SabreDriver

I guess that just proves that Kevin Crissey's last forecast really wasn't very good to start with, wonder what makes this one any better?

So sad to see a former giant cowering, a mere shadow of it's former self.

DAL4EVER

No one. According to ALPA's EF&A department, SWA can be profitable to $150/barrel. All U.S. carriers lose above $120. DAL was able to maintain profitability to $120/barrel. The same report had AA losing money at $90-95 and UAL was lower than that I believe.

The only hope anyone has is that your airline has enough cash on hand to be the last player at the dance. Cutting free snacks, charging for the first checked bag is a moot point right now. I believe this is how cabotage will become our reality. The legacies will all go bankrupt, because there is no access to the liquidity markets this time around there will be no way to restructure. Faced with the liquidation of the entire industry, the government will find it suitable to allow Air France, Lufthansa and BA to come in and buy the carriers to preserve the U.S. transportation system.

Global carriers will be the reality and the once shining star of the world's airline network (U.S. airlines) will be erased.

RJtrashPilot

Very interesting perspective. While I think it may be a bit radical and extreme, it is a very sobering way of viewing the industry as a whole. Very well put!

IADBLRJ41

Didn't UAL exit plan from CHP 11 include $55 oil? I kinda remember that but they were able to post a profit with oil much higher.

I think UAL will have some bumpy days ahead with the cost of oil but what airline does not have its challenge. Something has got to give in order for this whole industry to make it through.

My money is on UAL to pull through somehow.

There is line

DAL4EVER has a good point but I doubt it will be the European carriers s/he mentioned. AF has lost a lot of money on this year's 1st quarter cting high fuel price as the chief reason. LH and BA are still profitable but won't be at 150$/bbl.
Sadly the Middle Eaestern carriers don't have to worry about the price of fuel. Some Asian ones have so much cash on hand that they will be well positioned to buy a failing US major or take over its route system or part of it.
Unless things change, within the next 2 years I can see Singapore Airlines with a major hub in IAD and Emirates or Etihad with one in MSP.
Just my 2 cents.

RJtrashPilot

That's an interesting thought. Just curious, why do you say MSP of all places?

There is line

I think UAL and NWA are the 2 domestic airlines that are both financially vulnerable and have an attractive route system.

newKnow

Why do you think that? Please. Details.

Young Jack

I read an article a few years back and two things always stuck out at me. #1 airlines have an unusually high barrier to exit. #2 Everbody makes money off the airline except for the airline i.e. labor, creditors, management etc...

IMO, airlines have become such a part of the national economy that we cannot really afford for one that size to fail. Furlough, downsize, pay cuts, mergers...yes. Liquidation unlikely. We cant even strike anymore! Liquidation, I think not.

And with a bunch of democrats and the possibility of a chicago politician as POTUS. United maybe the place to be!

HercDriver130

now that is an interesting thought....... they wont let a pilot group strike because of the disruption to the national economy.... will they let someone like UAL or USAIR go under ..... and even worse effect....... interesting.