airlines in the country, only able to compete with super cheap labor and ultra low across the board longevity compared to their peers. Although prior to the pre 9-11 cliff drop off recession (and then 9-11) legacies were raking in record profits. We all know what happened next.
Just as the legacies were trying to get a leg under them, the LCC's went supernova and flooded the market with cheap seats, high volume and ultra low costs that couldn't be matched. So the legacies contracted and purged many tens of thousands of jobs while the LCC's barfed capacity on any and every route in a blatant attempt to put a legacy down.
So it wasn't "all" the LCC's faults. A massive terror attack coinciding with a hard collapse of one foundational asset bubble (only to be replaced with another, even bigger one) was to blame for laying the foundation that the LCC's used to quickly grow to where they are.
And again, I'm fine with that because its just business. And now its our turn. You can't grow forever and honestly there is no place for the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of growth narrow bodies the LCC's have on order, unless more capacity is transferred from legacies to LCC's. You will benefit if that happens. I hope it doesn't.
Hey look, if there is some fantasy way every single pilot, including current and future start ups, can enjoy endless growth and unchallenged prosperity despite the market realities of us being in the middle of a critical capacity war then hey, fine. Bring it. I guess. But that's just not realistic. But in the real world there will be winners and losers. The legacies have lost mightily, to the direct benefit of the LCC's. I hope the legacies can merely take back what was lost. If everyone can magically grow into an evergreen market of endless growth, great. But thats not likely or even realistic.
Just as the legacies were trying to get a leg under them, the LCC's went supernova and flooded the market with cheap seats, high volume and ultra low costs that couldn't be matched. So the legacies contracted and purged many tens of thousands of jobs while the LCC's barfed capacity on any and every route in a blatant attempt to put a legacy down.
So it wasn't "all" the LCC's faults. A massive terror attack coinciding with a hard collapse of one foundational asset bubble (only to be replaced with another, even bigger one) was to blame for laying the foundation that the LCC's used to quickly grow to where they are.
And again, I'm fine with that because its just business. And now its our turn. You can't grow forever and honestly there is no place for the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of growth narrow bodies the LCC's have on order, unless more capacity is transferred from legacies to LCC's. You will benefit if that happens. I hope it doesn't.
Hey look, if there is some fantasy way every single pilot, including current and future start ups, can enjoy endless growth and unchallenged prosperity despite the market realities of us being in the middle of a critical capacity war then hey, fine. Bring it. I guess. But that's just not realistic. But in the real world there will be winners and losers. The legacies have lost mightily, to the direct benefit of the LCC's. I hope the legacies can merely take back what was lost. If everyone can magically grow into an evergreen market of endless growth, great. But thats not likely or even realistic.
I didn't play that card I just said the LCC's were not the only problem the legacy's faced, and I never said jetBlue was well run.
So military straight to Delta?(I think so as you seem to lack some perspective)
So its back to in your world where only Delta, American, United and maybe Southwest have a right to exist all other trouble maker, low cost, capacity dumping and lets not forget INSOLENT airlines should just go away.
02-02-2014, 09:39 AM
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,544
I didn't play that card I just said the LCC's were not the only problem the legacy's faced, and I never said jetBlue was well run.
So military straight to Delta?(I think so as you seem to lack some perspective)
So its back to in your world where only Delta, American, United and maybe Southwest have a right to exist all other trouble maker, low cost, capacity dumping and lets not forget INSOLENT airlines should just go away.
So military straight to Delta?(I think so as you seem to lack some perspective)
So its back to in your world where only Delta, American, United and maybe Southwest have a right to exist all other trouble maker, low cost, capacity dumping and lets not forget INSOLENT airlines should just go away.
We are on a collision course with reality in this industry. There will be winners and losers. They growth powerpoint you probably got in indoc will only materialize if it comes from existing legacy capacity. I hope that doesn't happen. I appreciate your cockeyed optimism (if thats what it is) thinking we can all grow into infinnity and beyond with no consequence, but I disagree with the premise on the grounds of the reality of the marketplace.
Not sure of your background either, and it really doesn't matter, other than to urge you to shy away from ad hominem arguements to bolster your position. I assure you there are plenty of military and civilian pilots who agree and disagree with both of us.
