Is there a safe future for Pilots? My Son's Question
10-07-2007, 10:03 AM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2006
Posts: 224
My two cents...Oil is not what worries me about the future of the pax industry (short term anyway). I'm more worried about when (not "if", according to the experts) the terrorists shoot a MANPAD at a plane domestically. It doesn't have to bring the plane down, it doesn't even have to hit it, the result will be the same--no one will fly. The gov't, anxious to get this 10% of the economy going again, has two reassurances they will try and sell. 1. We'll equip the carriers with defenses (years to equip all) and 2. We'll patrol the areas around airports (ridiculous). This scenario is why I would advise your son to look for a different career and fly as a hobby.
I would also advise him to read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman; it will help him understand what is going to influence his generations' careers.
If he still is hell bent on flying, I would have him go to get a bachelors degree in something non-flying related, and join AFROTC or go to OTS after college and get a UPT slot (go to www.baseops.net, forums to see whats involved). We're going to be needing military pilots for a long time....
I would also advise him to read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman; it will help him understand what is going to influence his generations' careers.
If he still is hell bent on flying, I would have him go to get a bachelors degree in something non-flying related, and join AFROTC or go to OTS after college and get a UPT slot (go to www.baseops.net, forums to see whats involved). We're going to be needing military pilots for a long time....
10-07-2007, 10:37 AM
#63
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
The biggest deterrent to fully automated aircraft is software. If the source code was leaked to the wrong people, i.e. terrorists, the entire world's fleet would be grounded until the software was completely re-written, which takes several years.
The reason I think we have seen the decline of the pilot profession is because of the way the companies are run now as compared to before the "bad times'. We have switched from what was essentially a luxury service system, to a mass transit system. Instead of growth through service increases, the companies chose growth from cost cutting.(we can thank the Japanese for the theories behind this type of business) The SWA business model is the best example of growth through cost cutting.
The question is how do we get it back? Well, like any profession that makes a lot of money, the customer has to value the service being given. For example choosing a successful attorney is going to cost you more than a non-successful one, the same goes for doctors, executives, sports players, etc. The passengers would like to have the most qualified pilots on board, however, they will always choose the cheaper ticket. This is because when passengers look at ticket price, they value it to the service being offered. So they only see $150 vs $160 to get from point A to B with bad service. The customer has no way to put a value on the pilots performing the service because they have no idea how much the pilot gets out of the price of the ticket. If you asked anyone on the street, they would probably tell you 30-50% is for the pilots, when in actuality it is more like 3-5%. So to get our money back, you have to assign a value to that service, the only way to do that is through a service fee separate to the ticket price. i.e. the ticket costs $150 plus a $10 crew service charge, that $10 is enough to boost the pay of every crew member on board by 100% or more. People would certainly be willing to pay that price because it assesses a value to the service being performed...if they pay more for pilots they think the are getting a safer flight. Passengers will pay for safety, they will not pay for service. You simply just can't raise the price of tickets because the passenger only equates that to service and not to safety.
The reason I think we have seen the decline of the pilot profession is because of the way the companies are run now as compared to before the "bad times'. We have switched from what was essentially a luxury service system, to a mass transit system. Instead of growth through service increases, the companies chose growth from cost cutting.(we can thank the Japanese for the theories behind this type of business) The SWA business model is the best example of growth through cost cutting.
The question is how do we get it back? Well, like any profession that makes a lot of money, the customer has to value the service being given. For example choosing a successful attorney is going to cost you more than a non-successful one, the same goes for doctors, executives, sports players, etc. The passengers would like to have the most qualified pilots on board, however, they will always choose the cheaper ticket. This is because when passengers look at ticket price, they value it to the service being offered. So they only see $150 vs $160 to get from point A to B with bad service. The customer has no way to put a value on the pilots performing the service because they have no idea how much the pilot gets out of the price of the ticket. If you asked anyone on the street, they would probably tell you 30-50% is for the pilots, when in actuality it is more like 3-5%. So to get our money back, you have to assign a value to that service, the only way to do that is through a service fee separate to the ticket price. i.e. the ticket costs $150 plus a $10 crew service charge, that $10 is enough to boost the pay of every crew member on board by 100% or more. People would certainly be willing to pay that price because it assesses a value to the service being performed...if they pay more for pilots they think the are getting a safer flight. Passengers will pay for safety, they will not pay for service. You simply just can't raise the price of tickets because the passenger only equates that to service and not to safety.
