Rider850

That would be 20 years for me. That would be 29 years on furlough.Wouldn't surprise me.

eaglefly

If true, listen for the "click" of a stapler for confirmation. About 500 at AE already have AA numbers and another 800 are supposed to be offered one in a yet to be negotiated agreement at the bottom of the AA list (as per an arbitrator), so that's half the most senior AE pilots anyway.

All a "merge" of the lists would do at this point is give future AA slots to the most junior half of Eagle pilots, but it would then meet the APA's demand of "all flying to be done by AA pilots" and then they'd HAVE to come to the table on scope or they'd be mangled by an arbitrator down the road if they still stonewalled after their most fervant scope demand was met.

I'll believe it when I see it though, but if true, the APA will have to put up or be crushed.

It could be a very shrewd move by AMR and they've little to lose as the arbitrators mandate requires half the Eagle pilots to be given preferential hiring at AA anyway.

swaayze

Actually, AMR has a lot to lose. They want cheaper feed and relaxed scope. The APA would seeming only want this if it tightens scope and increases compensation (why do they care where newhires come from? Another discussion....). Merging the lists theoretically reduces their ability to leverage for both.

eaglefly

What are the other viable options ?

Unless the APA capitulates on scope willingly (highly unlikely), AMR will have to use undesirable methods to get it. The worst case scenario is a BK situation and its pitfalls are known, but if mainline labor strangled them to the point of no choice, they'd have no choice.

Otherwise, it's really about some way to put the conflict into an arbitrators hands who would almost certainly give AMR scope relaxation to what DAL and UAL have and that's lots of 70-seaters and an increasing number of 90-seaters. The byproduct of that is a destruction of any reasonable AA mainline employee interest or quality, since huge job losses and outsourcing would magnify the current anger tenfold.

The shrewd move is to find a way to get most of what they need, while giving mainline labor at least a reasonably palatable future.

The route they choose is still unknown.

NoStep

What other options?
I've got some;
Come to the table with your pilots, flight attendants and mechanics and actually negotiate!!! (You've been AMR'd too long). Dismantle the PUP structure, work with the people who actually run the airline, and lay the groundwork for AA's longevity, take a hatchet to upper level management this time,(AA's still ridiculously top heavy in brass), hedge fuel when SWA does (economy rebounds and oil will go up), stop spending $bill's on bankrupt airline partnerships (JAL), and actually "pull together/win together"? ...

but... they'll find a way to make a bad situation worse...
instead, they'd rather re-invent the wheel every couple of years!

eaglefly

I've been at AMR over 20 years. I've seen all the strategies to date.

To come to the table up until now, is only in the best interest of labor and not AMR, hence with the NMB, the courts and Washington backing big business (especially in precarious financial times), it's a no brainer.

BUT.........eventually this conundrum will have to be faced and not just by AMR, but by the APA. If the APA plays it wrong (emotional) and thinks they'll crumble AMR into a position of hopeless unprofitability, they lose more in the long run then negotiating a reasonabale scope agreement that mimicks the competition. The "line in the sand" is a certain (CERTAIN) path to destruction for the majority of AA pilots and mainline labor overall. It will be VERY painful for AMR to play the pre-pak BK card, but considering the blank check that would result (scope-wise), they'd recoup and thrive far faster then the pilots of AA ever would. It would be a hands down millenial disaster for AA pilots.

The APA (and AA pilots) will ultimately have to take a deep breath and figure out something workable for both sides, unless they want to blow off their nose to spite their face. AMR will also have to come toward center to see the best result for them as well. The "box" will have to be modified somewhat going forward for the APA (if you don't know what the "box" is, contact the APA negotiators in Fort Worth and they may be willing to explain the concept of "the box" and AMR labor negotiations for you...........you'll at least get some insight and education there).

Right now, AMR is in the drivers seat, time is their friend and stalling is in their best interest. However, other competitive issues are closing that to the point that in the near future (perhaps VERY near), certain moves will have to be made.

NoStep

Your assertion that if APA doesn't cave on SCOPE, AMR will go to bk gives too much gravitas to labor costs. Furthermore, although DAL and UAL have more liberal scope, the pendulum is swinging back the other way with CO's more restrictive scope, and DAL's shedding of CPZ triggering a flush of 30-some 76 seaters. The "line in the sand" actually needs to be pushed back further, as management finds new ways to circumvent the intent of scope (e.g. UAL/Aer Lingus) If APA doesn't take a stand this time, they will continue to see AA hollowed-out until it's nothing but an international code-share holding company. The only thing that's stopped AA from farming out domestic to 20 different regionals (i.e. DAL/NWA) is because of Eagle's 16 year contract (IMO).

I did my time working for Crandall, Carty and Arpey...and as much as things seem to change there, they really don't. The same old negotiating tactics and employee group warfare!! (C.R. Smith is rolling in his grave) How about Arpey stops the teamwork lipservice and really work to make AA a legacy to emulate? I DO NOT think time is on management's side on this one...like the current administration, they never let a good crisis go to waste. If/when the economy turns around it's alot harder to cry poor-mouth.

