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Old 05-23-2008, 11:01 AM
  #21  
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The government has a lot more than airlines to worry about. The entire transportation infrastructure in the US is in danger of collapsing. If a carrier like UAL or any other major goes under, it will get a lot of lip service, but I don't really think the government can do much. Looks like OPEC is gonna finish the job that Bin Laden started.
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Old 05-23-2008, 11:06 AM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Oldiebutgoody
The government has a lot more than airlines to worry about. The entire transportation infrastructure in the US is in danger of collapsing. If a carrier like UAL or any other major goes under, it will get a lot of lip service, but I don't really think the government can do much. Looks like OPEC is gonna finish the job that Bin Laden started.
Maybe I can sue OPEC for selling us oil in the first place. I'm sure I could find an attorney that would run with that.
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Old 05-23-2008, 11:07 AM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by Oldiebutgoody
The government has a lot more than airlines to worry about. The entire transportation infrastructure in the US is in danger of collapsing. If a carrier like UAL or any other major goes under, it will get a lot of lip service, but I don't really think the government can do much. Looks like OPEC is gonna finish the job that Bin Laden started.
That's not too far from the truth my friend. It's unfortunate, but the Bin Laden's of the world don't need large armys to bring down other nations anymore.
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Old 05-23-2008, 11:17 AM
  #24  
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The pin head in DC did not help matters by going into Iraq. Not that you can put a price on human life, but how much money has been spent with no end or return on cost in sight? We got bigger problems than airlines tanking, and it ain't gonna get any better any time soon. Since the Carter administration, never has any group of worthless politicians been so disconnected from reality. Well at least Dick "Gunner" Chaney and is friends, George and who? are making a bundle from the oil situation ala Haliburton. Lets all learn to tap dance.

Last edited by captjns; 05-23-2008 at 12:20 PM.
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Old 05-23-2008, 11:59 AM
  #25  
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No argument here.
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Old 05-23-2008, 12:07 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by iahflyr
  • They have (IMHO) the best route structure in the entire airline industry.
  • They have some of highest yield hubs in the industry (IAD, ORD, SFO, LAX, DEN)
  • They have the most of the most profitable Asia flying.
  • They have the most profitable frequent flyer program. This is very important. Banks profit 1 billion dollars a year from this frequent flyer program, and you can bet they are willing to pump tons of money into UAL to make sure they stay alive. We saw this after 9/11. If anything, UAL can spin this off for a huge amount of money (I think they were talking 12-14 billion dollars by selling their frequent flyer program). Of course even after this sale, they would need to stay in business to keep the frequent flyer program valuable.
  • They have 3 billion dollars in cash, and do own approximately 100 of their aircraft (assets).
  • Would the US government let United go out of business. I doubt it. 60,000 jobs. The nations 2nd largest airline. Probably will not happen.
  • They have one of the newest fleets of the legacies (I think they are 2nd behind CAL, with a new fleet comes lower maintenance costs and lower fuel burn).
  • No new aircraft on order. People rag on UAL all the time for this, but I think this is a smart move. UAL is the biggest supporter of industry mergers. Tilton has said no aircraft orders until they find a merger partner. That is a very smart move (rather than merging, and between the two merging airlines having A350's, 787's, A380's, and 737NG's on order). Wait until they merge, then I think you will see lots of orders from United.
I am not a UAL guy, nor do I really have anything vested in their success, but they sure seem to not get any credit on these forums. I would say that they are probably the most underrated airline and amongst the most likely to be successful in the future airline. They have been poorly run, but all the benefits I listed above are keeping them alive. Let them merge (CAL, US Air, someone else) and I think you will see a successful United in the future.
$3B is not a lot of cash in this environment. I'd guess their number before filing Ch. 11 or having a fire sale is in the $1-1.5B range. I agree that on the surface their assets are impressive, but I have to agree with the quote below. Their management is awful. Here's to hoping their employees either weather the ride or land on their feet after a break up.

Originally Posted by Spaceman Spliff
All this going for it (most from good decisions made a generation or two ago) and their current management has still run it into the ground.
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Old 05-23-2008, 12:11 PM
  #27  
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I'd really love to see what all these "speculators" on Wall Street tell their loved ones when they go home at night after they've run oil up a few more dollars,screwed a few million more people in the USA, and helped the oil companies and OPEC some MORE. Personally I hope all the jerks end up homeless and in a sewer. They must be real proud of themselves.
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Old 05-23-2008, 12:27 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by XHooker
$3B is not a lot of cash in this environment. I'd guess their number before filing Ch. 11 or having a fire sale is in the $1-1.5B range...
The last bankruptcy UAL performed showed 2 Billion cash on hand at filing. As of the Q1 '08 earnings report, they showed 2.4 billion unrestricted cash, with .4 billion restricted, for 2.8 billion total.

I think a Chapt 11 filing is imminent, probably shortly after the next earnings report in July.
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Old 05-23-2008, 01:03 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by captjns
The pin head in DC did not help matters by going into Iraq. Not that you can put a price on human life, but how much money has been spent with no end or return on cost in sight? We got bigger problems than airlines tanking, and it ain't gonna get any better any time soon. Since the Carter administration, never has any group of worthless politicians been so disconnected from reality. Well at least Dick "Gunner" Chaney and is friends, George and who? are making a bundle from the oil situation ala Haliburton. Lets all learn to tap dance.

You said it, oil rises and the pin head finances his war!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 05-23-2008, 01:13 PM
  #30  
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[quote=JetPiedmont;389374]The last bankruptcy UAL performed showed 2 Billion cash on hand at filing. As of the Q1 '08 earnings report, they showed 2.4 billion unrestricted cash, with .4 billion restricted, for 2.8 billion total.

This was with fuel prices being about 1/3 of what they are now...I'm sure the cash on hand required would be greater now...
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