Andy

You guys REALLY want to save a bunch of oil? Cut back airline block hours by 5%. Get ready; it's coming.

NoWake200

That was a funny post!!

The Duke

GearPuller,

I read the article you mention here, called "Peak Oil: The collapse of Commercial Aviation" by Alex Kuhlman. I have not been able to post a link yet, but it can be found in Wikipedia under "Peak Oil", scroll down to the bottom, the article can be downloaded using Adobe. The article literally sent chills down my spine and still does because everything we're seeing today was predicted spot on in that article. Required reading for every commercial airline pilot, in my opinion.

Anyhow, I agree w/ you on this one...virtually all my posts here on this site center around Peak Oil. Next to aviation and a couple of other hobbies of mine, peak oil is what I'm most passionate about. I get kind of giddy when I finally here other pilots mention "peak oil". It's such a simple concept, I'm really surprised more people haven't heard about it. But yes, I agree, oil price has less to do w/ the modern day market place and more to do w/ very basic geological principles and mathematics. I can't possibly fathom worldwide demand slackening any w/ exponential population growth and desire to continuously enhance GDP. The only way we'll see prices decline steeply is if there is a catasrophic worldwide economic depression. If that happens, the last thing we'll be concerned about will be the cost of oil. But, gosh darn it, if someone could somehow get the article you've mentioned by Alex Kuhlman in the '06 Airways Mag posted on this site, it would be great. I have many of my FOs read it, they usually get really quiet for sometime after they're done reading it.

The Duke

Andy

Duke, I was concerned about future oil prices back in the 70s. I did a lot of reading on alternative energy sources - they were popular back then, just as today. I was extremely interested in running cars on higher alcohol ratios; they were doing it in Brazil. Of course it was a LOT cheaper for Brazil to convert sugar cane into auto alcohol than we were doing on converting corn into alcohol here in the US. That, and alcohol has less BTUs per gallon than gasoline, so it's less efficient. I either read or drew the conclusion that we would consume the cheapest fuels first and convert to other sources of fuel as our primary source becomes more expensive.
We have improved oil field extraction techniques and are able to recover more oil than had been previously projected. There are also several large oil fields that are yet to be tapped. In spite of current oil prices, there is very little talk of tapping ANWR.
Until a great deal of effort is made to alternative energy sources and there is serious debate of opening ANWR, I'm not going to lose much sleep over peak oil.

I believe that man will be able to exploit other energy sources prior to reaching a critical shortage of oil.
Man will either curtail our population growth or we will reach a point of Malthusian catastrophe. Either way, the growing resource consumption problem will be solved.

Flounder

I gotta say that I think Andy (above) and js081285's comments about nuclear energy are spot on. Call me a melon head (brace), but I grew up with a Dad in the oil fields, I live in a peak oil production region of the US, and the airfield I fly out of has close to 2,000 wind turbines w/in a 100 NM radius. Yes I drive a BIG TRUCK and my wife has a SUV; the price of oil would not be so high if 1) wall street didn't jack oil prices every time a mouse farts and 2) the US pulled it's head out and look for a safe , reliable, energy source for the country--nuclear. Heck, even the French do that correctly...

Standing by for impact.

Andy

Hey Flounder, how MPG do you get with those vehicles?
Most of the cars I remember driving in the 70s got less than 10 MPG. Even the econoboxes - Pinto, Gremlin, etc - got no more than the low 20s MPG.

Technology has made vehicles more fuel efficient. The current hybrid technology will be incorporated in tomorrow's vehicles, making my wife's 23 MPG Acura TL seem like a gas hog.

scrapdog

Spot on post. No one forced us into this position, we all chose it. Airline flying is a job - no more, no less. I chose it because I enjoy flying (which flying an airliner is average at best), I enjoy going on trips with a good crew and nice locations, and above all - it fits well with my military job.

