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Ummmm, what happened "OIL EXPERTS????"

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Old 12-18-2008, 06:19 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by EmbraerFlyer
Why are the airlines charging for bags still. As a paying passenger i would be very upset because it all came to life via fuel surcharge. Now fuel is down to $36 per barrel. Why are the passengers still paying? If they don't complain it will become the norm, just like no more snacks and as far as paying for a soda and water!
The airlines have to recover some of the BILLIONS in losses we've incurred over the past year or so. If we start giving away our product again, then you'll have even fewer choices when you fly. The airlines haven't been mismanaged per se like the automotive industry, but instead were a victim of high oil prices that were almost impossible to keep up with. We are still paying a massive premium for jet fuel oil (50% today) so $36 per barrel on the open market is $54 for the airlines. But, in order to make up for some of the losses, they've cut routes, cut flight schedules, reduced capacity etc. Until our cash reserves are brought back up to speed, I don't think you'll see much in the way of cheap tickets again for a while.
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Old 12-18-2008, 06:21 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by KC10 FATboy
QCappy, don't bother arguing with that guy. You are in a battle of wits and he is completely disarmed.

-Fatty
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Old 12-18-2008, 06:28 PM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by ewrbasedpilot
So you're saying their has been a 75% drop in demand? I don't hardly think so. It now appears we have quite a bit of "excess" refining capacity again. Funny how that happens, isn't it?
This statement demonstrates a serious fundamental lack of economic understanding that can't be cured here, and where are the experts? The same place they have always been, sometimes right and sometimes wrong.
They only have to be right a little more than half the time to make money. The markets are going to move and we can't stop them with insults or flailing out with half baked theory.

Originally Posted by The Duke
I not an "oil expert" by any stretch of the imagination, however, many of my posts here have been centered around the concept of peak oil and that we've reached peak production. I also mentioned in several of my posts that the only way oil prices would come down would be due to an economic recession/depression. That's exactly what we're seeing right now. Also, the last 6 recessions all started out w/ a sharp rise in oil prices. Significant amounts of oil are needed for production of goods, but quite a bit is also used for transportation of goods as well. The recession has stifled demand, we no longer need to use as much oil to produce and transport goods, hence the falling price of oil. This might be an over-simplification of the situation, but it's how I see it. As the recession gives way to better times, production and demand will rise, causing oil prices to begin their up-hill march. Remember, from what we've all seen, the price can go up real quickly, but it can also fall precipitously. Oil prices will once again go up, how much is anyone's guess, but they'll be back sooner rather than later. The only thing that would hold off prices from rising much would be a severe economic recession (which we might already be in) or an economic depression.
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Old 12-18-2008, 06:51 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by jungle
This statement demonstrates a serious fundamental lack of economic understanding that can't be cured here, and where are the experts? The same place they have always been, sometimes right and sometimes wrong.
They only have to be right a little more than half the time to make money. The markets are going to move and we can't stop them with insults or flailing out with half baked theory.



The voice of reason.
Interesting comments. Common sense is considered "lack of economic understanding?" Amazing how many BRILLIANT people were totally hosed over by Madoff too, isn't it. I guess all those millionaires demonstrated a serious lack of fundamental investing too? Sorry, but I don't think so. Some (such as yourself) seem to always have a "theory", and if we don't agree with it, then we're uneducated. My Masters in business (3.6 GPA), says I'm not as stupid about business and economics as you might think I am..................
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Old 12-18-2008, 06:57 PM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by ewrbasedpilot
Interesting comments. Common sense is considered "lack of economic understanding?" Amazing how many BRILLIANT people were totally hosed over by Madoff too, isn't it. I guess all those millionaires demonstrated a serious lack of fundamental investing too? Sorry, but I don't think so. Some (such as yourself) seem to always have a "theory", and if we don't agree with it, then we're uneducated. My Masters in business (3.6 GPA), says I'm not as stupid about business and economics as you might think I am..................
I was going to dredge up a few of your statements from earlier threads to demonstrate my point, but it isn't worth my time. Believe whatever you like, and have a good day.
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Old 12-18-2008, 09:23 PM
  #26  
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I always said it would go back to $70-80...I didn't think it would head for $25.
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Old 12-19-2008, 01:06 AM
  #27  
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I sure miss the wisdom of aerospacepilot.
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Old 12-19-2008, 03:30 AM
  #28  
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11:30 UTC 19 Dec., --- $36.22.

Ooops... 11:32 UTC --- $35.83.

No wait!!! $35.62... and it only 11:36 UTC

Last edited by captjns; 12-19-2008 at 03:36 AM.
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Old 12-19-2008, 08:32 AM
  #29  
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All of us old timers should know that everything ALWAYS reverts back to its 'mean'.

Every time there is a 'bubble', it always bursts and goes back to its 'mean'.
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Old 12-19-2008, 08:54 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by QCappy
However, demand has been falling faster than the supply cuts. So....I guess it does have to do with supply and demand.

Nope, supply and demand mean nothing when you are dealing with a cartel and they are known as OPEC. OPEC tries to set price and NOT the free market. Oil prices rose steeply and all the "experts" claimed it was the rapid demand in China and India. Got news for ya, that "demand" did not really happen as they claimed. Yes, there was incresed demand but nowhere near what the "experts" would have you believe. OPEC decided they needed more money for their product so they simply ratcheted up the price over the past 3 yrs. OPEC became too greedy as they thought prices could go even higher. We saw the same thing happen in the 70s.
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