MistyFAC

+1 I also think this would be the way things need to play out. I believe that somewhere someone has said that there needs to be more consolidation on the LCC level. Correct me if I'm wrong.

zoooropa

The easiest answer to your question is economics. Pure economics is driving both the seperation and the fleet plan. More on this in a moment.

I take exception to the notion that we "gave up scope" with LOA 39. We actually greatly increased our scope protections. As BB noted very clearly, we never had any scope protection with regard to the 190's. BB had established a code share with YX and the 190's were operating as YX flights. We didn't have code share protection within our Section 1 and we were not going to have a chance at limiting code share agreements as we exited BK. We did the next logical thing and established criteria and requirements for future aircraft deliveries, something we did not have at the time. Any aircraft between 120k lbs and 255k lbs is put on the Frontier certificate and flown by Frontier pilots.

I have never understood the "whipsaw" concept at RAH, but according to our CBA, BB can't put airbus on any other certificate than F9's. He asked about putting 190's on the F9 certificate during the LOA 67 negotiations (including pay raises in every longevity/seat when compared to your CBA) but we said no thanks. They still may end up with F9 if and when we seperate but if they do you will be "whipsawed" into a CBA with better pay and benefits.

Back to the "economics". BB is rapidly increasing the size of aircraft and/or seating capacity at Frontier. We took delivery of 7 320's in 2011 and we are returning 4 319's in 1Q 2012 along with 4 318's during the year. We are adding seats to the 319's and 320's. There will be more 320's arriving soon (1st and 2nd quarter of 2012), some of which will be flying around without F9 paint because the company wants the capacity as soon as possible.

There are zero additional 190 deliveries scheduled, and EMB returned several million dollars of Pre Delivery Payments (in case anyone was wondering if BB was just bluffing about the 190's).

BB negotiated Airbus NEO prices by leveraging the Cseries order against airbus. Airbus wanted the cseries program to die, and matched the cost of the RAH cseries price. BB has the lowest priced NEO's on the planet. Even if the Cseries is built, you won't see RAH pay for 120 seats when they can get 168.

The company wants as many 168 seat aircraft as possible. The 118 seat 318 wasn't doing the job, nor is the 136 seat 319. The company also has a new fancy schmancy scheduling/revenue program that they use in an effort to match the most economical gauge aircraft on each segment. Almost ever time they request a solution, the answer is a 320.

MKE has transitioned from 320 to mostly 190, while the exact opposite has occured at MCI. This is a result of the scheduling/revenue program. The yields are higher in MCI than in MKE. If they had more 320's, they would have grown MCI without reducing MKE. When the next 320's arrive they will back fill MKE and increase the Florida flying that the 190's are doing today.

Sorry for the long answer, but the combination of airbus scope protections, airbus vs 190 economics, and the aircraft delivery schedule for the next decade all point towards more 320's and less of everything else. This being aviation, who knows what will happen, but airbus growth at Frontier and furthur LCC consolidation seem to be the most likely near term events.

If I were on the RAH side of the house, I would focus all of my energy trying to get the 190's (along with the current 190 pilots) on the F9 certificate ASAFP.

Captbimmer

I've heard that jetBlue is merging with Great Lakes next month

Great Santini

Nice informative post Zoooropa. Captbimmer, not so much. Its interesting how these boards can be used for valuable exchange of information and ideas and then there can be such inanity thrown in the mix for no logical reason. Maybe I'm just getting old.

In any event, I agree that RAH is, out of necessity, separating Frontier from the holding company which will result in the longer term benefit of both pilot groups (RAH/F9). The first stage of separation will most likely be a closely held "friends of the corporation" deal and the second stage will be either an IPO or a straight consolidation transaction by another carrier. In either case the shareholders of RAH will most likely recover and possibly profit from their F9 investment. There is much potential for this airline going forward, but peril is just around the corner for all of us.

WHACKMASTER

We routinely taxi/taxied the -700 under the bridge. No ding so far. I'm not certain as our AOM doesn't contain -800 dimension, the tail is lower on that series and of course the Classics have shorter tails. Btw, the dimensions you quoted are what I show as well.

Climbto450

I hope you are joking because nobody with half a brain or better could take this serious. Please either contribute or make it clear that you are joking in the future.

planediveguy

Zooropa,

I sincerely hope you are right... but there is a scenario you should also consider...

