skylawyer

This worked. Thank you very much!!!!!

obx41

Any indication if the usual aircraft: MD80, 717, A320, 737, & 7ER will be available to the 2/2 class?

Flying Elvis

Did some number crunching/prognostication for some friends and figured I'd share here, since many of you are trying to foretell the future and decide your priorities on new-hire aircraft.

Taking a look at the latest forecasts, here's roughly what a June 2014 hire would stand one year later at the end of June 2015.

For the "would I have a line?" question: as a rough rule, Crew Services tries to keep about 20% of the category on reserve, so if you are 80% or better, you can hold a line solidly. Since some senior folks bid reserve, you may be able to hold a line significantly earlier.


ATL
•7ER: 514/617 (83%)
•73N: 235/295 (80%)
•320: 100/152 (66%)
•M88: 389/577 (67%)
•717: 187/258 (72%)


CVG:
•M88: 50/53 (94%)
•DTW:
•7ER: 133/152 (88%)
•73N: 84/93 (90%)
•320: 148/146 (ASSISTANT TO THE DEPUTY PLUG)
•717: 41/53 (77%)

LAX:
7ER: 190/194 (ASSISTANT TO THE DEPUTY PLUG)
73N: 77/88 (88%)

MSP:
•7ER: 137/138 (DEPUTY PLUG)
•M88: 211/211 (PLUG)

NYC
•7ER: 275/421 (65%)
•73N: 70/156 (45%)
•320: 43/152 (28%)
•M88: 35/159 (22%)
•717: 7/139 (5%... DANG, SKIPPY!)

SLC
•7ER: 102/105 (ASSISTANT TO THE DEPUTY PLUG)
•73N: 82/89 (92%)
•320: 118/143 (82%)

Of course, 2015 movement will look different than 2014, but some stuff to consider since airline pilots never, ever overthink stuff.

Bergman

Had to laugh at your last comment since I've been self-admittedly overthinking this since my CJO.

Thanks a bunch for the info. I appreciate the data points prior to making a decision that will affect my family for at least a year.

overthehill

This is awesome info....does anyone know how many have been hired since Jun 14? Also, does anyone have any official hiring projections by the company?

duder

Roughly 700 since June. Still doing 115/mo through at least April to cover the summer schedule. Not sure what they will throttle back to in Summer but still talking 900 new hires in '15.

Flying Elvis

Roughly 750 June 2014-Present. Another 300 before that since hiring started in January 2014.

I've heard everything from 115-125/mo for the next year. It appears they are behind the power curve as they started hiring later than desired and are now trying to catch up. I believe it will taper back eventually to 400-500/yr rate once they get caught up to where they need to be.

RoughLandings

Elvis, have you got MSP A320 data in that pile? I didn't see it on your chart. That's where I'm trying to get...

Flying Elvis

MSP 320 B plug who just got in this past AE (to be in MSP no later than 1 Jul 15) is an April 2014 hire. If you're trying to get to MSP, most likely your 1yr initial seatlock will expire before you win it on an AE.

overthehill

Retirements don't start ramping up until 2017....why the drastic increase in pilot end strength? What is the current total? Must be over 12,500.