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Old 02-01-2010, 07:31 AM
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Default DAL/NWA 1: Impact of Potential JAL Deal

I'm starting this thread to spin out the JAL portion of the discussion from the "Latest and Greatest" thread, where it is one of several topics competing for attention.

1) What do we know about the status of JAL discussions?
2) What would a deal mean for Delta pilots?
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Old 02-01-2010, 07:37 AM
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Decision Pending:
WSJ (3 hours ago) TOKYO—Japan Airlines Corp.'s newly appointed chairman, Kazuo Inamori, said Monday the carrier aims to finalize its choice of a business partner as soon as possible, as it seeks to get back on its feet under court-led restructuring.

"We are concentrating our discussions ... and want to conclude as early as possible," Mr. Inamori said at his first news conference since becoming chairman of the struggling carrier as part of its state-supported revamp plan.

JAL to Decide on Partner Soon - WSJ.com

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JAL Route Map:
http://jal.innosked.com/(S(1bqb3355i...egion_id=JAPAN

Its interactive but it shows you where they fly now.
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Cuts
We know that JAL plans to cut 31 routes (14 international and 17 domestic), 53 planes and 1/3 of its work force. They hope to make a profit by the year ending March 2012.

The 53 planes are 37 747-400s and 16 MD-90s.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p....3JhbUqw&pos=7
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JAL fleet:
738- 13 ordering 14 more
744 - 28
744D - 8
762 - 3
763 - 19
7ER - 23
772 - 16
772ER - 10
773 - 6
773ER - 14 ordering 5
787 - ordering 35
MD81 - 9
MD90 - 16

Cargo
744BCF - 4 (BCF = Boeing Converted Freighter from passenger)
744F - 2
B763ERF - 3
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JAL Cargo Operation for Sale
Monday, 01 February 2010
The stalled talks for the merger of the air cargo operations of Japan Airlines and Nippon Yusen may be permanently derailed.

The two companies earlier had agreed to combine their air cargo businesses by April 2010, with JAL spinning off its cargo operations and Nippon Yusen absorbing them.

Ownership of the new entity would have been around 50:50/60:40 for the two companies.

However, after JAL filed for bankruptcy protection, the country's state-backed Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp (ETIC) of Japan said it wanted either to sell off JAL's cargo business or keep JAL's stake in the merged JAL-Nippon Yusen company to a minimum.

However, Nippon Yusen reportedly is unwilling to take on the additional 'thousands' of personnel needed to take total control of JAL's cargo business.

Last edited by forgot to bid; 02-01-2010 at 07:55 AM.
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Old 02-01-2010, 07:42 AM
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I agree there is conflicting info. We want to reevaluate all of it, and we want to make a decision soon.....Which is it.

I bet it is; We want to see who blinks and throws an asinine offer on table because we are smart smart business men.
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:19 AM
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On Monday February 1, 2010, 7:07 am EST
By Nobuhiro Kubo
TOKYO (Reuters) - Bankrupt Japan Airlines's (Tokyo:9205.T - News) new president said he would start from scratch in choosing an overseas partner, as American Airlines tries to fend off strong rival suitor Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL - News)
The two U.S. carriers have been courting Japan Airlines with offers of financial aid and close cooperation on international routes, keen to gain access to its vast network in Asia and benefit from the expansion at Tokyo's Haneda airport.
American is currently partners with JAL in the Oneworld alliance. Delta wants it to defect to its rival SkyTeam group.
Some Japanese media have already declared Delta the winner, saying JAL will chose it because the airline has a much larger network than American, which would allow JAL more room to cut costs and would give it a bigger sales boost.
However, JAL's new president and chief operating officer, Masaru Onishi, said on Monday he would start with a blank slate in evaluating the offers from Delta and American.
"We are still neutral," Onishi told a news conference held to introduce the carrier's new management team. "We will consider from scratch under new management without being affected by the past discussions."
JAL filed for bankruptcy protection two weeks ago with about $25 billion in debts and will now embark on a sweeping restructuring with the help of the state-backed fund Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp of Japan (ETIC).
The ETIC has estimated that an alliance with Delta could boost JAL's earnings by as much as 17.2 billion yen ($190 million) a year, triple the expected benefit of ties with American, according to a document obtained by Reuters.
That assumes both carriers could attain so-called anti-trust immunity for closer cooperation on scheduling, pricing and marketing under an "open skies" treaty between the United States and Japan.
American and its Oneworld partners have offered $1.4 billion in capital and Delta has offered about $1 billion in financial aid. However, the ETIC, is not expected to invite either carrier to invest.
"There are both good points and bad points (in the proposals from American and Delta). We will make a decision as soon as possible," said Onishi, the former head of a commuter airline unit of JAL.
Onishi, 54, started his career in JAL in 1978 doing plane maintenance and was part of the response team that consoled families following a 1985 crash that is still the world's biggest single aircraft disaster, claiming 520 lives.
Onishi will work to rebuild the former national flag carrier along with new chief executive officer Kazuo Inamori, the 77-year-old founder of electronics maker Kyocera Corp (Tokyo:6971.T - News) and an ordained Buddhist priest.
"From ancient times, the rise and fall of companies has depended on the nature of its leaders," Inamori said at the news conference. "I know I have a heavy responsibility and I want to convey what I have learned as a leader to each employee."
($1=90.40 Yen)
(Reporting by Nobuhiro Kubo; editing by Michael Watson and Karen Foster)
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:26 AM
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Me thinks it is a move to see if AMR flinches and dumps a pile o cash on the table. They may have woken up with DAL in the bed and not been thrilled at what they agreed to.

