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Old 07-06-2010, 09:52 PM
  #291  
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NW and DL both had there thumb on our hiring practices. Now that we are no longer a WO I don't know why DL would want anything to do with the flow. I can't help but think that this is about something bigger than the flow though... Time will tell
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Old 07-06-2010, 10:32 PM
  #292  
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Originally Posted by brakechatter
We have been through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Some say it is not over.
Seriously!? That's comparing apples to oranges. In the deepest month of this "crisis" there were over 8 million game consoles sold in the US alone. No one is waiting in line for cheese or bread like they were in the 30's! To compare them is ridiculous!

Furloughs need 18 months (or so) to be a profitable return - You need to street the pilots for 18 months to get the benefit of the furlough. I don't think honestly in this "crisis" there was a period where you couldn't find enough proof that the turn-around was going to take longer that that! The fact that they would've needed to furlough starting around the $140 bucks/barrel time and hadn't and here we are two years later hiring says they did a good job speculating that furloughs weren't a necessary evil.

But to say they didn't furlough was because of the Compass flow? I disagree. If they needed to cut the cost and it was dire, flow or not, they'll street the pilots and figure it out later! Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee.

Anyway, sorry for the tangent, getting back on the highway...
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Old 07-07-2010, 12:45 AM
  #293  
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Originally Posted by BalloonChaser
Seriously!? That's comparing apples to oranges. In the deepest month of this "crisis" there were over 8 million game consoles sold in the US alone. No one is waiting in line for cheese or bread like they were in the 30's! To compare them is ridiculous!

Furloughs need 18 months (or so) to be a profitable return - You need to street the pilots for 18 months to get the benefit of the furlough. I don't think honestly in this "crisis" there was a period where you couldn't find enough proof that the turn-around was going to take longer that that! The fact that they would've needed to furlough starting around the $140 bucks/barrel time and hadn't and here we are two years later hiring says they did a good job speculating that furloughs weren't a necessary evil.

But to say they didn't furlough was because of the Compass flow? I disagree. If they needed to cut the cost and it was dire, flow or not, they'll street the pilots and figure it out later! Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee.

Anyway, sorry for the tangent, getting back on the highway...
Agreed, in 2001 they went from hiring 100 a month to furloughing 300 in one day in November, a mere 3 months later, via force majeur. If they need or want to furlough, they will and ask questions later.....
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:48 AM
  #294  
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Originally Posted by New Hire
Essentially we have all been employees of Delta and Delta has access to more information about us than they would any new hire off the street. Now that DL is talking hiring very few people are thinking furlough if DL is able to cancel the flow we may all soon find out just how much job protection Compass did provide for mainline
Who says DAL is talking hiring less and thinking furlough? Source. Hint: BB does not count
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:51 AM
  #295  
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Originally Posted by New Hire
I think too many people think that Delta's concern is the flow up...Those of us at compass were originally hired by meeting NW's hiring minimums doing the NW interview and sim profile along with completing the NW medical. Recently our hiring practices have been changed and a consultant company has been hired to revamp the process to model DL's hiring practices. Essentially we have all been employees of Delta and Delta has access to more information about us than they would any new hire off the street. Now that DL is talking hiring very few people are thinking furlough if DL is able to cancel the flow we may all soon find out just how much job protection Compass did provide for mainline
Don't throw fear grenades because you're upset or bitter. DAL isn't anywhere close to furloughing.

Last edited by johnso29; 07-07-2010 at 05:19 AM.
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:58 AM
  #296  
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Originally Posted by BalloonChaser
Seriously!? That's comparing apples to oranges. In the deepest month of this "crisis" there were over 8 million game consoles sold in the US alone. No one is waiting in line for cheese or bread like they were in the 30's! To compare them is ridiculous!

Furloughs need 18 months (or so) to be a profitable return - You need to street the pilots for 18 months to get the benefit of the furlough. I don't think honestly in this "crisis" there was a period where you couldn't find enough proof that the turn-around was going to take longer that that! The fact that they would've needed to furlough starting around the $140 bucks/barrel time and hadn't and here we are two years later hiring says they did a good job speculating that furloughs weren't a necessary evil.