Oh...and the wife works for AA too...I'll have to ask her about "the box"

EagleDriver

Once and for all, everyone listen up!!!!! Pilot salaries don't have a material effect on airline profitability. Also, pilot scope clauses don't have a material effect on airline profitability. Burn those statements into your brain and remember them for the rest of your career.

AA Captains (Narrowbody) earn less than $2.00 per ticket per hour of flight based on a 70% load factor. ($165/hour times 105 people on a 140 seat jet, plus 11% Bfund & 6% Afund, plus medical, vacation) That includes everything, salary, medical, retirement, vacation, sick leave,.... On a three hour flight, DFW-SAN, the Captain is pulling away about $6.00 per passenger for his entire compensation package. How much was that ticket plus bag fees?

If AMR decided to give APA absolutely everything they wanted (it''ll never happen) AMR would need to raise about an extra buck and a half per hour of ticketed flight. I expect pilot "Compensation" costs, not the peripheral crap, will need to rise between .75 and $1.00 per hour of ticket flight. They are getting 25 times that amount from bag fees alone!

AMR is not going bankrupt, not even close. Anyone who believes so is a fool and should quit their job as a pilot now to go sell AMWAY.

This past year, Jun 2009 to June 2010, AMR Decreased their net debt by $500,000,000 and increased their cash position by $2,200,000,000. That's a lot of zeros on the positive side of the balance sheet. Subtract their 359m, 344m, 505m, 11m losses over the last 4 quarters and the negative side of the balance sheet equals about 1,200,000,000. 2.7billion minus 1.2billion shows me that the AMR balance sheet IMPROVED to the tune of $1.5billion dollars over the last year when corporate travel was nonexistant!!!!!! What will happen if the economy recovers and businessmen travel again? (Is it a coincidence that AMR earned about $1.9 billion from bag fees last year?)

Couple these numbers with the ruling in the Frontier bankruptcy and you have your proof that AMR doesn't have any intention of filing Chapter 7. (Oh the Frontier ruling??? The judge ruled that the highest paid executive cannot have his total compensation package exceed 10 times the lowest paid Frontier employee. That equates to a maximum compensation package of $144,000 for the highest paid executive. Does anyone think Arpey or Horton will allow their salary to fall so low when their balance sheet is showing such improvement?)

AMR will eventually pay up as long as the unions don't crumble. How long that will take depends on the NMB and that depends on the nations economy.

TonyWilliams

The pendulum is not swinging back... your own observations about UAL/Lingus suggest otherwise. Continental didn't go back to 50 seat scope.... they just currently have it. And as it joins with UAL, 70 seat scope will magically become the new norm. Already, SkyWest has an agreement with CAL to replace expired lease 50 seaters with 70 seaters.

Mesa may have gone from flying Dash-8's and 50 seat RJ's to ONLY flying 88 seat planes for USAirways. If Mesa doesn't survive, somebody will fly those planes.

3 years ago, 76 seat planes were artificially restricted to 70 seats for Delta by taking the seats out. The planes don't change. They just as quickly went back to 76 seats.

When push comes to shove, you'll have agreements like SkW and AirTran have.... not a contractor... but a code share partner. Now, they can fly A380's, just like Lingus can.

eaglefly

AA is not an LCC. Without a feeder system like their current rivals UAL and DAL, what does AA eventually become ?

Neither legacy, nor LCC and that's not good for AA pilots future. The airline will shrink just as fast this way as any other.

How would AA maintain market share at competitive costs with only 47 70-seat RJ's ?

That's not enough to support their current size, let alone any growth and they'd bail out of many markets handing more and more current and especially future business to the "BIG 2" or LCC's of which they can be neither.

Have you looked at the projections for domestic air travel over the next 10-20 years ?

It skyrockets.


If the APA is successful in strangling this critical revenue source for AA, then they'll only have a smaller AA for AA pilots to fly for, so there is no winner with either strategy, only varying degrees of loss. Both UAL and DAL are going through the beginning stages of merger housecleaning and streamlining efficiency and that will involve them strengthening and growing both their mainline and feed operations, while AA spins their wheels in the mud. They've saved a lot of cash and will need to reinvest and define AA for the future or be left behind as a distant niche player in international and domestic markets, excelling in neither.

BTW, it wasn't just the 16-year contract that previously kept AA from farming out feed, it was also Eagle's position of having an in-house place to shuffle money for profit, loss and tax purposes which worked nicely for the parent. In fact, AMR HAS previously had TSA do AA feed and now has CHQ.....and the 16-year agreement is still in place.

It WILL change though as AMR has to modify both AA and its feed system to stay in line with their competitors or be left in their dust. The old mantra of AMR doing the same thing in the future simply because they did it in the past is careless error......but that's to AMR's advantage, not the APA's.

Strangle regional feed to 47 planes and AA pilots lose. Capitulate on scope (to a certain degree) and AA pilots will likely lose less. Exactly WHAT that capitulation is, is the the critical move.