Delta and TPG look To put bid on AMR Corp
01-14-2012, 07:30 AM
#161
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2005
Posts: 60
All you M&A speculators ought to take a look at the makeup of the creditors committee and consider what's in the best interest of those stakeholders (ie. Boeing, HP, APA, APFA, TWU), because they'll heavily influence the outcome. Also consider what's in the interest of the other big dogs (ie. IAG) in One World, because as we saw with JAL, at the end of the day, cash will materialize to fend off predators if the alliance is threatened.
Not saying a merger can't happen, but given the cash position of AMR and the interests of the stakeholders, there's a bias towards emerging as an independent.
One other thing to consider is that the defined benefit pensions were funded greater than 80% as recently as November. They will certainly be an issue in the bankruptcy process, but reaching a resolution (freeze, termination + equity stake to PBGC, transition to defined contribution) may not be as difficult as some in the media are currently making it.
Not saying a merger can't happen, but given the cash position of AMR and the interests of the stakeholders, there's a bias towards emerging as an independent.
One other thing to consider is that the defined benefit pensions were funded greater than 80% as recently as November. They will certainly be an issue in the bankruptcy process, but reaching a resolution (freeze, termination + equity stake to PBGC, transition to defined contribution) may not be as difficult as some in the media are currently making it.
01-14-2012, 07:45 AM
#163
No longer cares
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 767er Captain
Posts: 12,109
Bull hockey. Alaska is a thriving company in a horrid industry. They are the leader in the remaining area of the country that the purple plague does not dominate. I am sure that Gary Icahn has wet dreams about an acquisition of Alaska, but unfortunately for him the price is well beyond his checking account. (Not to mention that the labor groups at Alaska wouldn't fall for his threats of dismemberment) 'Takeover' is way too expensive regardless of who is attempting it. As it stands right now, the symbiosis between DAL and AK is pretty beneficial for both companies regardless of whether AMR remains as a real competitor in the theatre. We as pilots might not like it, but the mutual benefits that both companys receive make them pretty damn valuable going forward.
01-14-2012, 08:03 AM
#165
Senior by choice
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 427
Bull hockey. Alaska is a thriving company in a horrid industry. They are the leader in the remaining area of the country that the purple plague does not dominate. I am sure that Gary Icahn has wet dreams about an acquisition of Alaska, but unfortunately for him the price is well beyond his checking account. (Not to mention that the labor groups at Alaska wouldn't fall for his threats of dismemberment) 'Takeover' is way too expensive regardless of who is attempting it. As it stands right now, the symbiosis between DAL and AK is pretty beneficial for both companies regardless of whether AMR remains as a real competitor in the theatre. We as pilots might not like it, but the mutual benefits that both companys receive make them pretty damn valuable going forward.
01-14-2012, 08:05 AM
#166
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: 757 Left
Posts: 1,309
Exactly. Had breakfast with an AA capt in HI. Great guy, worrying himself sick about this stupid industry. All the best to the AA guys and girls.
01-14-2012, 08:06 AM
#167
Senior by choice
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 427
All you M&A speculators ought to take a look at the makeup of the creditors committee and consider what's in the best interest of those stakeholders (ie. Boeing, HP, APA, APFA, TWU), because they'll heavily influence the outcome. Also consider what's in the interest of the other big dogs (ie. IAG) in One World, because as we saw with JAL, at the end of the day, cash will materialize to fend off predators if the alliance is threatened.
Not saying a merger can't happen, but given the cash position of AMR and the interests of the stakeholders, there's a bias towards emerging as an independent.
One other thing to consider is that the defined benefit pensions were funded greater than 80% as recently as November. They will certainly be an issue in the bankruptcy process, but reaching a resolution (freeze, termination + equity stake to PBGC, transition to defined contribution) may not be as difficult as some in the media are currently making it.
Not saying a merger can't happen, but given the cash position of AMR and the interests of the stakeholders, there's a bias towards emerging as an independent.
One other thing to consider is that the defined benefit pensions were funded greater than 80% as recently as November. They will certainly be an issue in the bankruptcy process, but reaching a resolution (freeze, termination + equity stake to PBGC, transition to defined contribution) may not be as difficult as some in the media are currently making it.
01-14-2012, 08:06 AM
#168
Banned
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,480
Just spitballing here, but is there a chance ALK could make a merger play for AMR?
Figuring ALK has been performing well over the last few years, and while I haven't looked at the amount of money they have on hand, I figure they are probably in a good financial position and right-sized to lock up with AMR.
Figuring ALK has been performing well over the last few years, and while I haven't looked at the amount of money they have on hand, I figure they are probably in a good financial position and right-sized to lock up with AMR.
We do.
I am sure that Gary Icahn has wet dreams about an acquisition of Alaska, but unfortunately for him the price is well beyond his checking account....'Takeover' is way too expensive regardless of who is attempting it. As it stands right now, the symbiosis between DAL and AK is pretty beneficial for both companies regardless of whether AMR remains as a real competitor in the theatre.
It would be cheaper and easier for DAL to grab AA.
01-14-2012, 08:19 AM
#169
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: MSP7ERB
Posts: 1,886
I think the most realistic option, if I were a pilot for American, would be a US Air-American merger, and renaming the new company American because of name recognition. That would make them competitive with UCal & DAL.
01-14-2012, 08:29 AM
#170
Doesn't Get Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,598
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