What if a no vote means less?
06-15-2012, 01:41 PM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,619
What if a no vote means less?
Disclaimer:
These are my personal thoughts and that is all. They don’t represent the views of anyone else or any organization.
What happens if we say no?
The common forum wisdom is that if we say no, then Delta management will simply roll over and start dishing out money to us. I haven’t seen one shred of analysis to give any credence to this contention and so I assume that this belief is based on the individual merely hoping it was true. It would be quite convenient for all of us, if the CEO would look at a rejected deal, realize how truly hurt and upset the pilots were and then salve us all with heaping tablespoon of cash. I am not sure how people that have been around this industry very long can contend that, look at history and that is not the experience that labor groups have had.
From a practical standpoint, how could a CEO draw a line ever in any negotiation if it was known that his bottom line still had a lot of slop left? How many times would the CEO respond to a no vote with more money? Would this continually work, vote no and more cash rolls in, or is there some limit? If there is some limit, how would we know when to stop?
Perhaps some of this “hope strategy” comes from the fact that line pilots are not there for the constant back and forth of negotiation. They only see the final result of what were hundreds of offers/counteroffers made in this deal. Perhaps they conclude that the negotiation process is still in its infancy and there is more to go. This is not the first offer, nor the hundredth, but the result of over 350 different proposals. If someone places some magical hope in the 351st offer, that that particular one would do the trick, then again this is based more on wishing that were true rather than on any real logic.
Remember, this deal is the combination of multiple negotiations, with Boeing/Southwest and/or Airbus, all the DCI carriers (except Comair because we own them), regional jet manufacturers, and debt/leaseholders. All of these deals had to come together pretty much all at once because they are all dependent upon each other. If Delta rewards pilots for unraveling this complicated deal, then how would all these other parties respond? It’s good to think of various options and consider all aspects of a deal, but self-delusion is not a basis for strategic planning. There is no bag of money waiting under the CEO’s desk that we simply have to ask for and he will hand it over.
Timeline
A lot of pilots have questions about the timeline. Why July 1st? Why the rush? Did we get pushed into making a quick deal?
Let’s go to the last point first. Go back to the MEC communications from all last year. It was ALPA that wanted to move quickly on negotiations. We did not want to wait for years past our amendable date, so we had been quite insistent to management that they put us back on their “to-do list” so that we could have a deal done by the amendable date. That is why we started our contract preparations so early. We had the contract history, contract comparison, and contract survey all completed more than a year before our amendable date. The idea that we got pushed into some rush deal just doesn’t match the facts. We wanted them to negotiate.
Delta did see an opportunity, but it was an opportunity that had a short shelf life. There are fleet plans from multiple airlines, staffing plans, and manufacturing deadlines all dependent upon the timing of this deal. We are already selling tickets for Spring Break 2013 and so these fleet plans cannot wait until the last minute. Delta is already planning on posting bids for 717’s in the fall, there is not much slop left in that timing. So speed is money and if you slow things down you have less money.
Deadlines are difficult to measure. What if we are done by July 2nd, does the whole deal fall apart? The best analogy is if you were 30 or 40 feet from the edge of the Grand Canyon and you put on a blind fold and start walking towards the cliff. At first, you can take steps with a lot of confidence. Later, your progress would become more tentative moving to small baby steps. At some point you would stop because you know if you take one step too far you are off the cliff. Everyone involved in this negotiation thinks we are pretty close to the edge right now.
A practical application
We saw many of these principles play out in the negotiations surrounding the merger. Delta wanted to move quickly on the merger. Just as in this negotiation, WE CAME TO THEM asking for a deal. We both had bankruptcy deals that lasted for years into the future and we told them that we could speed up the deal in exchange for money and stock. Speed is money. We told them that we would wrap up the seniority integration quickly in exchange for money. Delta had a timeline that was less definite than today but there were time considerations. A Presidential election was coming up in the fall and Delta wanted the current government to review the merger and not take a chance on the next.
