Is there a safe future for Pilots? My Son's Question
10-06-2007, 02:20 PM
#1
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Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 58
Is there a safe future for Pilots? My Son's Question
Hey Guys,
First off, I want to say this is my sons account i set up for him...
I am a pilot of 18 years, and fly for Southwest. I really enjoy my job, and am glad my son also wants to carry on his fathers tradition. However, this morning he asked me a question. he said "Dad? is there a chance the aviation industry might not last long enough for me to enter as a pilot?" and i tried to answer in the usual fatherly way, "No son, people will always need to get to places fast, the industry will definitely last a very long time." But, then i started thinking about it...
Now, i must say, i have found myself curious to ask you guys what you guys thought as well? do you guys find problems with the industry such as the oil crisis? people drifting from the airline industry because of fear of flying? you know the general stuff.... is there a possibility of collapse of the industry? I want to secure my sons future, he is a aviation nut, as i was at his age...
Well i want to thank you those that post any responses, they are greatly appreciated...
Sincerely,
Timothy Walters
Oakland, CA
First off, I want to say this is my sons account i set up for him...
I am a pilot of 18 years, and fly for Southwest. I really enjoy my job, and am glad my son also wants to carry on his fathers tradition. However, this morning he asked me a question. he said "Dad? is there a chance the aviation industry might not last long enough for me to enter as a pilot?" and i tried to answer in the usual fatherly way, "No son, people will always need to get to places fast, the industry will definitely last a very long time." But, then i started thinking about it...
Now, i must say, i have found myself curious to ask you guys what you guys thought as well? do you guys find problems with the industry such as the oil crisis? people drifting from the airline industry because of fear of flying? you know the general stuff.... is there a possibility of collapse of the industry? I want to secure my sons future, he is a aviation nut, as i was at his age...
Well i want to thank you those that post any responses, they are greatly appreciated...
Sincerely,
Timothy Walters
Oakland, CA
10-06-2007, 02:48 PM
#2
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Joined APC: Sep 2007
Posts: 81
The only thing that worries me is low time new hires going to the commuters, upgrading to jet CA in 9 months and then flying into a difficult airport like DCA during winter with snow on the runway!!! Lets just say I wouldnt want my loved ones on that flight. A few accidents due to inexperience and the flying public will think commuter pilots (1500 hrs) are the same as major airline pilots (9000 hrs). Then people will be more fearful to fly.
10-06-2007, 03:08 PM
#3
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Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 193
I started in 1976 just before deregulation. At times the changes to the industry were insidious (inflation, taxes, etc). Other times quite dramatic (deregulation, ATC strike, oil, 9-11, economy swings). Each of these takes its toll and when the gains arrive during the good times they never quite makes up for what was lost during the bad times. If the next 30 years sees half the decay I saw there will not be much of a career left for the new guys just starting out today.
This link really puts things in perspective:
http://www.landings.com/_landings/st...ainicarus.html
The ramifications to the career can be predicted on how technology, when introduced into a technical specialty has played out before in other fields. If the rewards for pilots don't continue the slide I will be very surprised.
There should be doubt the Next Gen ATC system will be designed with commercial UAVs in mind. Perhaps not totally replacing a human monitor on passenger flights for 20-30 years, but cargo perhaps in 10-15.
When I went through Air Force pilot training I never in my wildest dreams thought the Air Force would stand up a UAV wing.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hta.../20070712.aspx
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?...5&archive=true
I think he could make a go of it. Perhaps one or two generations of flying left. Question is: Will he be happy doing it for half or less over a career than you got for doing it?
This link really puts things in perspective:
http://www.landings.com/_landings/st...ainicarus.html
The ramifications to the career can be predicted on how technology, when introduced into a technical specialty has played out before in other fields. If the rewards for pilots don't continue the slide I will be very surprised.
There should be doubt the Next Gen ATC system will be designed with commercial UAVs in mind. Perhaps not totally replacing a human monitor on passenger flights for 20-30 years, but cargo perhaps in 10-15.
When I went through Air Force pilot training I never in my wildest dreams thought the Air Force would stand up a UAV wing.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hta.../20070712.aspx
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?...5&archive=true
I think he could make a go of it. Perhaps one or two generations of flying left. Question is: Will he be happy doing it for half or less over a career than you got for doing it?
Last edited by seaav8tor; 10-06-2007 at 03:25 PM.
10-06-2007, 03:10 PM
#4
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Joined APC: Jun 2005
Position: Retired
Posts: 2,934
Are the low-time pilots of today any more dangerous than the low-time pilots of the 60s and 70s at the majors? It's cyclical and the hiring is probably at or near a peak right now. When there are fewer openings, the requirements will go back up.
Having said that, yes. There is a future in the industry. It's not immune to any of the items you've stated but our economy wouldn't survive without commercial aviation. People need to get where they're going, and taking three days to drive coast to coast or a week to take a ship to Europe is not feasable, or cost effective.
