Originally Posted by DeadHead (Post 877504)

Do you think a USair and JB tie up would ever fly?

I think that maybe easier to sell back in Washington, but I think USair is unattractive to most companies given their ongoing pilot labor issues.

I can only see integrating another group into that mess as aggravating an already tense situation.

Still think that maybe one of the few options left for old Dougie though.
Funny to think a few years back he was trying to buy us out.
The changes come quick and fast in this industry I guess.

Originally Posted by DeadHead (Post 877504)

Do you think a USair and JB tie up would ever fly?

I think that maybe easier to sell back in Washington, but I think USair is unattractive to most companies given their ongoing pilot labor issues.

I can only see integrating another group into that mess as aggravating an already tense situation.

Still think that maybe one of the few options left for old Dougie though.
Funny to think a few years back he was trying to buy us out.
The changes come quick and fast in this industry I guess.

Originally Posted by tsquare (Post 877499)

I just don't see JB and AMR. They would have to give up a ton of assets in JFK, and I really don't think there is much to gain there without those facilities. The JB terminal is nice, but if they were to merge, it would be sold, and who wants a terminal that has no customs/immigration and has gates fitted to little busses? (Maybe DAL could pick that up cheap and tie together T2 thru T5.) Although, JB is good for increasing SOMEBODY's Caribbean presence, but doesn't AMR already have good lift there?
But Virgin would be an easy way to pick up a few busses. That is interesting.
Allegiant, SunCountry, Spirit and the others out there are wildcards. I really have no clue about any of them.

I think the biggest unknown out there is USAirways. Dougie just cannot sit around and watch the world around him changing and continue to hang on to some sort of misguided belief that he can make things better there with the status quo.

Originally Posted by Sink r8 (Post 877511)

You can merge companies, but you can also spin companies off. If you can back the East and the West from one another, and merge either one with a group that's more like them, perhaps...

Parker isn't going to let LCC die. At some point, he's got to orchestrate something that's suitable for the shareholders. Interested parties might be JBLU, AMR, and DAL. DAL already has a deal for the slot swap, which I think might be approved (DOT is running out of excuses). This in turn gives LCC a more attractive network to complement someone else. The stage is then set for either JBLU or AMR to develop an attractive deal. AMR, for example, is already strong in LGA, and would end up strong in DC.

If not for the labor issues, this would already be a done deal.

Originally Posted by tsquare (Post 877512)

That is an interesting thought. Any group integration with the current USAirways is gonna be a cluster*&% of enormous proportions. Like I said earlier, I think Dougie would be much smarter to spin off one of the companies and then sell/merge with another, but do it right this time. Surely even HE can learn that labor needs to be involved in the process. However, you might be right, because of the non-union nature of JB, they could easily be manipulated to fit into his twisted scheme. I would really feel for the JB people at that point though.

Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 877513)

First, AMR is dropping routes that it competes directly with B6 on. No I am not kidding. Watch their feet. They are setting themselves up for something greater than a code share.

Second, What every Jet Blue and AMR becomes it will have to be closer together at JFK. So AMR's new terminal or B6's terminal would be opened up to other operators.

Third, LLC does need to do something, but splitting the company between AMR and LUV is probably Doug's best option right now.

Originally Posted by DeadHead (Post 877516)

I always thought that LLC's agreement to trade a significant amount of slots in LGA was kind of peculiar. I kind of felt as though LLC, was not so much shrinking capacity to make themselves more attractive to a merger, as much as I felt they maybe trying to step back from the NYC markets in order to make a merger with more fitting with a company already already more stable in this market.

It's not so much re-sizing the company, as much as it was a move to shift the company into something that would align better for either a merger or acquisition.

I'm not sure they are the last one's standing at the ball looking for a dance partner, but they sure as heck ain't the prettiest gal in the room.

Originally Posted by NuGuy (Post 877320)

Heyas,

Interesting development today:

One SWA's entry into ATL:

Strictly defensive and a sign that they've run out of low hanging fruit. You go to where the people are, and not where they're not. That means operating at the "big show" airports like EWR, DCA and ATL.

Now they are merging, operating at delay laden, congested airports and now will be operating more than one aircraft type. Cutesy commercials aside, that looks like a legacy carrier.

Should DAL have anything to fear? Not really. NWA kept SWA at bay in DTW, and DAL has kept them bottled up in SLC for years and years, and the same management team that did so is now running DAL. If anything DAL will benefit by having a more stable competitor that's interested in making money, versus one that is simply trying to stay afloat long enough to be bought. DAL pilots will certainly benefit, as we're now competing with pilots with a higher bar, versus a lower one (no offense to the Tranny guys....we know you were trying), and you can't fight off 737s with RJs.

On the SWA/AirTran SLI:

A tricky one. A 1998 Tranny hire is a captain in the top 10 percent of the whole list..maybe closer to 8th percentile. I doubt that a 1998 hire at SWA is in that percentile, or even close. To do a DOH list, you'd be putting a 98 DOH Tranny guy with whatever a 98 DOH at SWA gets you, which I'm guessing is in the 40ish percentile, a huge destruction in bidding power. OTOH, you do a ratio list, and now your putting a 10th percentile Tranny guy in with a 10th percentile SWA guy (80s hire?), and I don't think that disparate of DOHs will float, even if guys say that DOH doesn't matter.

Don't think ALPA will fight it? Who cares. Not all of AirTran pilot resources are tied up in ALPA. It's going to either wind up as some kind of multi-segment multi-ratio list like the NWA/DAL list, or head to arbitration.

On industry consolidation:

SWA's AirTran deal parks more of Skywests RJs. More metal parked in the desert.

Alaska is next. It's a must win for DAL.

UAL/CAL is going to be ****ed. They just gave up good stuff for nothing. I'd expect that DAL will re-file the slot swap with the DOT ASAP as Tranny gave SWA the slots they were crying about. NO reason for denial now.

JetBlue to AA. Consolidate the NYC market, consolidate the south Florida market, grab some more trans-con, which is traditional AMR territory. A non-union group will be easy pickings, relatively speaking. ALK is outside AMR's core territory, and it'd be hard for them to integrate it into their network to gain any return. Without any significant Pacific ops, ALK for AMR is just more domestic that is vulnerable to SWA, same as TWA. DAL, OTOH, uses it to feed international and gains significant revenue improvement from it.

AAA obviously has some value in their DCA and LGA slots. As this progresses, the parts of that outfit become more valuable than the whole.

The wildcard is FronMidRepublicwestiertauqua. Grow much bigger, and they run the risk of alienating their major partners. But by not growing into something bigger, they run the risk of being priced out of business when the new FTDT rules go into effect.

Spirit? There is some decent international authorities. They mostly compete with AMR, with some DAL. For some outfit wanting to push into the near-international, they'd be a tasty snack.

Or I could be, and usually am, completely wrong....

Nu

Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 877522)

I like the way to see it. DAL will get AS one way or another.

Originally Posted by Sink r8 (Post 877530)

I think we're getting blinded by what we want to see happen, and ignoring the pieces that are actually moving on the chessboard.