Andy

I got over the United deathwatch threads long ago. I've seen far too many of them to bother me anymore. I just want to make sure that we're speaking factually correct numbers.
I let your $8M/day loss number slide, as I have no idea what the daily loss at United is currently running. I suspect that you don't either, but are making an educated guess. However, you're making that number appear as if it's $8M/day in cash. A portion of the quarterly/daily loss is composed of depreciating assets. Depreciating assets aren't a hit to the bottom line.
Also, there was another fare hike initiated yesterday by United (they've initiated most of the fare hikes lately) and matched by both American and Delta. With AMR and DAL matching, it's got a very good chance of sticking. http://cbs11tv.com/local/airfares.in....2.731606.html
All of the fare hikes will help, but will also result in decreased passenger traffic. AMR made a good decision by reducing capacity. United previously announced the same. All airlines (with the exception of Southwest) are losing money in the current environment. Likely on just about every single flight. The only way to reduce the bleeding is to trim the flight schedule. Hopefully United will do it in a prudent manner, such as dumping all of the PHX-LAX RJs and upguaging with less frequency (that's one route; there are plenty of others that could be upguaged with less frequency). I think that the airlines who upguage with less frequency will end up being in the best shape when we emerge from the current downturn.

It's going to be bloody; I expect to see as many carriers file chap 11 as did post-911. How many go ch 7 is the unknown. I suspect more than a couple will be out of business. We're also likely to see more pilots on furlough than any previous peak. Scary times for all; this isn't limited to United.

Jack Bauer

There will be a big difference this time when airlines go into BK than right after 911. As many analysts have said, most of the fat has been trimmed and there isnt a whole lot of other directions to go this time. Lenders are also very aware of this and will be less likely to throw any money at an airlines if the outcome will inevitably be the same.....cant sustain the operation on losses. Oil keeps pounding airlines at the gas pump.

I would say the only real savior besides fair/fee hikes (which I dont think will be enough) is code share partners with a vested interest. United better hope Lufthansa is willing to cough up some cash and Delta better hope AF/KLM throws some money their way. Its about outlasting the other guys this time. This time carriers will be allowed to die.

FliFast

Triple "P" (hope that's ok ?!?)

One of the nails in the coffins of TWA and Pan Am was the sale of their London-Heathrow routes to American and United respectively. This is more my point when referring to the crown jewels of United. United can generate cash through fire sales of routes and assets. Unfortunately, at TWA, our uncle, Carl Icahn did this quite masterfully. i.e Heathrow routes & Philly/Baltimore-Gatwick etc. etc.

"Happiness is Positive Cash flow" Carl Icahn circa 1988.

PicklePausePull

I'm not sure selling the most profitable routes, as I think you are inferring, would be smart at all. The task seems to be for UAL (and other legacies) to reduce unprofitable routes in the domestic markets to free up cash to invest in profitable markets; or to seek mergers or codes shares with those who can feed cash into the system. I personally think UAL's biggest problem is their incompetent management who hate their own pilots, and have been rewarded for taking a once thriving airline and putting it into Chp. 11 twice.

fireman0174

I certainly won't disagree with you regarding their incompetent management, but UAL has only been in chapter 11 once. As of today,anyway.

sailingfun

Of today's major airlines only USAIR and CAL have been in Chapter 11 twice. United has only been once.

WhizWheel

While supply and demand are one facet of why oil prices are so high you are extremely naive to think the weak dollar and speculation are negligible. In fact it is very much the reason why. If you continue to base your ideas on what you hear on tv from the folks who know nothing about the markets, you'll continue to believe whats not going on. First thing those that make money in the markets do in the morning is put on CNBC and turn the volume down. Best thing for them to do would be to display the streaming ticker with a blank screen as a background.

PicklePausePull

My mistake. I should have said once in BK Chp. 11, and once reorganized at the pilots' expense via the ESOP.

texaspilot76

Here is the latest speculation about the possible merger with United and Airways.

The word is that United is in a serious hole and may be in BK by summer. It is believed that Doug Parker of Airways is sitting back waiting for United to go into BK so he can aquire them dirt cheap. He would get more airplanes, routes, etc., all at liquidation prices. At that point, it would be a buyout, not a merger, so he would retain his super cheap labor costs he has at Airways currently. As far as jobs, it looks like it would be good for Airways, and a disaster for the United folks.

Oldfreightdawg

Very plausible. Parker will lose a lot of control in BK court. USAir will have to come up with a lot of $$$, although he will have leverage with the banks because none of them want anymore bad loans on the books. If the creditors feel it's more valuable to break apart and liquidate, Parker will run into a bidding war over the more valuable assets. It might not be as cheap as it sounds.