But to say they didn't furlough was because of the Compass flow? I disagree. If they needed to cut the cost and it was dire, flow or not, they'll street the pilots and figure it out later! Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee.

Anyway, sorry for the tangent, getting back on the highway...
Actually, the two are very similar. There are people waiting in line for food, and it was happening BEFORE the latest downturn. Also, in the depression of the 1930's are you going to tell me that no one had $$, and no one was spending $$? The answer is yes, they DID have $$, & the ones who did were spending it.

Plus ROI with the flow down was 22 months. It's less without the flow down, & depends on the #, but it makes a difference. Read the contract. Costs beyond the companies control cannot be fuel costs, weather. In other words, those don't count as force majuere.
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Old 07-07-2010, 07:00 AM
  #297  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Brakechatter,

I agree with what you wrote. The flow down was, and is, an important part of our job protection provisions. In fact, your quote is well worth repeating:You and I both witnessed the crime from different perspectives. You were in the barn and I was in the tree outside (with a less obstructed view). The farmer made a deal to sell the farm, but he couldn't tell the kids of his plans to squander their inheritance. He decided to tell everyone the sacred cows were stolen, then he'd claim the insurance money and retire. He opened the door and fired the shots, then fingered the straw man. When the straw man saw the sacred cows stampeding off the farm he figured the best way to save the day was to build a big fence that would protect them. To do so the straw man needed a hammer and some nails. Lumber from the open barn door was as good as any other lumber. I cautioned the straw man that there were flaws with his hammer, materials cost too much and that the farmer was a dangerous adversary. In the end, he lacked the workforce and materials to get the job done before the cows were taken by enterprising farmers from Utah and Indiana. The Straw Man settled for the ability to watch the farmhouse from a nearby hill. From this vantage point he calls the cops any time he sees a door on the barn starting to open, or close. The farmer resents the surveillance with a passion and ended up with a lot less retirement than what he had hoped his plan would produce. The kids work the farm now, making a lot less than the farmer did. The old homestead is still beautiful and green. The problem is, the farm just isn't as big as it once was and those cows that got lose are now competition for the homestead's production.

The neighboring farm to the Southwest avoided all the shenanigans and just stuck to farming. Their farm lacks all the fancy divisions and all the managers to figure it all out, but the barn is in pretty good shape. It has all of its doors and many fewer bullet holes. The just cows do what cows do ... eat grass, fart and mooooo.

Just because I understand and try to explain something does not mean I support or am trying to defend it.

As for my December 2010 forecast, I hope that I'm wrong. If the market speculation regarding our profitability is anything more than a pump and dump, I'll be eating that prediction with a smile.
Sigh. This isn't an analogy contest. I don't have the time to go tit for tat, line by line to point out that your farmer did not retire, that the holes in the SWA barn door may be fewer--but still let in insects, we have calls on the rest of our land without expiration, etc.

Suffice to say, that I think you are wasting your intelligence on unsubstantiated pessimism. We will never agree on how things went down, that we can practically reign in all of our flying, that the rjdc wasn't the single largest bunch of regional scumbags ever, and a myriad of other things.

I'm glad you made the jump, and I think that it was a good call on your part. One last point, I don't look at people below me on the list as furlough protection. The last guy deserves as much job security as the first guy.
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Old 07-07-2010, 07:09 AM
  #298  
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Originally Posted by BalloonChaser
Seriously!? That's comparing apples to oranges. In the deepest month of this "crisis" there were over 8 million game consoles sold in the US alone. No one is waiting in line for cheese or bread like they were in the 30's! To compare them is ridiculous!

Furloughs need 18 months (or so) to be a profitable return - You need to street the pilots for 18 months to get the benefit of the furlough. I don't think honestly in this "crisis" there was a period where you couldn't find enough proof that the turn-around was going to take longer that that! The fact that they would've needed to furlough starting around the $140 bucks/barrel time and hadn't and here we are two years later hiring says they did a good job speculating that furloughs weren't a necessary evil.

