johnso29

BINGO!! This industry is dumb luck.

Pineapple Guy

We could change that, but no one seems willing to try...

johnso29

I know!

acl65pilot

I cannot resist, how do you see fixing this? What is your solution?
Really, I want to know.

Pineapple Guy

We need to find a system, any system, in which your seniority is portable. NO, I'm not talking about an NSL. Under one system I envision, you would accrue "points" based on your current position. Those points would be kept in a national database, and should you wish to transfer or if your company liquidates, you could use those points to determine your position on the list at a subsequent carrier.

You would still have to interview and be offered a job. You would still be on first year pay and have first year benefits (vacation, sick leave, pass privileges etc.). But for bidding purposes, your seniority would be whatever your points balance at the time of your transfer permits.

The net effect is pilots would not be the ONLY group with EVERYTHING to lose when the company gets in deep financial trouble. Because of that, management always takes advantage of us, and the senior half is more than willing to take a 32.5% paycut (just to pull a number out of the air - ) rather than risk shutting the place down. The junior half is ALWAYS more willing to strike, because they've got less to lose.

Find a way to provide a safety net for all, and the whipsawing among pilot groups will reduce as well as the sledge hammer management has at contract time.

More details via PM if you want them.

AAflyer

American Airlines

1/13/2010 - 12/31/2010 0
01/01/2011 - 12/31/2011 0
01/01/2012 - 12/31/2012 5
01/01/2013 - 12/31/2013 137
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 205
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 266
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 251
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 284
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 358
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 456
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 546
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 607
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 659
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 708
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 722
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 736
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 707
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 587
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 496
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 474
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 410


Hired in my mid 20s, now in my later 30s.. Yes timing and LUCK have a lot to do with where we sit.

Cheers,

AAflyer

P.S.Like another poster said, these numbers are just numbers. We currently 300 pilots over 60. We could easily see 500-1000 guys bail if the market picked up and then started to decline. Potential BK would see even more guys bail (not saying we are there), guys retiring at 62-63, a messy merger.. Many things leave these numbers hard to commit to.

cal73

Hired at CAL when I was 30.

My dad was 30 when he got on at Hughes Air West in 1978. AMR, Braniff and Delta Turned him down. Never even considered flying at NW Orient. Never even applied...Retired Sep 07 from NWA and quite happy.

Words of wisdom to spread is that the folks from TN had a good thing going....Jack Daniels is the worlds finest whiskey. Enjoy in large amounts.

Good luck to all in the crap shoot. For those that have bad luck...the jack is on me.

Superpilot92

Hired at NWA in 2008 at 27, alot of luck, timing and sacrifice

all of those DAL numbers assume age 65, fact is the majority of the near term retirements are from the NWA side. A lot of those guys still have a pension left along with military retirements. The majority wont stay much past 62 if they continue past 60 at all. The movement is coming and it will be alot sooner than most think. Also a bunch of our early out guys havent even been allowed to leave yet so those numbers dont account for that either.

The more the merrier!!

jsled

The below figures are based on age 60. Just add 5 years to each year. BTW, was hired at 28 after 4 years in the regionals and 2 years as a freight dog. 100% networking.

2008 - 235
2009 - 231
2010 - 201
2011 - 167
2012 - 228
2013 - 246
2014 - 239
2015 - 271
2016 - 330
2017 - 305
2018 - 383
2019 - 356
2020 - 461
2021 - 508
2022 - 503
2023 - 574
2025 - 539
2026 - 561
2027 - 407

QCappy

Currently 50 guys over age 60.

2012 1
2013 18
2014 31
2015 36
2016 48
2017 46
2018 43
2019 49
2020 55
2021 57
2022 57
2023 50
2024 60
2025 57
2026 52
2027 77
2028 55
2029 76
2030 51
2031 58
2032 70
2033 56
2034 67
2035 63
2036 54
2037 39
2038 22
2039 26
2040 18
2041 26
2042 14
2043 10
2044 6
2045 4
2046 2
2047 1