The whole Embraer thing is not set on stone, I have info that BB actually has told them we would get not only the remaining 4 aircraft that were ordered, but only two delivered, but potentially an additional 24 aircraft, totalling 30 more E-190/195s. And this info did not come from our management...

The hard to understand "whipsaw" concept is that this management team is very smart when using the "bait and switch" tactics... they are telling you FAPA guys what you want to hear, but when all is said and done, you might see a delay on those A-320 and Neo orders, and they might use their usual accounting tricks to lure you into a lower pay and reduced QOL by threatening you with the increase in flying by us, lower paid "regional" pilots... whipsawing you with our crappy conditions...

There is also a strong rumor about Spirit being interested in F9, if that happens, oh well, do you think you will keep your pay scales? or get Spirit's?

As a "junior" RAH FO, I welcome the separation, since I then might be able to upgrade one day, the current deal allow you guys to take a seat on the 190,, but our guys have a 7 year fence...that is if I decide to stay here. As is we are losing a lot of guys to Emirates and other carriers. With the hiring boom looming in the horizon, I doubt any of us, save for the few "dinosaurs" will stay at RAH, the parking of the 140/145's might mitigate a little of the attrition, but most likely in 7 years RAH and many regionals might not be in business.

You were all so concerned about our guys flowing through you precious Airbuses, but in reality most of us never thought about getting "your seat". And F9 is not a major carrier by any means. Great guys and gals there and I have many friends flying with you guys, but thruth of the matter is there is nothing special about F9, besides the fact that the Denver hippies like the little "Disney Animal Kingdom" home airline.

I sincerely hope this turns out for the better for F9 and RAH peeps, but I am doubtful.

jungleguppy

sarcsm det fail

zoooropa

Thanks for your post but I am having a difficult time tracking your point.

Your initial scenario includes a lot of 190 and 195 deliveries. RAH is having difficulty finding a home for 120 seat 318's, and they are planning on parking four 138 seat 319's. Why in the world would they try and replace these aircraft with smaller gauge aircraft? The short answer is they will not be adding any 99-120 seat aircraft in the near future. Consider the following, Lynx (Frontier Airline Holdings) agreed to lease rates on a Q400 that are currently more expensive than third party leases on A-320's. The narrow body market is a buyers wet-dream. Bedford isn't going to buy a brand new EMB anything when he can lease used 320's for bargain rates.

There are a number of rumors about Spirit, or Oaktree to be more accurate. The recent Spirit CBA has virtually the same hourly pay rates as we do at F9. With that being said, no one would instantly assume an existing hourly rate just as we have not assumed your rates after the Frontier purchase by RAH.

Finally, I appreciate your explanation about "whipsaw". I have asked over and over and over for an explanation, but no one from RAH would answer my request.

The truth of the matter, as you so eloquently explained, is that there is no whipsaw threat. The 2000 RAH pilots will not be whipsawed into higher paying rates, and the company has already offered FAPA higher 190 rates than you currently have in the event that the 190's end up on our certificate. I will sleep better tonight knowing that we don't have to worry about the dreaded whipsaw.

I truly wish you the best, but I would be remiss not to comment on your expectation of a "hiring boom on the horizon".

The DAL-NWA merger is complete.
The UAL-CAL merger is in progress.
The AA BK has just begun.

The US economy is a total disaster, the second largest economy on the planet looks alot like our economy did in early 2008, and western Europe is about to unwind.

Other than the middle east and a few asian carriers, I wouldn't hold my breath for a "mainline" job in the near future.

planediveguy

I hope you are right Zoo... but Bedfod could pretty much turn around and after our new contract is signed (and I will bet money we will not get "Jet Blue or better" rates for the 190's) and the separation is concluded and change things. I hope your economics are correct, but somehow I still find it hard to believe these guys will not screw us all over a penny.

It is not a "whipsaw" if the result is better pay... so you guys cannot "whipsaw" us into a better contract... our hopes were that by being a single carrier, we could demand our side to be treated fairly and thus improve our situation.

I just do not want to hear the word "Scab" thrown around in case my nightmare scenario comes true and you guys get screwed like the Medex guys did...