We started negotiations in January and after several rounds into March there was no deal. The JCBA negotiations were finalized but no seniority deal. The corporate negotiations were also in fits and starts but no final deal. This created a moving timeline that led some to believe there was no timeline and the world would wait for us forever. In the waning days of March, both MEC’s were given a call, the merger was happening with or without us, we had 14 days to try to reach a deal or the company would just go the traditional route. We had gone off the edge of the cliff but we had a lifeline for 14 days and then it was down to the bottom. People that had talked about “false deadlines” found out what a real deadline looked like.
So we grabbed the lifeline and negotiated LOA 19 and then the JCBA. Speed was money and we cost them time so there was less money. Like about $250 million less. That money will never come back. Ouch, that was a painful lesson about what it’s like to step over the edge.
Conclusion
My view is that this deal has a much steeper cliff than even the merger. Delta has to make long range decisions about issues that take years to accomplish and not months. They have a plan to move forward without us, the MEC has seen it, and it doesn’t involve a billion dollars coming into our pockets over the next three years.
It has been a tragic decade for this industry and especially for airline pilots. Almost every other pilot group has approached the recovery from this tragedy as a make or break, take it or leave it proposition. They have achieved nothing. You have a series of poor leaders that get the short term sugar high of calling their management a bunch of thieves. Everyone slaps them on the back for a while until they realize they have gone another 3, 4, or 5+ years without a penny of gain. Yipee, he voted no, isn’t he a hero.
So when I see the “Vote No and they will give us more” arguments, I personally see more of this failed strategy. Whatever short term sugar high you get for sticking it to the man, will get erased when you start adding up the dollars and Delta pilot jobs you just threw away. In my opinion, you will get three or four years to figure that out.
These are my personal thoughts and that is all. They don’t represent the views of anyone else or any organization.
What happens if we say no?
The common forum wisdom is that if we say no, then Delta management will simply roll over and start dishing out money to us. I haven’t seen one shred of analysis to give any credence to this contention and so I assume that this belief is based on the individual merely hoping it was true. It would be quite convenient for all of us, if the CEO would look at a rejected deal, realize how truly hurt and upset the pilots were and then salve us all with heaping tablespoon of cash. I am not sure how people that have been around this industry very long can contend that, look at history and that is not the experience that labor groups have had.
From a practical standpoint, how could a CEO draw a line ever in any negotiation if it was known that his bottom line still had a lot of slop left? How many times would the CEO respond to a no vote with more money? Would this continually work, vote no and more cash rolls in, or is there some limit? If there is some limit, how would we know when to stop?
Perhaps some of this “hope strategy” comes from the fact that line pilots are not there for the constant back and forth of negotiation. They only see the final result of what were hundreds of offers/counteroffers made in this deal. Perhaps they conclude that the negotiation process is still in its infancy and there is more to go. This is not the first offer, nor the hundredth, but the result of over 350 different proposals. If someone places some magical hope in the 351st offer, that that particular one would do the trick, then again this is based more on wishing that were true rather than on any real logic.
Remember, this deal is the combination of multiple negotiations, with Boeing/Southwest and/or Airbus, all the DCI carriers (except Comair because we own them), regional jet manufacturers, and debt/leaseholders. All of these deals had to come together pretty much all at once because they are all dependent upon each other. If Delta rewards pilots for unraveling this complicated deal, then how would all these other parties respond? It’s good to think of various options and consider all aspects of a deal, but self-delusion is not a basis for strategic planning. There is no bag of money waiting under the CEO’s desk that we simply have to ask for and he will hand it over.
Timeline
A lot of pilots have questions about the timeline. Why July 1st? Why the rush? Did we get pushed into making a quick deal?
