Ekpt40

Noooooo!!!
Cactus has it all wrong XJT!! Do not believe a word of it.All the legacy carriers are bad and getting worse-soon you will have to pay for your crew meals , they will charge you roaming rates when you make a PA, and rumor has it they will use the free space on the side of your flight bag as a billboard.


But the future is cloudy in all honesty.I have read that 150 a barrel oil will be the new normal soon.That can either kill aviation and we all bike from EWR to LAX (and grow our own food too) or airlines will be forced to optimize routes to airframes.
This will imply higher load factors and less frequency to any given city pair.Some routes may take a 90 seater, some a 400 seater.I think the future will have a market driven form of re-regulation.Ticket costs will result in less demand.

The RJ will be forced out of the game.Honestly all the consolidation and mergers we see now are the result of CEOs looking into a future of high oil prices and a need to get rid of competition. I doubt they see a rosy picture for a higher cost per seat 50-90 seater.

The other end of the coin is that the majors will not grow.At any legacy you may never see the left seat in this scenario.But at a feeder you may very well get grounded permanently.

Our careers are controlled by oil cost.

Ekpt40

double post-deleted

trent890

For those that prefer to deal with the raw numbers, it's all right there on the airline profile page at: Airline Pilot Central - US Airways | Legacy

5100 Pilots, roughly 250 retirements per year for the next 12 years. That's just under 5% movement up the seniority list each year. 5 years = 25% advancement, 10 years = 50% advancement.

For others who might prefer a picture, I offer:


Copied from the data another gent has gathered at Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis

If you visit that webpage, you will see that his data indicates a US Airways new-hire will climb one-third (33%) of the way up the seniority list by 2018. Additionally, that same new-hire will have continued climbing to nearly two-thirds (64%) of the way up the seniority list in 10 years, by 2023.

You may notice the significant seniority advancement in the next 5 to 10 years at places like Spirit, Virgin America, Emirates, and JetBlue. This advancement is due to growth that comes from the significant number of new airframes that each carrier has on order. Whether these orders will actually result in a new delivery and fleet growth 5 years from now is very speculative. I'm certain there is some advancement at these carriers due to retirements over the next several years, but it is largely overshadowed by questionable growth resulting from an overzealous aircraft order book.

And a final statement: After 2025 or so, what is the next airline that has new-hire pilots from 2012/2013 outpacing the rest of the industry in advancement up the seniority list? That's right, it's potential merger partner American Airlines.

Desert Sky

This post is some funny ish!

HotMamaPilot

Well said. As the spouse of an "eastie", I am dumbfounded of usairways ability to get applicants. Okay, first year pay should be LOWER to offset training costs etc. But at usair, it's the first five or six years that are ridiculous. By year two-and-a-half, do they offer assistance in filing personal chapter 7? Sad too, because my hubbie was grossing over 11k per month c. 1992.
Xjet is right; why go there with such terrible pay? Why not wait til they ponie up the money? With all these desperate souls applying, why should they!
On a side note: it makes perfect sense for an rj fo, but captain? No way.

SilverandSore

Yes way. Simply use one of the many payscale comparison sites available out there (including here), an rj captain does better in the long run at Airways. Even with their current deplorable pay rates, the long term earnings are greater. Throw in better work rules, retirement contribution and treatment and it's an easy sell. You may not think that, on the inside looking out, but from the folks I've talked to that worked at places like Chautauqua, ASA, Expressjet etc, life at Airways still beats those places hands down. The big factor however, is the revolving door that regional contracts have become. Comair, Pinnacle anyone? Look at ASA, great they got the American contract but 11 more planes are coming out of Atlanta and the Delta side. You have to have nearly 10 years with the company to hold left seat in Atlanta, who would have thought that after the original Dallas base closure?

JoeyMeatballs

Im gonna chime in here. I have been at XJT for 6 years, I am 16 away from CA and I applied and am hoping I get the call. It might be because my wife has a great job, but I would rather be a 3rd year F/O on the 190 making 47/hr as opposed to a 7+ year CA at XJT making $76/hr. Heck, I would rather be a furloughed US Airways pilot than a currently employed one at XJT. I have been here prior the merger and we were run like a major airline, now it is a completely different company. The Crew Schedulers constantly attempt to violate the contract, our MX dept has completely gone to Sh--, I have had 3 gate returns in the past 6 months because MX installed the wrong part! and signed it off as good to go, that's pretty scary if you ask me. I also am seeing whats going on in negotiations and our current contract, with our great work rules, amazing vacation, etc is under a lot of pressure to be "changed", you know, to be more "cost competitive"
While I agree a middle of the pack CA seems like a decent gig now compared to an Airways F/O, I think it's extremely short-sighted.... I am not faulting anyone for staying ( I cant see how a single source provider for a family can provide anything for their family while on the current junior Airways payscale), but for me, I have 6,000hrs Total time, 5,000 SIC, I need to get out of here ASAP.......

HotMamaPilot

Short-sighted? What about the harsh financial hardships that you will incur during those 5-7 years? How long will it take you to recoup those lost wages? If you're single, living in mom's basement, fine. If you're the man of the house, how in the world can you justify those "wages"?
Once again, if you're a regional fo, yes usairways would be a great "upgrade"; for a rj captain, it could put your life into a tailspin.

SilverandSore

Wouldn't the definition of short sighted be roughly akin to only looking at the next 5-7 years? I can easily justify it by looking a little further down the road (you know, more than 7 years) and preparing for it by not living beyond my means as a regional captain. Something my wife and I have planned on and done for years. Being a lifer at a regional and then getting Comair'd could also put your life in a tailspin. It's still a better bet.

HotMamaPilot

So you're ok with living off of the shirt tails of your wife while your new employer works on a new contract? Seems unfair to your spouse, but I suppose that more and more men are ok with this these days. How about wait until they start paying more? Or set your focus on someone who pays (e.g. Delta).