10-07-2007, 09:00 PM
#65
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: B777 FO
Posts: 416
How very arrogant of you, to actually think anyone has hurt feelings over this forum. Anyway, the point is that your comments are lost in the smart a$$ attitude.
10-07-2007, 11:18 PM
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: rj 700/900
Posts: 506
An Oil shortage is the last thing you need to worry about concerning your son’s future pilot career. Opec has to keep the cost in check to keep out new money in exploration, and other fuel options. You wil never see the price of oil get “excessively” high for any extended amount of time.
At $80 a barrel folks are looking at other now cost effective ways of getting oil.
Oil shale extraction
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_extraction
http://www.connect-utah.com/article....1&iid=58&sid=3
Terrorism and continued poor government intervention on a “deregulated industry” are what you really need to worry about.
The execs are masters of loopholes. They have figured out that you don’t really need to concern yourself with running an airline long-term; when it fails the government will step in and bail them out. They take there money retire send their kids to Harvard and the cycle continue's.
Poor government intervention is compounding the problem, putting ban aids on broken arms so to speak. Not allowing employees to effectively strike in a “deregulated industry” leads to massive turnover, poor service, delayed flights, etc. We need to be a fully deregulated or regulated industry period. What we have today as far as quality of life will continue to degrade until one or the other happens. Because of the bureaucratic nature of our government it will be later rather than sooner when something happens.
The airline industry is very volatile because of the above mentioned items, personally I will steer my children away from aviation as a profession.
At $80 a barrel folks are looking at other now cost effective ways of getting oil.
Oil shale extraction
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_extraction
http://www.connect-utah.com/article....1&iid=58&sid=3
Terrorism and continued poor government intervention on a “deregulated industry” are what you really need to worry about.
The execs are masters of loopholes. They have figured out that you don’t really need to concern yourself with running an airline long-term; when it fails the government will step in and bail them out. They take there money retire send their kids to Harvard and the cycle continue's.
Poor government intervention is compounding the problem, putting ban aids on broken arms so to speak. Not allowing employees to effectively strike in a “deregulated industry” leads to massive turnover, poor service, delayed flights, etc. We need to be a fully deregulated or regulated industry period. What we have today as far as quality of life will continue to degrade until one or the other happens. Because of the bureaucratic nature of our government it will be later rather than sooner when something happens.
The airline industry is very volatile because of the above mentioned items, personally I will steer my children away from aviation as a profession.
10-08-2007, 01:31 AM
#67
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 193
Thats funny because my old boss who retired from AA on the A-300 after 30 years never went to college and use to go up in non-certified a/c to see how much ice he could pick up....................and he flew hundreds of people around in a A-300 not RJ, so your ignorant comment makes little sense, after all I was a B- student and have 2 busted rides so I guess that makes me dangerous.........
Your grades were a little high. Like I said C- not B-, close enough. You need to add 1 more busted check ride. At that point you will be able to convince the HR dept at any airline your expectations are low enough you will be happy ever after on less pay.
Congrats, you broke the code!
10-08-2007, 07:12 AM
#68
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,050
My two cents...Oil is not what worries me about the future of the pax industry (short term anyway). I'm more worried about when (not "if", according to the experts) the terrorists shoot a MANPAD at a plane domestically. It doesn't have to bring the plane down, it doesn't even have to hit it, the result will be the same--no one will fly. The gov't, anxious to get this 10% of the economy going again, has two reassurances they will try and sell. 1. We'll equip the carriers with defenses (years to equip all) and 2. We'll patrol the areas around airports (ridiculous).
