Delta Ponders Pilot Sources
04-23-2011, 09:02 PM
#91
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: Self employed
Posts: 3,048
Nobody mentioned how many of those FAA pilot certificates go to foreign nationals who will never fly for hire in the USA.... well, it might be in the USA, but their paycheque will be paid in a currency other than $$$$.
04-23-2011, 09:14 PM
#92
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Poodle Whisperer
Posts: 17,473
I say our next contract at DL be negotiated with pay based on the swiss frank.
04-23-2011, 10:53 PM
#93
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
42,000 Pilots
I didn't initially believe your numbers concerning commercial pilots, but you are pretty close.
US Civil Airmen Statistics
As you have said before, there might be a shortage of people willing to work at the regionals but there will never be a shortage of people trying to get hired at a major.
US Civil Airmen Statistics
As you have said before, there might be a shortage of people willing to work at the regionals but there will never be a shortage of people trying to get hired at a major.
The real question however really is if the job is even worth it anymore.
Skyhigh
04-23-2011, 11:00 PM
#94
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Future Airline Pilots of America
I remember well the FAPA article in the early 1990's that calculated the value of a career at each legacy airline. The article mentioned that if you worked for UAL (the top airline at the time) for 30 years it was worth $10.5 million dollars when all the benefits and wages were added together.
Now by my loose calculations a legacy career is worth around $2.625 million over 30 years. Then however you must subtract for a self funded retirement, taxes and fortified benefits package. Don't forget to make an allowance for crash pad, the occasional hotel when commuting and food on the road.
But that is it. That sum of money needs to support a family and provide for your needs over the bulk of your lifetime. It has to be enough to cover all the unexpected things that are going to happen like a stock market crash and possible divorce. It just does not seem like it is enough to me.
What is the future going to do to those numbers? There are low cost carriers out there flying the same routes in the same equipment for even less.
Skyhigh
Now by my loose calculations a legacy career is worth around $2.625 million over 30 years. Then however you must subtract for a self funded retirement, taxes and fortified benefits package. Don't forget to make an allowance for crash pad, the occasional hotel when commuting and food on the road.
But that is it. That sum of money needs to support a family and provide for your needs over the bulk of your lifetime. It has to be enough to cover all the unexpected things that are going to happen like a stock market crash and possible divorce. It just does not seem like it is enough to me.
What is the future going to do to those numbers? There are low cost carriers out there flying the same routes in the same equipment for even less.
Skyhigh
04-24-2011, 04:56 AM
#97
The Brown Dot +1
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 777B
Posts: 7,775
I remember well the FAPA article in the early 1990's that calculated the value of a career at each legacy airline. The article mentioned that if you worked for UAL (the top airline at the time) for 30 years it was worth $10.5 million dollars when all the benefits and wages were added together.
Now by my loose calculations a legacy career is worth around $2.625 million over 30 years. Then however you must subtract for a self funded retirement, taxes and fortified benefits package. Don't forget to make an allowance for crash pad, the occasional hotel when commuting and food on the road.
But that is it. That sum of money needs to support a family and provide for your needs over the bulk of your lifetime. It has to be enough to cover all the unexpected things that are going to happen like a stock market crash and possible divorce. It just does not seem like it is enough to me.
What is the future going to do to those numbers? There are low cost carriers out there flying the same routes in the same equipment for even less.
Skyhigh
Now by my loose calculations a legacy career is worth around $2.625 million over 30 years. Then however you must subtract for a self funded retirement, taxes and fortified benefits package. Don't forget to make an allowance for crash pad, the occasional hotel when commuting and food on the road.
But that is it. That sum of money needs to support a family and provide for your needs over the bulk of your lifetime. It has to be enough to cover all the unexpected things that are going to happen like a stock market crash and possible divorce. It just does not seem like it is enough to me.
What is the future going to do to those numbers? There are low cost carriers out there flying the same routes in the same equipment for even less.
Skyhigh
The carrot has become the stick. (overexageration mine)
04-24-2011, 05:47 AM
#98
You scratched my anchor
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 4,948
The legacy airlines collectively have around 42,000 pilots total. Assuming each pilot could enjoy at least a 30 year career that means an average of 1400 replacement pilots per year. If there are 8500 new commercial licenses issued every year on average that is a one in six chance of reaching a legacy airline.
The real question however really is if the job is even worth it anymore.
Skyhigh
The real question however really is if the job is even worth it anymore.
Skyhigh
Last edited by Al Czervik; 04-24-2011 at 05:59 AM.
04-24-2011, 06:08 AM
#99
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
I agree
Is it worth it? Not for the guy that *****es about everything for the entire trip. Depends who you ask. Been doing it for 10 years and things have continually improved for me. Believe your math is skewed. Retirements at DL alone hit 700/800+ many years in the near future. Am I to believe that collectively retirements at all other airlines will not exceed 600/700? Does every individual with commercial have plans to go to the majors? Is the age of the avg pilot at a major top heavy? Someone else mentioned it, know how many Chinese students walk out of this country each year with a commercial? I think you need to revisit your numbers.
I agree. My numbers could be way off. It could be much worse. Some feel that the legacy carriers are going to continue to merge and shrink. In ten years there might not be any recognizable legacy airlines left.
Skyhigh
04-24-2011, 06:18 AM
#100
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
The other day
I look at the situation from the perspective of a pilot who is starting college and flight training this fall.
The other day a young person told me that he was going to have nearly 200k invested into his college and flight training. At the rate that things are going up in price I imagine that in four to five years from now when a new university flight student is finished they could have 250K invested and five lost years of sitting in class. If the university is a private one it could be over 300K.
The cost to get trained and educated is nearly 10% of what the current total career earnings potential is by my loose calculations ($2.625 Million). Not to mention the opportunity cost of what that 300K could have been invested into and the lost years of earning potential while sitting in college for years.
I can not see how this is sustainable at all. The airlines must step up and start training their own pilots from scratch and then working them for decades at a much reduced price to recover their investment. An individual might make that kind of silly investment without figuring the numbers but a company will not.
Skyhigh
The other day a young person told me that he was going to have nearly 200k invested into his college and flight training. At the rate that things are going up in price I imagine that in four to five years from now when a new university flight student is finished they could have 250K invested and five lost years of sitting in class. If the university is a private one it could be over 300K.
The cost to get trained and educated is nearly 10% of what the current total career earnings potential is by my loose calculations ($2.625 Million). Not to mention the opportunity cost of what that 300K could have been invested into and the lost years of earning potential while sitting in college for years.
I can not see how this is sustainable at all. The airlines must step up and start training their own pilots from scratch and then working them for decades at a much reduced price to recover their investment. An individual might make that kind of silly investment without figuring the numbers but a company will not.
Skyhigh
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