Let’s go to the last point first. Go back to the MEC communications from all last year. It was ALPA that wanted to move quickly on negotiations. We did not want to wait for years past our amendable date, so we had been quite insistent to management that they put us back on their “to-do list” so that we could have a deal done by the amendable date. That is why we started our contract preparations so early. We had the contract history, contract comparison, and contract survey all completed more than a year before our amendable date. The idea that we got pushed into some rush deal just doesn’t match the facts. We wanted them to negotiate.
Delta did see an opportunity, but it was an opportunity that had a short shelf life. There are fleet plans from multiple airlines, staffing plans, and manufacturing deadlines all dependent upon the timing of this deal. We are already selling tickets for Spring Break 2013 and so these fleet plans cannot wait until the last minute. Delta is already planning on posting bids for 717’s in the fall, there is not much slop left in that timing. So speed is money and if you slow things down you have less money.
Deadlines are difficult to measure. What if we are done by July 2nd, does the whole deal fall apart? The best analogy is if you were 30 or 40 feet from the edge of the Grand Canyon and you put on a blind fold and start walking towards the cliff. At first, you can take steps with a lot of confidence. Later, your progress would become more tentative moving to small baby steps. At some point you would stop because you know if you take one step too far you are off the cliff. Everyone involved in this negotiation thinks we are pretty close to the edge right now.
A practical application
We saw many of these principles play out in the negotiations surrounding the merger. Delta wanted to move quickly on the merger. Just as in this negotiation, WE CAME TO THEM asking for a deal. We both had bankruptcy deals that lasted for years into the future and we told them that we could speed up the deal in exchange for money and stock. Speed is money. We told them that we would wrap up the seniority integration quickly in exchange for money. Delta had a timeline that was less definite than today but there were time considerations. A Presidential election was coming up in the fall and Delta wanted the current government to review the merger and not take a chance on the next.
We started negotiations in January and after several rounds into March there was no deal. The JCBA negotiations were finalized but no seniority deal. The corporate negotiations were also in fits and starts but no final deal. This created a moving timeline that led some to believe there was no timeline and the world would wait for us forever. In the waning days of March, both MEC’s were given a call, the merger was happening with or without us, we had 14 days to try to reach a deal or the company would just go the traditional route. We had gone off the edge of the cliff but we had a lifeline for 14 days and then it was down to the bottom. People that had talked about “false deadlines” found out what a real deadline looked like.
So we grabbed the lifeline and negotiated LOA 19 and then the JCBA. Speed was money and we cost them time so there was less money. Like about $250 million less. That money will never come back. Ouch, that was a painful lesson about what it’s like to step over the edge.
Conclusion
My view is that this deal has a much steeper cliff than even the merger. Delta has to make long range decisions about issues that take years to accomplish and not months. They have a plan to move forward without us, the MEC has seen it, and it doesn’t involve a billion dollars coming into our pockets over the next three years.
It has been a tragic decade for this industry and especially for airline pilots. Almost every other pilot group has approached the recovery from this tragedy as a make or break, take it or leave it proposition. They have achieved nothing. You have a series of poor leaders that get the short term sugar high of calling their management a bunch of thieves. Everyone slaps them on the back for a while until they realize they have gone another 3, 4, or 5+ years without a penny of gain. Yipee, he voted no, isn’t he a hero.
So when I see the “Vote No and they will give us more” arguments, I personally see more of this failed strategy. Whatever short term sugar high you get for sticking it to the man, will get erased when you start adding up the dollars and Delta pilot jobs you just threw away. In my opinion, you will get three or four years to figure that out.
06-15-2012, 01:42 PM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
Too late to try and sway people's minds. The alpa desperation is thick. We're in a position no differently than is 5 more lec reps also voted to not send out. We would already be heading back to the table for more goodies.
5 years ago, the net jets pilots voted to turn down the initial TA. A year later, they received 40% more with much better work rules. The CEO came out and publically stated that he was sorry that he underestimated the resolve of the pilots.
5 years ago, the net jets pilots voted to turn down the initial TA. A year later, they received 40% more with much better work rules. The CEO came out and publically stated that he was sorry that he underestimated the resolve of the pilots.
