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Old 12-13-2018, 08:32 AM
  #171  
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Originally Posted by Xray678
I’ve been told by some management folks at my airline that they are against raising the age. Why? Because of sick leave. Past about age 62 the use of sick leave goes up dramatically. I can only imagine how much sick leave a 70 year old would use.
There are many good reasons the airlines would be opposed to any increase... right up until they have to start parking planes for lack of pilots. If it comes to that, they will push for it.

Creating ab-initio programs and hiring 1500 hour CFI's may not solve all their problems... there would likely be sim bottlenecks for the larger planes, so keeping qualified guys in the seat longer becomes paramount. DAL dodged that bullet when everybody retired early in 2007 by hiring them back as contractors the next day (union agreed to avoid parking all the widebodies)... but that only worked because people retired early to save their lump sum from BK.
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Old 12-13-2018, 08:34 AM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Oh, I agree. I'm just speculating about where the regs might go.

I think it's obvious to almost anyone that lets say 85 is too old, but there's a grey area between 65-85 and if big economics are at stake then regulators and politicians (and unions) might be tempted to play a little in the grey area. As long as some quack can whip up a study showing the risk is not that bad (I'm sure the airlines would pony up for that if needed).

Removing the age limit entirely would necessitate some sort of enhanced medical, which might kick in well before age 65....
Dr Anthony Evans, the now retired ICAO Chief of Medicine Section, was a huge proponent of raising retirement age. He was even working on changing the acceptable incapacitation rate in order to raise the age limit past 65. There are a ton of powerpoint presentations on the web with his name on them. His replacement, Dr Ansa Jordaan, has been silent on this subject. She replaced Dr Evans October 2015.

I wouldn't expect another run at increasing pilot retirement age until Dr Jordaan is replaced, and her replacement will have to be as aggressive on wanting to increase retirement age as Dr Evans was. I don't expect Dr Jordaan to leave her ICAO position for another decade or so.
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Old 12-13-2018, 09:46 AM
  #173  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Dr Anthony Evans, the now retired ICAO Chief of Medicine Section, was a huge proponent of raising retirement age. He was even working on changing the acceptable incapacitation rate in order to raise the age limit past 65. There are a ton of powerpoint presentations on the web with his name on them. His replacement, Dr Ansa Jordaan, has been silent on this subject. She replaced Dr Evans October 2015.

I wouldn't expect another run at increasing pilot retirement age until Dr Jordaan is replaced, and her replacement will have to be as aggressive on wanting to increase retirement age as Dr Evans was. I don't expect Dr Jordaan to leave her ICAO position for another decade or so.
The bureaucracy and personalities can certainly be a regulatory factor. But if the bigs are looking at parking planes, congress can just order the FAA to do it, right now.
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Old 12-13-2018, 10:26 AM
  #174  
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Without any real scientific studies proving flying past 65 is dangerous, it's purely age discrimination to require someone to retire who is still able to pass a 1st class medical. You can't even get your full SS benefits at 65. The rule needs to change so that you can fly as long as you can pass a medical.


I would be in favor of more stringent medical evaluations at a certain age. We all are going to age differently. Some of us are going to be washed up at 55 and other 75. An arbitrary age with no evidence of ineptitude is unjust.
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Old 12-13-2018, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Banzai Pilot
Without any real scientific studies proving flying past 65 is dangerous, it's purely age discrimination to require someone to retire who is still able to pass a 1st class medical. You can't even get your full SS benefits at 65. The rule needs to change so that you can fly as long as you can pass a medical.


I would be in favor of more stringent medical evaluations at a certain age. We all are going to age differently. Some of us are going to be washed up at 55 and other 75. An arbitrary age with no evidence of ineptitude is unjust.
Get.......a........life. Play some golf, travel, volunteer, something. I don't care what you can pass. We don't need 70 year olds in airline cockpits.
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Old 12-13-2018, 11:12 AM
  #176  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Removing the age limit entirely would necessitate some sort of enhanced medical, which might kick in well before age 65....
I think rickair is right. And I think the FAA is walking a fine line. I don’t see them getting rid of all age limits without a tougher physical. They can’t just make the physical tougher for older pilots as some have suggested. That would be age discrimination and there would be a lawsuit. So any medical standards that get changed will apply to all of us. The fine line comes in because the purpose of raising or getting rid of the age limit may be to increase the supply of pilots, but what happens when the new standards start knocking out a bunch of guys below age 65? You could well add to the pilot supply problem as well as severely straining the LTD programs as pilots lose their medical.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:25 PM
  #177  
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Uh, we already discriminate with 6 months/EKGs over 40....
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:26 PM
  #178  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
There are many good reasons the airlines would be opposed to any increase... right up until they have to start parking planes for lack of pilots. If it comes to that, they will push for it.

Creating ab-initio programs and hiring 1500 hour CFI's may not solve all their problems... there would likely be sim bottlenecks for the larger planes, so keeping qualified guys in the seat longer becomes paramount. DAL dodged that bullet when everybody retired early in 2007 by hiring them back as contractors the next day (union agreed to avoid parking all the widebodies)... but that only worked because people retired early to save their lump sum from BK.
The retirements at DAL were mostly in the 2002-03 range. DAL did not dodge a bullet. The program to allow pilots to work after retirement was tied into the company funding 505 early retirements. To allow those 505 pilots to retire over a 12 month period it was agreed some could return post retirement. The average line pilot accepted into the post retirement program worked 45 days beyond their actual retirement date. The early retirement program and the post retirement program were directly tied together.
In 2007 we were hiring pilots and long past the retirement surge.
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:14 PM
  #179  
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Originally Posted by Banzai Pilot
Without any real scientific studies proving flying past 65 is dangerous, it's purely age discrimination to require someone to retire who is still able to pass a 1st class medical. You can't even get your full SS benefits at 65. The rule needs to change so that you can fly as long as you can pass a medical.


I would be in favor of more stringent medical evaluations at a certain age. We all are going to age differently. Some of us are going to be washed up at 55 and other 75. An arbitrary age with no evidence of ineptitude is unjust.
You might want to invest a few minutes reading some of the many scientific studies on the subject matter out there. General population age based incapacitation rates are fine for all intents and purposes. That's what ICAO used to develop their maximum acceptable incapacitation rate.

As far as tightening up the FAA medical, please. The medical's a joke.

Last edited by Andy; 12-13-2018 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:24 PM
  #180  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
The bureaucracy and personalities can certainly be a regulatory factor. But if the bigs are looking at parking planes, congress can just order the FAA to do it, right now.
The FAA only has jurisdiction over domestic flights. ICAO rules need to change. And they won't due to high incapacitation rates in some groups flying under current rules which exceed the ICAO maximum acceptable incapacitation rate.

As far as the big 3 parking planes, that's extremely unlikely. One can speculate on the matter, but it's even less likely that the earth will burn to a crisp due to CAGW.
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