02-02-2014, 10:08 AM
#57
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,931
Where do you see a place for the many hundreds of growth narrow bodies, as well as the inevitable LCC widebody order, coming from in terms of capacity to warrent it unless that capacity is gifted to them by existing legacy routes?
We are on a collision course with reality in this industry. There will be winners and losers. They growth powerpoint you probably got in indoc will only materialize if it comes from existing legacy capacity. I hope that doesn't happen. I appreciate your cockeyed optimism (if thats what it is) thinking we can all grow into infinnity and beyond with no consequence, but I disagree with the premise on the grounds of the reality of the marketplace.
Not sure of your background either, and it really doesn't matter, other than to urge you to shy away from ad hominem arguements to bolster your position. I assure you there are plenty of military and civilian pilots who agree and disagree with both of us.
We are on a collision course with reality in this industry. There will be winners and losers. They growth powerpoint you probably got in indoc will only materialize if it comes from existing legacy capacity. I hope that doesn't happen. I appreciate your cockeyed optimism (if thats what it is) thinking we can all grow into infinnity and beyond with no consequence, but I disagree with the premise on the grounds of the reality of the marketplace.
Not sure of your background either, and it really doesn't matter, other than to urge you to shy away from ad hominem arguements to bolster your position. I assure you there are plenty of military and civilian pilots who agree and disagree with both of us.
As I said I really think you give us too much credit.
Nobody at jetBlue thinks we are going to be able to roll over any legacy, maybe you are thinking of another LCC but that is not us.
We all know what position we are in and how very vulnerable our company is. We do need to grow and where that is I am not sure but you guys have fought us and won...ie...jfk pit and you have fought us and lost. Like I said you seem to want to see guys out of a job and I just don't understand that. We will see who wins and I hope we come to a point in the airline world where we all can have jobs and have a stable industry.....but that's just me being a cockeyed optimist.
02-02-2014, 10:22 AM
#58
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,931
Where do you see a place for the many hundreds of growth narrow bodies, as well as the inevitable LCC widebody order, coming from in terms of capacity to warrent it unless that capacity is gifted to them by existing legacy routes?
We are on a collision course with reality in this industry. There will be winners and losers. They growth powerpoint you probably got in indoc will only materialize if it comes from existing legacy capacity. I hope that doesn't happen. I appreciate your cockeyed optimism (if thats what it is) thinking we can all grow into infinnity and beyond with no consequence, but I disagree with the premise on the grounds of the reality of the marketplace.
Not sure of your background either, and it really doesn't matter, other than to urge you to shy away from ad hominem arguements to bolster your position. I assure you there are plenty of military and civilian pilots who agree and disagree with both of us.
We are on a collision course with reality in this industry. There will be winners and losers. They growth powerpoint you probably got in indoc will only materialize if it comes from existing legacy capacity. I hope that doesn't happen. I appreciate your cockeyed optimism (if thats what it is) thinking we can all grow into infinnity and beyond with no consequence, but I disagree with the premise on the grounds of the reality of the marketplace.
Not sure of your background either, and it really doesn't matter, other than to urge you to shy away from ad hominem arguements to bolster your position. I assure you there are plenty of military and civilian pilots who agree and disagree with both of us.
Not an ad hominem attack as much as me trying to understand why you have the opinion you do. I would argue that a guy who goes form being a cfi to a regional to Delta might have a different prespective on the industry than one who went from the military straight to Delta(there is NOTHING wrong with either way) it just tends to shape ones opinions.
So please understand that I was no attacking you or the way you made it to your airline.
02-02-2014, 10:36 AM
#60
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: A-320
Posts: 6,929
I was responding to his comment that us is basically low end, we're making exactly the same as aa and we are basically aa.
But back to the matter at hand, everytime JetBlue or spirit or whichever lcc adds an airplane it adds more cheap seats to the industry. It lowers the profits of the legacies and in the ends hurts their ability to be able to pay more. It's basic supply and demand. Get mad all you want but those are the facts.
But back to the matter at hand, everytime JetBlue or spirit or whichever lcc adds an airplane it adds more cheap seats to the industry. It lowers the profits of the legacies and in the ends hurts their ability to be able to pay more. It's basic supply and demand. Get mad all you want but those are the facts.
Last edited by UAL T38 Phlyer; 02-02-2014 at 12:35 PM. Reason: TOS
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