Having said that, yes. There is a future in the industry. It's not immune to any of the items you've stated but our economy wouldn't survive without commercial aviation. People need to get where they're going, and taking three days to drive coast to coast or a week to take a ship to Europe is not feasable, or cost effective.
10-06-2007, 03:35 PM
#6
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Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: 737 CA MIA
Posts: 1,042
I say RVSM has made flying less safe. Hardly anyone is talking about strategic offsets. It should be mandatory and systematic. W-Bound .5 mile offset right. E-Bound .5 mile offset Left. For GPS FMC/FMS.
TCAS should show alll aircraft in the vacinity in the event you have an emergency.
Most TCAS only shows threats +/- 2500' when in Both mode. Each model is slightly different.
TCAS should show alll aircraft in the vacinity in the event you have an emergency.
Most TCAS only shows threats +/- 2500' when in Both mode. Each model is slightly different.
10-06-2007, 03:37 PM
#7
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Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: 737 CA MIA
Posts: 1,042
I say RVSM has made flying less safe. Hardly anyone is talking about strategic offsets. It should be mandatory and systematic. W-Bound .5 mile offset right. E-Bound .5 mile offset Left. For GPS FMC/FMS.
TCAS should show alll aircraft in the vacinity in the event you have an emergency.
Most TCAS only shows threats +/- 2500' when in Both mode. Each model is slightly different.
TCAS should show alll aircraft in the vacinity in the event you have an emergency.
Most TCAS only shows threats +/- 2500' when in Both mode. Each model is slightly different.
Yikes
10-06-2007, 03:50 PM
#8
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Joined APC: Sep 2007
Posts: 207
I sure hope there's a future. I don't suspect the traveling public would ever board an unmanned aircraft. We haven't made buses unmanned and they aren't near as dangerous or complex as an airplane, imo. We don't have any unmanned vehicular travel that I'm aware of. Now, I'm not talking about trains/subways, they're attached to the road they travel and don't enjoy the same freedoms. As a 37yr old who intends on a flying career after retirement from the Navy I would just like to say that I feel comfortable enought to go for it. What the he!!, lets do it! Call me crazy. I joined the Navy hoping to one day fly but of course we don't let our enlisted fly. That one day is coming but not as an enlisted member.
10-06-2007, 03:53 PM
#9
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10-06-2007, 03:54 PM
#10
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Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 58
Hey Guys...
First, Thanks for the posts:
Second, Hes a nut for aviation, hes into things i wish i had when i was younger, this flight simulation stuff. I mean the kid can practically out fly me.... hes doing full DME arc and VOR approaches, he can do Radial TACAN approaches into Honolulu.... the wifey gets on me for letting him do so much flight simulation, but, i would've done the same at his age. Anyways, he wants to go Civil... unlike me, i went through the service, joining back in 89, flew for the Air Force during the Gulf. Got many hours of valuable experience. I was snatched up by Southwest in 95. been flying ever since. i had stressed to him to go through Mil, but he says he loves the idea of going civil. Which, unknown to him, is painfully echoing $$$ in my ears
. But, to answer the question he is the kinda kid i was, didnt care what he flew just wanted to put on that capt. cap every morning with a hot cup of coffee knowing the day is a long one. He says he envies me, i take him up every once in awhile, he loves to use up my alloted employee seats by the window... ive taken him everywhere, he loves it....
Just makes me feel kinda guilty you know? That i cant really help him out with his plan to go through civil, because i was brought up in the Air Force. I never had the experience of going from your PPL to your ATP, just something else i missed out on...
Love the advice, and is there any other suggestions?
Appreciate it guys
First, Thanks for the posts:
Second, Hes a nut for aviation, hes into things i wish i had when i was younger, this flight simulation stuff. I mean the kid can practically out fly me.... hes doing full DME arc and VOR approaches, he can do Radial TACAN approaches into Honolulu.... the wifey gets on me for letting him do so much flight simulation, but, i would've done the same at his age. Anyways, he wants to go Civil... unlike me, i went through the service, joining back in 89, flew for the Air Force during the Gulf. Got many hours of valuable experience. I was snatched up by Southwest in 95. been flying ever since. i had stressed to him to go through Mil, but he says he loves the idea of going civil. Which, unknown to him, is painfully echoing $$$ in my ears
. But, to answer the question he is the kinda kid i was, didnt care what he flew just wanted to put on that capt. cap every morning with a hot cup of coffee knowing the day is a long one. He says he envies me, i take him up every once in awhile, he loves to use up my alloted employee seats by the window... ive taken him everywhere, he loves it....Just makes me feel kinda guilty you know? That i cant really help him out with his plan to go through civil, because i was brought up in the Air Force. I never had the experience of going from your PPL to your ATP, just something else i missed out on...
Love the advice, and is there any other suggestions?
Appreciate it guys