06-15-2012, 01:49 PM
#3
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
Too late to try and sway people's minds. The alpa desperation is thick. We're in a position no differently than is 5 more lec reps also voted to not send out. We would already be heading back to the table for more goodies.
5 years ago, the net jets pilots voted to turn down the initial TA. A year later, they received 40% more with much better work rules. The CEO came out and publically stated that he was sorry that he underestimated the resolve of the pilots.
5 years ago, the net jets pilots voted to turn down the initial TA. A year later, they received 40% more with much better work rules. The CEO came out and publically stated that he was sorry that he underestimated the resolve of the pilots.
06-15-2012, 01:51 PM
#4
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
alfa,
What are your thoughts on these items?
Is a potential move from Narita to Haneda addressed in this contract? Does it protect pilot jobs?
If JAL leaves from One World (AMR) and joins SkyTeam (Delta), what happens to our south (5th freedom) flying?
How many top level jobs could we lose? Where do those pilots displace too? Are we not overstaffed now? What happens if the 250-300 pilots expected to retire do not do so?
Are you ok with the potential for the company to access your medical records in order to get 100% sick paid?
ALV plus 15 for reserves—How much efficiency does this gain mean to staffing? Does this lead to less green slip opportunities? Does quality of life matter?
Does 4%, 8.5%, 3% and 3% for 42 months keep up with inflation? Does this meet your survey expectations?
Do 88 717s really mean 88 aircraft worth of growth? What happens to older MD-88s, A320s, and 757s? Again, higher paying aircraft retiring and lower paying aircraft being acquired.
Are you ok with the numerical increase in more two-class 76 regional aircraft?
What are your thoughts on these items?
Is a potential move from Narita to Haneda addressed in this contract? Does it protect pilot jobs?
If JAL leaves from One World (AMR) and joins SkyTeam (Delta), what happens to our south (5th freedom) flying?
How many top level jobs could we lose? Where do those pilots displace too? Are we not overstaffed now? What happens if the 250-300 pilots expected to retire do not do so?
Are you ok with the potential for the company to access your medical records in order to get 100% sick paid?
ALV plus 15 for reserves—How much efficiency does this gain mean to staffing? Does this lead to less green slip opportunities? Does quality of life matter?
Does 4%, 8.5%, 3% and 3% for 42 months keep up with inflation? Does this meet your survey expectations?
Do 88 717s really mean 88 aircraft worth of growth? What happens to older MD-88s, A320s, and 757s? Again, higher paying aircraft retiring and lower paying aircraft being acquired.
Are you ok with the numerical increase in more two-class 76 regional aircraft?
06-15-2012, 01:59 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
DAL is forecast to make Billions.
06-15-2012, 02:08 PM
#6
Moderator
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: B757/767
Posts: 13,088
So your stipulation is that their pay rates caused the furloughs? The furloughs are simply a function of the downturn in their part of the industry primarily due to the economy. They aren't making money. Besides, they have a smaller percentage of furloughs than most of their cheaper (including pilots) competitors.
DAL is forecast to make Billions.
DAL is forecast to make Billions.
06-15-2012, 02:08 PM
#7
Happy to be here
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: A-320A
Posts: 18,563
Do not forget that they are a niche part of the market, and much of that market came back to the airlines in the last downturn. Those newly minted millionaires could not afford their private jets. If they end up having to go though security, we will see more return as well.
06-15-2012, 02:11 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,530
I agree. Still hugely behind SWA by way of total compensation AND days off. Even in 2015.
06-15-2012, 02:21 PM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,619
alfa,
What are your thoughts on these items?
Is a potential move from Narita to Haneda addressed in this contract? Does it protect pilot jobs?
If JAL leaves from One World (AMR) and joins SkyTeam (Delta), what happens to our south (5th freedom) flying?
How many top level jobs could we lose? Where do those pilots displace too? Are we not overstaffed now? What happens if the 250-300 pilots expected to retire do not do so?