But to say they didn't furlough was because of the Compass flow? I disagree. If they needed to cut the cost and it was dire, flow or not, they'll street the pilots and figure it out later! Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee.

Anyway, sorry for the tangent, getting back on the highway...

You don't understand the economics well enough to be commenting. I didn't compare the Great Depression to the last 2 years. I said that the last two years was the worst economic regression SINCE the Great Depression.

There were many reasons that the company didn't furlough. I never said that the reason was the flow. There were multiple reason--the flow being one of them, and a significant one at that. The ROI on furlough is more than 18 months, and some of that is because of the flow agreement.

Speaking of the flow, this statement reflects you lack of understanding as to how the flow works:
Besides, I don't know many that would've taken anything less than a Capt. position at Compass anyway as a furloughee.
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Old 07-07-2010, 07:26 AM
  #299  
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo
Bar, you make a prediction of furloughs about every 6 months. Is there anything different about this time?
If you got back through the thread, the statement that the predictions about Compass were correct was noted. Brake then rebutted that predictions about furloughs were likely going to be incorrect. I confirmed my original furlough forecast (which from 2007 is a little out of date, but historically accurate).

It is the same forecast.

I readily admit it appears unlikely (and I hope it is). You have to remember that what we read in the news about Delta is usually our performance and trends which are extrapolated from last quarter, which means at best, that news is three to four months behind the actual market and a half year away from the data needed to make staffing prognostications. Based on what I see in the US market the reduction in government subsidies and supports, as well as flat line growth and Delta's long term trends, we are out of the woods as Delta pilots.

Brake Chatter was correct that I made that forecast and I'm just being honest and conceding he is correct.
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Old 07-07-2010, 07:29 AM
  #300  
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Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Brakechatter,

I agree with what you wrote. The flow down was, and is, an important part of our job protection provisions. In fact, your quote is well worth repeating:You and I both witnessed the crime from different perspectives. You were in the barn and I was in the tree outside (with a less obstructed view). The farmer made a deal to sell the farm, but he couldn't tell the kids of his plans to squander their inheritance. He decided to tell everyone the sacred cows were stolen, then he'd claim the insurance money and retire. He opened the door and fired the shots, then fingered the straw man. When the straw man saw the sacred cows stampeding off the farm he figured the best way to save the day was to build a big fence that would protect them. To do so the straw man needed a hammer and some nails. Lumber from the open barn door was as good as any other lumber. I cautioned the straw man that there were flaws with his hammer, materials cost too much and that the farmer was a dangerous adversary. In the end, he lacked the workforce and materials to get the job done before the cows were taken by enterprising farmers from Utah and Indiana. The Straw Man settled for the ability to watch the farmhouse from a nearby hill. From this vantage point he calls the cops any time he sees a door on the barn starting to open, or close. The farmer resents the surveillance with a passion and ended up with a lot less retirement than what he had hoped his plan would produce. The kids work the farm now, making a lot less than the farmer did. The old homestead is still beautiful and green. The problem is, the farm just isn't as big as it once was and those cows that got lose are now competition for the homestead's production.

The neighboring farm to the Southwest avoided all the shenanigans and just stuck to farming. Their farm lacks all the fancy divisions and all the managers to figure it all out, but the barn is in pretty good shape. It has all of its doors and many fewer bullet holes. The just cows do what cows do ... eat grass, fart and mooooo.

Just because I understand and try to explain something does not mean I support or am trying to defend it.

As for my December 2010 forecast, I hope that I'm wrong. If the market speculation regarding our profitability is anything more than a pump and dump, I'll be eating that prediction with a smile.
This is a very accurate post, scope, regional airline sales, and IPO's were used to fund the ailing pilot pension funds among other things. This plan eventually was a massive failure on everyone's part when the economy collapsed. Once the pension fund obligations go away, the regionals will go away, and the profession can begin to be restored.
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