Time will tell.

If I was DAL I would be in talks with ANA too.....
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
If I was DAL I would be in talks with ANA too.....
To me, that would signal desperation of the worse kind. And I don't see how it could be effective. ANA is in a very strong position within STAR. They probably will get to grow as a result of JAL's woes, and they have excellent clout when they negotiate with UAL, because they have HND slots.
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:32 AM
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I did not say serious talks. I also disagree. JAL thinks they hold all of the cards. They seem to thing they hold the high position. Sometimes the perspective needs to change.

They know what they are going to do. They just want a little more out of the deal. (Or so the press would state) I am guessing that these new reports are controlled leaks to see what some of the players do. Sometime being to greedy bites ya in the rump.
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by acl65pilot
I did not say serious talks. I also disagree. JAL thinks they hold all of the cards. They seem to thing they hold the high position. Sometimes the perspective needs to change.

They know what they are going to do. They just want a little more out of the deal. (Or so the press would state) I am guessing that these new reports are controlled leaks to see what some of the players do. Sometime being to greedy bites ya in the rump.
Well, serious or not, the key is self-respect, and not folding. Not having additional talks with someone else. That would be a public black-eye for JAL that could push them back to their current partner.

I agree with you: JAL needs us, but we need them too. This is about pricing how much we need them. The reality is that we have to be able to say "no". The company, AND us. Some deals are not acceptable.

I definitely don't think we're getting anything on the cheap, but Delta shouldn't pay more than a fair price. And DALPA better not be willing to make up the difference. If Delta wants a JV, and our contract stands in the way, they need to deploy some of that billion, and make additional concessions. To us. Concessions that yield new Delta pilot jobs. It's really our money, anyway.
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:49 AM
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Seems like we are the stick JAL is using to hit AMR on the head for more money, just my two yen.
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Old 02-01-2010, 08:58 AM
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That is kind of the way I see it.

Sink, I understand the self respect issue. My wife works for a Japanese firm with its headquarters in the heart of Tokyo. Point is that they use their "cultural expectations" against us. They know it and we better too.

I beleive they want to keep us, but want to see if Arpy and AMR are willing to give them the farm to save face. It may be the only way they would stay. The last offer from AMR was about that. They stated they would not compete with them on any route. Not sure how much more you can get out of them. If they do not want money, I would hate to see what they are asking them for.

As for the talks with ANA. I take it from a different perspective. Our head guys get the discretion deal very well. That is a crowd pleaser for the Japanese. That does not mean we are dumb. That does not mean that we sit there and allow ourselves' to get played. That is bad business I do not care what country you are from.

I would make sure my flank is covered on this one. We are dealing with some of the smarted businessmen and women in the world. Never discredit that.

In the response to money. I agree. Some deals are not worth doing when certain things change. All including DALPA must know when it is time to walk away.
We do have protections in our PWA. I like the AF language. The baseline would protect us well here. Agreed, it is a different animal, but we do have precedence in the PWA. Actually we have the JV language for AF, and the slot utilization for NRT. That is a lot of meat.
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