Are you ok with the potential for the company to access your medical records in order to get 100% sick paid?
ALV plus 15 for reserves—How much efficiency does this gain mean to staffing? Does this lead to less green slip opportunities? Does quality of life matter?
Does 4%, 8.5%, 3% and 3% for 42 months keep up with inflation? Does this meet your survey expectations?
Do 88 717s really mean 88 aircraft worth of growth? What happens to older MD-88s, A320s, and 757s? Again, higher paying aircraft retiring and lower paying aircraft being acquired.
Are you ok with the numerical increase in more two-class 76 regional aircraft?
What are your thoughts on these items?
Is a potential move from Narita to Haneda addressed in this contract? Does it protect pilot jobs?
If JAL leaves from One World (AMR) and joins SkyTeam (Delta), what happens to our south (5th freedom) flying?
How many top level jobs could we lose? Where do those pilots displace too? Are we not overstaffed now? What happens if the 250-300 pilots expected to retire do not do so?
Are you ok with the potential for the company to access your medical records in order to get 100% sick paid?
ALV plus 15 for reserves—How much efficiency does this gain mean to staffing? Does this lead to less green slip opportunities? Does quality of life matter?
Does 4%, 8.5%, 3% and 3% for 42 months keep up with inflation? Does this meet your survey expectations?
Do 88 717s really mean 88 aircraft worth of growth? What happens to older MD-88s, A320s, and 757s? Again, higher paying aircraft retiring and lower paying aircraft being acquired.
Are you ok with the numerical increase in more two-class 76 regional aircraft?
If JAL joins Skyteam then we will have a stronger position in Japan and in Haneda. If Delta wanted to form a JV with JAL we now have contractual provisions to guarantee Delta pilots a share of the JV. No such protection exists today.
What happens under the current contract if Delta displaces from the top positions? When has that ever not been true in this industry for at least 30 years. Does anyone think that a large number of pilots will apply for this early out? What early out program do we have under the current contract?
Delta has the right to request your medical records every time you are sick under the current contract. The TA has new restrictions. How is this worse?
I don't know how many times this issue has been hammered into the ground. Someone isn't paying attention.
Inflation has averaged around 2-3% for the last few years. So yes it beats inflation. I expected to be a major league center fielder when I was 10. Sometimes expectations are not met. Does a no vote guarantee that your expectations will be met in the future?
Somehow, the 737-900's are being ignored. What protections do we have under the current flying to guarantee mainline share of flying? What do we have under the TA? Are the TA guarantees better than we have today?
This is about the only valid point here. This is a trade. We get stronger Scope protections in exchange for this concession. Since they could go to 255 76 seaters eventually, the real concession was for 70 70 seat aircraft that would have to be disposed to increase 76 seaters.
The central problem in all of these questions is not does this TA protect me from every possibility that exists in the industry, but does the TA provide better protections than we have now? In almost every case the answer is that the TA provides better protections. The next question is can we find a deal in the near future.
I don't know where these questions came from but it seems to me that someone is fear mongering over issues that we will never have control over. If someone is scared over this issue then someone should explain to them that in almost every case this TA improves protections for Delta pilots. And they oppose that why?
06-15-2012, 02:25 PM
#10
Back on TDY
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: 747-400 Captain
Posts: 12,487
Too late to try and sway people's minds. The alpa desperation is thick. We're in a position no differently than is 5 more lec reps also voted to not send out. We would already be heading back to the table for more goodies.
5 years ago, the net jets pilots voted to turn down the initial TA. A year later, they received 40% more with much better work rules. The CEO came out and publically stated that he was sorry that he underestimated the resolve of the pilots.
5 years ago, the net jets pilots voted to turn down the initial TA. A year later, they received 40% more with much better work rules. The CEO came out and publically stated that he was sorry that he underestimated the resolve of the pilots.
This is an axiom that simply cannot be ignored. There is very little gained in life without risk. No way around it.
Carl
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