Being in a transportation/service job is going to have its ups and downs based on the economy and energy prices. But that's the price you pay to be in this industry. Just chill out...as my Dad always says "it's all going to work out in the end."

zondaracer

As far as running jet engines on chinese grease, Air Force C-17's have been approved to run on synthetic fuels. And hey, if you get more piston aircraft running on diesel engines, they could all potentially be running on biodiesel, or a blend.

scrapdog

Speaking of which, info from Continental as of March 13th...

HOUSTON, March 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL), Boeing (NYSE: BA) and GE Aviation (NYSE: GE) today announced plans to conduct a biofuels demonstration flight in the first half of 2009 in an effort to identify sustainable fuel solutions for the aviation industry. Continental is the first major U.S. carrier to announce plans to highlight technological advancements in sustainable biofuels that can help to further reduce carbon emissions.
"Exploring sustainable biofuels is a logical and exciting new step in our environmental commitment. For more than a decade, we have been focused on reducing fuel consumption and carbon emissions, while providing industry-leading service to the places our customers want to go," said Mark Moran, Continental Airlines executive vice president of operations. "Boeing and GE Aviation have been frontrunners in pioneering technology that will benefit the aviation industry, customers, and the environment, and we are pleased to benefit from their expertise in this venture."
"Continental has been aggressively pursuing efforts to reduce carbon emissions for years, and continues to focus attention on providing innovative solutions," said Ray Conner, executive vice president, sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "They clearly recognize the need for environmental improvement across the industry and have embraced that challenge through fleet modernization and the economic and social benefits that sustainable environmental technologies can provide to their operations and to their passengers."
"Continental is taking an important step in advancing the use of sustainable biofuels in aviation," said Scott Donnelly, president and CEO of GE Aviation. "Working with our jet engine team at CFM International, GE has considerable experience in evaluating biofuels in jet engines for aviation and in aeroderivative engines for marine and industrial applications. GE and CFM are eager to get started in supporting Continental's exciting program."
The biofuel flight will use a Boeing Next-Generation 737 equipped with CFM International CFM56-7B engines. CFM is a 50/50 joint company of General Electric Company and Snecma (SAFRAN Group). In the months leading up to the flight, Continental, Boeing and GE will work together and with an undisclosed fuel provider to identify sustainable fuel sources that don't impact food crops, water resources or contribute to deforestation, and which can be produced in sufficient quantities to support a pre-flight test schedule that includes laboratory and ground-based jet engine performance testing to ensure compliance with stringent aviation fuel performance and safety requirements.
As part of a broader industry effort, Boeing and other industry thought leaders, including airlines and engine manufacturers, are helping to guide the aviation sector toward sustainable biofuels produced through advanced biomass conversion technologies and processes that have the potential to reduce greenhouse gases throughout their lifecycle. Sustainable biofuels for aviation incorporate second-generation methodologies relative to fuel source selection and processing, which are uniquely suited for aerospace use. These biofuels can then be blended with kerosene fuel (Jet-A) to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Additional details, including the flight plan, will be announced closer to the demonstration flight date.
Continental's participation in this project is part of a company-wide commitment to environmental responsibility. The airline has achieved a 35 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption per mainline revenue passenger mile flown over the past 10 years. This is due in large part to the efforts of its employees in streamlining operational procedures and to an investment of more than $12 billion to acquire 270 fuel-efficient aircraft and related equipment. Continental remains committed to investing in a fuel-efficient fleet and is a launch customer for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, powered by GE engines. In addition to providing passengers with a better flying experience, the 787 Dreamliner also will provide operators with a more environmentally efficient jetliner, including lower carbon emissions and quieter takeoffs and landings.
Continental has also reduced, by 75 percent, nitrogen oxide emissions from ground equipment at the carrier's largest hub, in Houston, through switching to electric ground service equipment and other new technology. This technology is now being tested for use in cold climates.
Through these investments and other projects, including the construction of airport facilities in an environmentally responsible manner, the testing of alternative fuels in ground service equipment, offering a credible carbon offsetting program based on the actual fuel burn of the Continental fleet, and an expansive recycling program, Continental will continue to manage the environmental impact of its business.

Scoop

The 1973 Gremlin - now that was a sweet ride!
Scoop

PS - The above post is intended to be sarcastic.