nwaf16dude

There is a huge tanker base in Abu Dhabi. Different Emirate, but same country as Dubai.

TheManager

Sailing, no tossing numbers that you remove from your rectum around. Break them down. Show your work! While you are are at it you might as well document your other wild arse claims from post 1397 and referenced in post 1406.

FrankCobretti

As you know, the emirates are pretty loosely bound. They were hardly tripping over themselves to help one another in the economic crisis. In fact, I'll wager that they're economic competitors and that what's good for Emirates Air is bad for other emirates in the UAE.

sailingfun

No I did not. The last effort was heavily backed by management. I have a IM from somewhere here who heard the same thing and I have several emails also pointing in that direction. Even if the principle involved is not working with management the management team will do everything they can to support the effort if they view it as having a chance to succeed. It would be a huge coupe for Delta management. Divide and conquer at the most critical time in history for Delta pilots and a contract coming up.

What is your dues going to be for the new union? 4%? How are they going to build a war chest? How will they get the money and influence in DC to secure a release if needed. How will they build the contacts in DC? Takes years even decades of greasing palms to do that. How are they going to secure a medical team as good as ALPA medical. I have never heard anyone argue they are not the gold standard and they have tremendous influence with FAA medical. Having seen several friends go through medical issues I can assure you not one will vote for DPA.
In the end this effort will not come anywhere near success. It will however take a lot of money out of my pocket in the next contract. A strong united pilot group is the single most important thing we can have for the next contract. Even if they get 25% to mail in ballots it will have a huge negative effect on contract negotiations.
These efforts happen all the time after mergers. Someone does not get what they want and feels left out so they decide to try and take their ball and move to another group of friends and damage the old group. They will succeed in that and it will help management greatly in the next contract.

sailingfun

Delta pilot costs peaked at 2.2 billion dollars a year in the 01 contract. Post chapter 11 costs were around 1.1 million a year pre merger. Current post merger costs are around 1.8 billion. Every reference to a restoration contract mentions adding in for the effects of inflation. To get a restoration contract would require that we increase pay rates to almost double the current rates with the inflation factor. Then we would have to secure the work rule changes we gave up that cost us at least 2000 jobs. Post merger that means hiring a additional 3000 pilot or so. Double the pay rates and add in another 3000 pilots and your going to have to push total costs to 3.8 billion or more. Those who I respect and who want a restoration contract acknowledge it will take something in the area of 2 billion. You need to go from 12,000 to 15,000 pilots and then nearly double the pay rates plus hundreds of other big and small items. If someone can show me how to achieve that I will support them 100 percent. I only have 5 years left around here. For me personally bleed the company dry. If I were a junior guy sticking that kind of expense on the company would scare the hell out of me.

acl65pilot

The difference is the first would have been contractual. By said date we get X back. Could have put a metric in there too, but it is of no consequence since we did not do that. The difference is that one would have been agreed to and the other one needs us to come to an agreement with the company.

I am not saying that we cannot ask for it, what I am saying is that we may not get a response unless you see the above happen. The likeliness of getting restoration with the company a marginal profit would be a long ball. Many of the pilots I fly with understand that for us to get back what was taken the company needs to be doing well. (Operational Profit) FYP, making 500+ million a quarter defiantly puts us in the range of doing well enough to put something like that out there.

In response to T, there is nothing special with six quarters, it is just the number of quarters that will pass until we start the final touches on the opener, Q4 2011 for a Q1 2012 opener.

acl65pilot

Pay rates with cola of 2004 rates will equate to about a 64% bump from today's rates.

That alone is well over a billion.

Add work rules, and DC to that and we are near two billion as you state.

acl65pilot

Like I have told you before, there is no way a 10% bump would get out of the MEC for a section six contract. I would be surprised to see a 25% bump pass as well.

acl65pilot

Here is the math I did on the L and G thread based upon the raises we got last year and this year and their costs as publicly stated at 90 and 75 million respectively.

Here is the Inflation YOY since 2004:
Historical Inflation data from 1914 to the present

Put the link so you can verify the source

2004: 2.68
2005: 3.39
2006: 3.24
2007: 2.85
2008: 3.85
2009: -0.34

For a grand total of 15.67% total inflation since the start of 2004. (liner non compounding math used.) Compounding annually equals about 16.61%

So what you are asking for on Jan 1, 2013 is this:
Lets use 2012 777/744A pay and compare it to 2004 C2K 777 pay of 319 an hr

319-225= 94 dollars per hr up front plus a 15.67% increase on the 319 figure to equal 368.99 per hr from our book of 225, or a 64% increase, correct? (or 65%)

Math 319-225= 94 bump plus inflation=
319x 1.1567=368.99 per hr (or the other way 371.99 per hr)
368.99-225.00= 143.99 per hr immediate increase. (371.99-225= 146.99)

Lets just extrapolate that out a little as well. 5% last year was equal to 90 million. 4% next year is equal to 75 million. Without computing the non-linear data for the next two pay bumps that would equate to a 18-18.75 million dollar per percent increase in the total value of the PWA without costing out more retirement and or work rule improvements.

We on the same page?

We will use 18 million for a uber conservative estimate on pay costs alone.
18 x 64= 1.152 billion dollar increase to the PWA for hourly rates alone (or 18 x 65= 1.170 billion)

Here is the post:
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/875464-post48412.html

I have nothing against trying, but I want all of us to understand what that statement adds up to.

the 18 million a year is taken by dividing the 90 million by 5 for the percentage raise last year. It gives you the cost per percentage at 18 million then you multiply that by the raise needed off current book to get to restoration plus inflation (64%) to get the total cost per year.

scambo1

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Gloopy;

You are too smart to be an airline pilot, what do you do on the side?