Oil prices spiralling out of control again!!!
03-27-2008, 02:41 PM
#51
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 80
This argument is somewhat pointless. Oil is rising. Speculation? Sure, but demand is out stripping supply. When I said oil would be over 100 a few years ago my colleagues laughed. They aren't laughing now. Nor are they willing to bet that I'm wrong in predicting 200 dollar oil in 3 years. Any takers?
03-27-2008, 03:21 PM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Do you know how much oil the world uses in a month? And this field will only net 773 million barrels in 20 years. Did you see the price tag of getting at a measly 773 million barrels? Do you know how long that 'Gaint' oil field would last the US? I don't know if I believe all these doom sayers but your article on this 'giant oil field' in Brazil is making a case for the peak oil people.
This is what I gathered from the first article: "The experience of Brazil's offshore drilling is proving that giant new oil fields are out there, waiting to be discovered, just off shore along the continental shelf."
It's not the size of the single oil field; it's that there are a lot of undiscovered oil fields. That article was written in 2005. Here's one from 2007: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_7067372.htm
While each new discovered field only adds 1 or 2% to the daily world oil supply, how many newly discovered fields need to be tapped in order to satiate the world's thirst for oil.
As far as increasing world consumption of oil, if prices continue to rise, we will use oil more efficiently and switch to alternative fuels.
I believe that the earth's inhabitants will solve any future fuel problems. From reading Peak Oilers' forecasts, it sounds like they expect a future similar to that in 'Idiocracy.' (HIGHLY recommend the movie; has the potential to be another 'Office Space'). The premise of Peak Oilers is that we are now living on earth in the best of times; better than both the past and future.
I see our standard of living continuing to get better with each passing decade. I envision something along the lines of Disney's Carousel of Progress. (I used to torture my son with that ride when I wanted to find a cool place to sit down rather than stand in line). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKz6qdexetY
All of my life, I've read and heard dire predictions for the future. I have faith that there are a lot of people much smarter than me who will be able to solve many of our problems. Hey, it's a great big beautiful tomorrow just a dream away.
Great debate.
03-27-2008, 03:23 PM
#53
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
As far as demand outstripping supply, what is your source? I've been tracking this in the financial media for a long time, and I've seen more and more articles indicating a growth in oil and oil product supply over the last two months, independent of the time of year.
03-27-2008, 03:23 PM
#54
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: 1st year pay for the 3rd time
Posts: 1,434
This argument is somewhat pointless. Oil is rising. Speculation? Sure, but demand is out stripping supply. When I said oil would be over 100 a few years ago my colleagues laughed. They aren't laughing now. Nor are they willing to bet that I'm wrong in predicting 200 dollar oil in 3 years. Any takers?
03-27-2008, 05:37 PM
#56
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 80
Andy.
We will call it a cyberbet. Lot's of variables in the world but I think it's a safe wager, albeit with no money because if I'm right I'll be out of a job and have none.
Most of the media coverage on this issue is from finance people. To really find the truth you have to dig in to what the geologists are saying. They are the experts.
Cheers.
We will call it a cyberbet. Lot's of variables in the world but I think it's a safe wager, albeit with no money because if I'm right I'll be out of a job and have none.
Most of the media coverage on this issue is from finance people. To really find the truth you have to dig in to what the geologists are saying. They are the experts.
Cheers.
03-27-2008, 05:57 PM
#57
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
AA gear puller, if you're that close to the bottom, you'll be out of a job anyway. This upcoming recession is going to put a LOT of us on the street. Oil demand is going to drop like a rock and put searches for alternative energy sources on hold, just as what happened in the late 70s.
What's your over/under on oil at the end of 2008? I'm getting old and will probably have alzheimer's by 2011.
What's your over/under on oil at the end of 2008? I'm getting old and will probably have alzheimer's by 2011.
03-27-2008, 06:44 PM
#59
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: Work
Posts: 507
If people want to make a difference, start convincing others to not purchase 10mpg vechiles that were originally designed to be combat vehicles. There is no need for anyone to cart themselves around suburbia in a Hummer, none, period. I can't wait till those damn things are off the road.
Next, tell your buddies who cannot possibly drive anything other than a ten ton pickup to ask themselves why they are driving it in the first place. Over 90% of those gas guzzlers are not needed by those who drive them. By the way, while you are driving them around at 75mph and giving me dirty looks because I am at 63mph (getting around 35mpg), don't you dare whine about how much gas is costing you. This message applies to SUVs and other such large vehicles.
Efficient driving techniques plus a much more efficient fleet can greatly reduce the amount of oil we use in less than a decade. I've seen studies that show 4-6 million barrels per day can be saved just from these types of relatively minor improvements. If the EU, with over 400 million people, can get by on 14 million barrels per day I believe that the USA can certainly make do on 14 million if we so choose to.
Next, tell your buddies who cannot possibly drive anything other than a ten ton pickup to ask themselves why they are driving it in the first place. Over 90% of those gas guzzlers are not needed by those who drive them. By the way, while you are driving them around at 75mph and giving me dirty looks because I am at 63mph (getting around 35mpg), don't you dare whine about how much gas is costing you. This message applies to SUVs and other such large vehicles.
Efficient driving techniques plus a much more efficient fleet can greatly reduce the amount of oil we use in less than a decade. I've seen studies that show 4-6 million barrels per day can be saved just from these types of relatively minor improvements. If the EU, with over 400 million people, can get by on 14 million barrels per day I believe that the USA can certainly make do on 14 million if we so choose to.
03-27-2008, 06:55 PM
#60
A moment please...
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: Just passin' thru
Posts: 769
AA gear puller, if you're that close to the bottom, you'll be out of a job anyway. This upcoming recession is going to put a LOT of us on the street. Oil demand is going to drop like a rock and put searches for alternative energy sources on hold, just as what happened in the late 70s.
What's your over/under on oil at the end of 2008? I'm getting old and will probably have alzheimer's by 2011.
What's your over/under on oil at the end of 2008? I'm getting old and will probably have alzheimer's by 2011.
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