Waves

Keep in mind that any numbers given are purely based on your seniority number. My numbers don't look anything at all like those numbers. Of course in 2037, I'll probably be in a rest home.

hockeypilot44

A 2008 hire at NWA is looking at another 2-3 years on top of the 2 1/2 we already sat. It can easily top 5 1/2 years for some of us.

Justdoinmyjob

I was hired in 2001 and am still sitting reserve. However, If I wanted to bid down to the 88 or -9 or commute to JFK, I could hold a line. I seriously doubt that with the planned expansion, anyone with 5 1/2 years would be on reserve unless they chose to. Arguments about not commuting and QOL don't hunt!

MoonShot

The #'s posted earlier are a just a bit off (not much though). Here is the whole list as of the May 2010 Projected Retirements list for age 65 from the company website.

2010 - 3
2011 - 8
2012 - 19
2013 - 102
2014 - 162
2015 - 224
2016 - 301
2017 - 360
2018 - 456
2019 - 538
2020 - 624
2021 - 807
2022 - 860
2023 - 812
2024 - 810
2025 - 714
2026 - 618
2027 - 514
2028 - 499
2029 - 489
2030 - 524
2031 - 460
2032 - 372
2033 - 307
2034 - 223
2035 - 165
2036 - 160
2037 - 124
2038 - 103
2039 - 86
2040 - 85
2041 - 71
2042 - 66
2043 - 48
2044 - 31
2045 - 27
2046 - 10
2047 - 4
2048 - 1

Superpilot92

Just a reminder, That is based on worst case scenario of EVERY pilot going to 65, Highly unlikely. The average will likely be around 62 so that pushes all those numbers up closer. Take year 2010 for example, it lists "3" retirements, we've had a few hundred retire this year already and we're only halfway through the year. Keep in mind that we're 2 1/2 years into the age 65 rule change so if the age 62 avg holds up then we should keep seeing a constant stream of retirements.

To add to my other comments above - A new pilot today should see top 50% before that point and here's my reasoning.

The numbers assume -0- growth, no early retirements, and no work rule changes. SO we know the company has plans of growing now since they've cut so much capacity out of the system in the past few years we've got a lot of room to grow. Early retirements will continue and we'll see increases in our contracts as far as work rules go thus increasing the need for positions. Combine that with the eventual government changes in duty limits we're going to see an increased need in required staffing.

All of these factors are the variables that will push a new pilot up in relative seniority sooner than if you just consider age 65 retirements.

Denny Crane

Super,

I think the 2010 numbers are a little skewed because of the PIRP program. I think around a 100 of those retirements took effect in the last couple of months.

Denny

Superpilot92

yes some of the retirements were PIRPS but not all of them. My point is that if you look at the retirement numbers on this thread it showed 3 total retirements this year which just goes to show that the projected retirement list numbers will happen sooner than the assumed worst case scenario of everyone going to 65.

Denny Crane

Oh, I agree that the numbers each year will be greater than those shown for exactly the reasons you listed. My point was that the current 2010 retirements are a little skewed because of the PIRP.

Denny

Superpilot92

Go to ezopenboard and look at the retirments month by month, you'll notice that the majority of retirments are 62 or less (and a large chunk are less than 60)

Retirements over the last year per month

2009
July-55
Aug-8
Sep-72
Oct-17
Nov-9
Dec-8

back half of the 2009 there were a total of 169

2010
Jan - 44
Feb - 13
Mar - 11
Apr - 21
May - 40
June -16

So far we've had 145 retirements in the first 6 months of 2010 which is much more than the total of projected age 65 retirements. Some were PIRPs this year but even outside and after the PIRP program the retirements continue.

TOTAL RETIREMENTS IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS 314 (again, some were PIRPS but the retirements should stay pretty constant from this point going forward IMHO) We'll see

johnso29

That depends on your category. Right now I hold a line on DTW DC9, NYC M88, & will most likely hold a line on DTW 320 by years end.

Plus, I'm jr to you.