firstmob

What will happen now with JAL's MD-90's or even their B747-400's?

acl65pilot

Sink;
All I will say is maybe. I still think that even with the press reports today we still have better odds than AMR does. If JAL wants to stay with AMR that is great. Open Skies which stinks will be doomed unless our little military base is more important than anything else, and the US government will willingly throw the US airline industry under the bus. Us removing our complain what contingent on the JAL deal, so what happens to the O.S. is up in the air after a loss of that.

If the end result is no change in alliances, DAL and Skyteam will put the pressure on JAL like they have never felt. It will cause undue financial pressure for the airline. It is my opinion that DAL will make then rue the decision. We have other plan in place.

acl65pilot

It is unclear but it is my understanding that us buying their 90's and leasing them back was a deal that was already done. Now that they are rejecting those leases, I would expect them to come to mainline.

As with their 744's depends on how they are rejected. Are they the owned ones or leased? Who are they leasing them from? Lots to play out.

I got the popcorn and a coke. Just going to watch the events unfold.

Sink r8

Thanks for the reply.

I don't know if us having or removing a complaint will make or break an "Open" (as if) Skies deal. And I don't know that we can be too confident about beating JAL, considering the element of national pride. With that said...

1) What's the next airline to have slots at HND after JAL and ANA? I wouldn't be too surprised if we agreed to some arrangement with them.
2) I like the idea of competing. Arpey pretty much promised JAL they could do whatever they want, if they stay, and that he will do nothing to compete.
3) I think the future is in Asian airlines going from small and large-sized cities in Asia, to bigger cities in the US, and for US airlines to connect small and large places in the US to bigger cities in Asia. Any large network that can offer a good number of direct/one stops wins. I've never completely understood how our NRT operation wins over the long-term. This isn't some sort of dig on the NW guys: I could see the great value back when people didn't have competitive alternative to three-leg trips, but I wasn't sure how we would transition.

And for trips between small Asian cities, and small US cities, those that require two connections, let's not forget Skyteam still has KAL. We can compete with oneworld both through Japan, and without Japan.

acl65pilot

Lets put it this was. Japan is important but China is the gem you need to go after.

If I was JAL I would not care how good the deal was if the name TPG was anywhere near it. If AMR got them off of the deal then they will probably get it.

Our backups will be good to, just not as clean of a line.

forgot to bid

So lets talk about China Southern and Vietnam Airlines...

acl65pilot

Smart boy.

TANSTAAFL

Might not an independent DAL/Skyteam competing against JAL be equally good for DAL, and likely better for the DAL pilots? GUM becomes more of a probability, and we will, if our ex-NWA execs are true to form, try to crush AMR/JAL under the weight of increased competition. AMR and JAL are both in precarious shape, and the phrase "be careful what you wish for" may become prophetic.

acl65pilot

I agree, that it may be good for us. In fact I have stated that there may be more jobs created without JAL, but I question how sustainable those jobs will be. Haneda has been key with the Japanese government's unwillingness to open Haneda up to all airlines and as many slots as they want. They are protecting their two hometown airlines, and the US government has their feet over the fire with the Okinawa Marine base. That all adds up to the US government agreeing to a less than equal Open-Skies.

I am sure as the day is long that if JAL does not switch to Skyteam that we will see a GUM base in about a year. I also see us putting the screws to them very quickly. In effect regretting the decision. We will create a hub with both NRT and GUM that will for all intense and purposes minimize the effect of being shut out of Haneda will have.

As for my comment of sustainability. Well the consumers will decide where to go and who to fly. Price and convenience are king. If we can create a network without Haneda access that the consumer can deal with, then the jobs will stick. If not, they many not be long term jobs.

JAL is the best way to go as it offers a totally different perspective to our network, and in my opinion on that we can sustain and grow. As Slow has stated, the other options have more risk. They could be just as successful, but the risk is greater.

As I have stated I foresee an announcement in the next few weeks. The papers are already backtracking again. One way or another it appears the flight is on with AMR.

slowplay

Last time I checked the company that you work for was still losing money. Lots of it. JAL (and arguably AMR) is in worse financial shape than DAL by many measures, but one of the "weight" problems we have as we throw our weight around is debt.

Competition costs money. Competition against a government subsidized entity is a losing proposition. I have no doubt that Delta will compete and compete well, with or without a JAL deal. NRT is only one component of Delta's Pacific strategy (about 35%). NRT was losing money before this deal. Increased competition isn't going to help that in the near term.

The biggest beneficiaries of a JAL/AMR tie-up will be Star. They'll have all the pieces in place (Haneda, Open Skies, and NRT hub) against two weaker alliance structures.