Manpads are inneffective against airliners, that's not what they are designed for. Russian double and triple digit SAM's are scary...they would have a 100% percent chance of dropping an airliner (maybe 50% if operated by arabs). But those systemsr are large, require a crew, mobile launcher, control vehicle, mobile radar(s) and/or integrated air defense system. Hard to sneak all that into the US
I'm not sure that a near-miss with a manpad would bother the flying public. I think our collective cherry was popped on 9/11, and we are more acclimated to terrorist acts going forward. Look at the Isrealis...they go about their business despite weekly terrorist attacks.
Also, if you wanted an anti-manpad system, the most economical solution WOULD be an airport area defense. Airliners are only vulnerable while very near the airport (low altitude). An ground-based AESA radar could instantly detect a pop-up missile and then switch to directed energy-mode and sizzle the missile's electronics (or you could zap it's seeker with a special wavelength laser). The operative word in manpad is MAN...as in man-portable. The things have to be so light that they are really limited in their sophistication...they are not hardened against high-powered jamming.
10-08-2007, 07:28 AM
#69
On Reserve
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 23
KW - Here's my 0.02. If your boy is considering flying as a career, I would say this. If you are looking at the cost benefits of educating your son and enabling his aviation dreams, I would encourage him to go to the military (Navy or AF). The training is second to none and if his commercial aviation carrer is degrading at an unacceptable rate while he his 7-10 year service commitment, he would have the option of staying to his 20 year retirement. Additionally, the experiences, friends and maturity gained as a military aviator are without equal.
Secondly, I would encourage you to be financially smart and also to retire at 60 or earlier. If you are here asking how the civilian aviation landscape will be for your son or some of your fellow pilots' children, you must consider how your actions effect you son's dreams. SWA and other top tier jobs are very hard to attain. I do think there is a slow degradation of these top tier jobs. By staying 5 more years only hurts his chances by that much. Contrary to popular belief, there is not a pilot shortage. There is only a shortage in jobs that pay unlivable wages. Imagine your son's road trying to pay back college loans, buy house, start a family, ensuring decent medical coverage on some of the regional wages. Our children's QOL is going to be less than ours, it is only a matter of how much.
Spartan
ps. An added plug for the military is that your meical is paid 100%. Check out military pay rates for O-1/2/3.
Secondly, I would encourage you to be financially smart and also to retire at 60 or earlier. If you are here asking how the civilian aviation landscape will be for your son or some of your fellow pilots' children, you must consider how your actions effect you son's dreams. SWA and other top tier jobs are very hard to attain. I do think there is a slow degradation of these top tier jobs. By staying 5 more years only hurts his chances by that much. Contrary to popular belief, there is not a pilot shortage. There is only a shortage in jobs that pay unlivable wages. Imagine your son's road trying to pay back college loans, buy house, start a family, ensuring decent medical coverage on some of the regional wages. Our children's QOL is going to be less than ours, it is only a matter of how much.
Spartan
ps. An added plug for the military is that your meical is paid 100%. Check out military pay rates for O-1/2/3.
10-08-2007, 07:56 AM
#70
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: The Right One
Posts: 588
A large number of friends have the time and seniority to upgrade right now but aren't. Why? The overwhelming answer is to see another winter and learn. I think it's incredibly smart and shows how serious they are about doing a good job. ......... We're not all sitting up there to look cool. A vast majority of us are absorbing everything we can so we're safe captains down the road.
Only two reasons I know of a guy doesn't upgrade:
1. The upgrade will have a negative effect on his/family's QOL, now or in the future. (assigned base/schedule etc..)
2. He/she is concerned (read: afraid) that the attempt to upgrade may not be successful
, then see #1
