Delta Hiring News
12-22-2013, 08:56 AM
#3041
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Maddog FO
Posts: 654
Not fair duece, you're an outlier, the best of the best. Happy for you man!
One would think there would be a pretty wide range in hiring ages to prevent another 10 year period filled with mass retirements.
One would think there would be a pretty wide range in hiring ages to prevent another 10 year period filled with mass retirements.
12-22-2013, 10:38 AM
#3042
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,058
12-22-2013, 11:33 AM
#3044
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Posts: 272
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
12-22-2013, 11:36 AM
#3045
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: 2000 light years from home
Posts: 49
What 30 year old is getting hired at DAL this year? With folks not even getting interviews that have 7-10k worth of hours, 121 experience, and lots of PIC, a 30 year old new hire right now is the outlier. Far from the norm and certainly not where a career progression argument should be focused.
I would love to hear about 30 year olds getting hired in droves - that would mean we'd all have a shot!
I would love to hear about 30 year olds getting hired in droves - that would mean we'd all have a shot!
12-22-2013, 12:45 PM
#3046
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 365
Why is it pessimistic. As a 2008 hire. He has roughly 3500 pilots between him and the most junior captain position in NY. 4500 for most other bases.
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
The retirement numbers for the next 5 years are closer to 1200. Are you saying only half of those are captains? I am guessing it is closer to 1000 captain retirements by the end of 2018, that's scheduled not accounting for anyone going early.
Of course I am already at 14 years and still not close to captain so maybe I am being optimistic that I will be able to hold it prior to 20 years.
12-22-2013, 12:59 PM
#3047
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,058
Why is it pessimistic. As a 2008 hire. He has roughly 3500 pilots between him and the most junior captain position in NY. 4500 for most other bases.
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
12-22-2013, 02:27 PM
#3048
Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 7,014
HockeyPilot is senior to me. I'm also a 2008 hire. He says that he doesn't think he will hold captain before 14 years, or somewhere other than NYC until 16years. Based just on age 65 retirements, my year end 2022 (14 years and change) is 71xx. If you assume the average retirement age is closer to 63, it would be closer to 55xx. With the growth you've stated and people holding out for QOL, upgrade will be much sooner than 14 years IN MY OPINION. When things really start moving, I think you'll see a lot more really junior people at the bottom of a lot of categories. Things are stacked up much more per seniority right now due to years of stagnation. Again, just my opinion.
I agree with you 100%. That is exactly what happens when the movement is both positive and continuous. The bottom end of a lot of categories go pretty junior.
Just my 2 cents - Scoop
12-22-2013, 02:50 PM
#3049
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Posts: 272
The retirement numbers for the next 5 years are closer to 1200. Are you saying only half of those are captains? I am guessing it is closer to 1000 captain retirements by the end of 2018, that's scheduled not accounting for anyone going early.
Of course I am already at 14 years and still not close to captain so maybe I am being optimistic that I will be able to hold it prior to 20 years.
Of course I am already at 14 years and still not close to captain so maybe I am being optimistic that I will be able to hold it prior to 20 years.
Fair enough I was not using 2018 numbers (I was using 2013-2017). I agree as a 2000 hire I think you will be approaching the low 8000's in 2020 and if the seniority of captains stays about the same as it is today, that should get you a captains seat in NY. I don't think you are being overly optimistic, I think the numbers support a 20 year upgrade for you. You will not get an argument form me on your assessment.
12-22-2013, 03:01 PM
#3050
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Posts: 272
I don't disagree with that statement either. But the sooner you have the opportunity to bid captain regardless of if you bid it or not, has more impact on your QOL than any other factor at the airline. It will give you the opportunity to be a senior FO with huge amounts of QOL as well as the opportunity to bid captain at a later date for QOL.
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