Whacker77

I'll add my two cents to this discussion even though many won't agree. I think the 1500 hour rule is a noble one, but an impractical one. Simply announcing a number as a hard and fast rule accomplishes nothing. For instance, if the ATP certificate only required 1200 hours, would the cockpits be less safe? What about 2000 hours?

Don't get me wrong, though. I'm as opposed to 250 hour wonders as the next guy, but I think a hard and fast rule doesn't improve the situation. The simple fact is air travel is continuing to increase, even in these economic times, and hiring will have to move to meet the new demands. If the demand is there, I just can't see how airlines can justify remaining artificially small to their shareholders.

I'll be the first to admitt I don't have a good answer to this problem. I think a move like this is going to cause a huge drop off in the number of people attempting to make aviation a career. I also think a perfect storm is brewing with this move and the age 65 rule that could result in a huge shortage of pilots in just a few years. That's just conjecture, though.

What I feel confident in saying is this move will not affect pay at all. As I see it, there's just no link between the two issues. Are regionals, locked in to tough contracts with penny pinching majors, really going to increase pay? I doubt it. I also think it's unfair to compare the 1990's to today. Fifteen years ago, the air travel industry was much smaller than it is today. There are far more planes in use today and that means more pilots.

I am a big proponent of barriers to entry in this business. Starting with 0 hours and hoping to make it an airline is a daunting, time consuming, and financial challenge. It keeps many away. Drawing a line in the sand with 1500 hours, while noble, just isn't the way to do it as far as I'm concerned.

I say all this as a guy with 1300 hours.

Jedinight

After 2012 when pilots in the Legacy carriers start retiring in masses the regional’s will have massive attrition and this time the Pilot factories will need more time to build qualified pilots.

In the past when pilots were needed flight schools would ramp up operation and get pilots ready in 6 to 8 months. Now you will need them to become flight instructors for more than a year after they get their commercial.

TXTECHKA

There's lots of qualified pilots doing other things outside of flying that meet those requirements and more. Hopefully this will help drive wages up but I wouldn't count on it. I've been "retired" (I'm in the business world now) from pro flying for about a year and half and it would take a whole heck of a lot more than I'm sure any airline is willing to offer to get me to put a resume in the mail.

FYI The time wouldn't be a problem, I'm only 26 years old but I'm a 3000TT ATP with cfi, 121 and 135 time.

There's always something in the works to keep pilots hanging on to the hope of a better job but the reality of it is until large numbers of people starting quitting the industry altogether and no one is in the training pipeline then they won't change their practices.

Its simple really from a business owner's standpoint. My bachelor's is in economics and its not difficult to figure out that's exactly what dictates pilot hiring. Pilots are a commodity which is purchased by an airline, if pilot A will work for $19 per hour and pilot B won't work for less than $50 with everything else being basically the same who is going to get hired? The only way the industry will ever change is if pilots quit accepting this poverty wage....Period.

HercDriver130

Lots of good thoughts. I dont think in the short run at least it will effect pay at all. It will make it somewhat harder in the short term to get hired.. and harder perhaps as time goes on.. and down the road some years it might put some pressure on wages.. but I do not believe in the short run it will do that.

Its an "Airline Transport Pilot" certificate.... every airline pilot should have one. That's my opinion.

The crunch will come in that there are fewer and fewer time building jobs out there like there were years ago... so it WILL be more difficult and that will thin the ranks some. In the end... time will tell the story.

Jedinight

I see 2 things may happen; many will not become pilots if regional pay stays as it is. Why waste 60k or more to become a pilot when I’m only going to make 30k at a regional for x amount of years. Of course the recruiters will sell: “you will be Capt or in a Major in 3 years and making 80k plus!!” Which we all know is bull!!

Secondly, many will start and not get done. Not everyone has what it takes to teach for a year and it will be really hard to build time any other way.

Unless you buy time or buy your own Plane. Which not everyone can do and it would be a waste of money in my option.

Another scenario is increased pilots lying on their log book. Forget multiply by 2 some might multiply by 3 or 4 which is not going to help safety at all. I would rather fly with a guy that has 500 hours knowing he may need help than with a guy that says he has 1500 but in reality has only 300 of actual experience and feeling a false sense of security that he could handle an emergency and find myself dealing with reality at that moment.

The Capt was at fault, but the FO was hired with only 250 hours. The Capt. Upgraded from another AC and (I believe) 100 in type. The FO had more hours in type than the Captain but had less than 1500 hours total at the time of the accident. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Airsupport

We have to start somewhere. There needs to be a number. There is a number of hours you need to get your private, a number you need to get for your instrument, a number for your commercial, and a number for your ATP. Now we have hours required if you want to fly airliners.

They wont. They will have to make the job look better if they want people to sign up.

This is exactly what we want. We don't want an industry full of people who paid 70k to go from zero to hero and get into the right seat of a jet. If you want to be a pilot you wont be able to buy the job anymore. You will have to buy your ratings and then get a job flying. You will have to instruct. You will have to fly checks. You will have to do something instead of just paying out cash. This will weed out the people who aren't really ready to put in the effort to get the job.

Yes their is. You said it earlier. Supply and demand. It had an IMMEDIATE direct effect here at pinnacle. The company was going to increase FO pay all on their own about 3 years ago because they couldn't get people to come here. Pinnacle is the last place to throw extra money out there to attract people and they did it because supply was low. The only reason they didn't is because the union said they weren't allowed to break status quo while we were in negotiations. As soon as the hiring boom stopped the company withdrew their offer.

You are almost there. And once you are here you will agree. I know you think a lot of guys here have the I've got mine attitude but you will see soon enough once you are here. This industry and job is going no where fast. You cut off the supply of low time get rich quick pilots and all of our lives will get better.

KC10 FATboy

I still think we should have a professional board that certifies all airline pilots. And yes, at a minimum, you need an ATPL.

Sniper

From the NTSB Report:

The 1500 TT is a good thing for safety, irrespective of both Colgan crew members having more than 1500 hours.

The downside is the potential shortage that may develop. Should US airlines ever have a true pilot shortage, the impetus for the MCL (Multi Crew License) could be that much more difficult to stop.

Hopefully this 'tree' isn't impeding our view of the 'forest' of safety issues.

ToiletDuck

Basically that's what the FAA is.

KC10 FATboy

You're kidding me ....