Is there a safe future for Pilots? My Son's Question
10-07-2007, 09:15 AM
#54
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Trophy Husband
Posts: 40
Most of you are worried about the wrong stuff. Instead of answering the OP's question everyone is doghumping the low time pilots. 
I think the OP's question is will his son be able, in 20-30 years, to enjoy the same standard of living and job security that he does now. This concerns me a bit too, as I look at a career in the majors. A career that will have to employ me for the next 30 years. I don't myopically worry that an RJ pilot may have less time than I do, or less than pilots a decade ago had. Who cares.
I worry more about petroleum. There is a big crisis looming in the next couple decades. We are just beginning to see ripples from it now. We have already reached and surpassed peak oil. In other words, for the first time demand meets supply. No new refineries are being built. Even the middle east can't buckle down and create a surplus. The rate of finding new fields has decreased dramatically. Sure, there are vast shale fields in canada, but that is expensive for little return. Oceanic oil rigs are having to drill deeper and deeper. China and the rest of Asia are gearing up their auto industries; for the first time they have a middle class and owning cars will become the norm for them too. They want the lifestyle we've enjoyed and now they can afford it.
How will this effect us. I don't think we will suddenly run out of oil anytime soon. In 50 years there will still be folks driving or flying fossil fuel powered vehicles. However, we are starting to slide down the backside of the bell curve. Demand will start to greatly exceed supply and we will see prices climb ever higher. In 20 years there will still be 737's criss-crossing the country- but the price of a ticket??? I think flying may eventually become more like it was in the 50's. More of a luxury than it is today. Gone will be the days of loading up the family and flying round trip to disney world for $89 a ticket.
I think the OP's question is will his son be able, in 20-30 years, to enjoy the same standard of living and job security that he does now. This concerns me a bit too, as I look at a career in the majors. A career that will have to employ me for the next 30 years. I don't myopically worry that an RJ pilot may have less time than I do, or less than pilots a decade ago had. Who cares.
I worry more about petroleum. There is a big crisis looming in the next couple decades. We are just beginning to see ripples from it now. We have already reached and surpassed peak oil. In other words, for the first time demand meets supply. No new refineries are being built. Even the middle east can't buckle down and create a surplus. The rate of finding new fields has decreased dramatically. Sure, there are vast shale fields in canada, but that is expensive for little return. Oceanic oil rigs are having to drill deeper and deeper. China and the rest of Asia are gearing up their auto industries; for the first time they have a middle class and owning cars will become the norm for them too. They want the lifestyle we've enjoyed and now they can afford it.
How will this effect us. I don't think we will suddenly run out of oil anytime soon. In 50 years there will still be folks driving or flying fossil fuel powered vehicles. However, we are starting to slide down the backside of the bell curve. Demand will start to greatly exceed supply and we will see prices climb ever higher. In 20 years there will still be 737's criss-crossing the country- but the price of a ticket??? I think flying may eventually become more like it was in the 50's. More of a luxury than it is today. Gone will be the days of loading up the family and flying round trip to disney world for $89 a ticket.
10-07-2007, 10:15 AM
#55
Line Holder
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 58
328Dude, ill see you there, save me a cold one 
Huggy Bear, YES!!! that was my point. I am not worried about safety, because even though we see younger and younger kids taking to the skies, the market will adapt after the first 3 crashes and it will all work out. However, you brought up the point i was worried about, because when SWA's "Fuel Hedging" deal times out, SWA will be at a level playing field with all the other currier's, and all of us pilots will have the self security of our jobs snatched from under us. Its apparent to me at least, that the security of all our jobs are obscured by a dark cloud, that i hope, my son will be able to navigate through to find financial security. Just hope he can fill that void with something else if the airline industry cuts large amounts of workers off the payroll. Just want whats best for him.....
So, what do you guys think, he is 15 now, he is a sophomore, hes getting A's and B's, should i wait it out until i fully endorse his pilot dreams? or do you guys think it is safe enough right now for him to start looking to the future as being a pilot. I asked him last night that if he was offered a job as a C210 pilot, would he like to take it? He told me as long as he gets to fly and gets a steady income. Needless to say it was good to hear, given the unfortunate circumstances.
Oh well, ill stop yapping and let you guys answer. Im Back on shift tomorrow morning
Boy, i need to make my own account
Huggy Bear, YES!!! that was my point. I am not worried about safety, because even though we see younger and younger kids taking to the skies, the market will adapt after the first 3 crashes and it will all work out. However, you brought up the point i was worried about, because when SWA's "Fuel Hedging" deal times out, SWA will be at a level playing field with all the other currier's, and all of us pilots will have the self security of our jobs snatched from under us. Its apparent to me at least, that the security of all our jobs are obscured by a dark cloud, that i hope, my son will be able to navigate through to find financial security. Just hope he can fill that void with something else if the airline industry cuts large amounts of workers off the payroll. Just want whats best for him.....
So, what do you guys think, he is 15 now, he is a sophomore, hes getting A's and B's, should i wait it out until i fully endorse his pilot dreams? or do you guys think it is safe enough right now for him to start looking to the future as being a pilot. I asked him last night that if he was offered a job as a C210 pilot, would he like to take it? He told me as long as he gets to fly and gets a steady income. Needless to say it was good to hear, given the unfortunate circumstances.
Oh well, ill stop yapping and let you guys answer. Im Back on shift tomorrow morning
Boy, i need to make my own account
10-07-2007, 10:22 AM
#56
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: A-320
Posts: 6,929
A low time CA can certainly find himself in trouble if he gets in a compounded situation (WX+MEL+Emergency+high density hub) and little or no past experience to draw from. In the past we watched our peers get wiped out; military, night freight, bush, ag, 135, and yes even instructing. We learned from our peers getting killed. Then we finally made it to the airlines and got to acclimatize as a FE before flying as FO and finally CA. Today several "seasoning" steps are skipped.
One might point out "Hey there have always been peaks and lows in the pilot pipeline resulting in a corresponding level of experience"
What no one is addressing is the fact that the rewards of the career are at an all time low and by any reasonable projection, going to get worse not better; pilot shortage or no pilot shortage. There are many other careers where "shortages" are profoundly more acute (nursing) yet those holding the money refuse to solve the problem with money.
That being the case top grads that would have opted for a flying career will end up doing something else.
Now the synergy of the mix can be realized. The C- student with 3 busted check rides is now a RJ CA. His parents are so proud because they thought little Bobby would never amount to anything; had trouble in school, a few run ins with the juvenile justice system, and now, well just look at him.
Fast fwd……………….
CNN news reporters will find his wife and family telling the world what a great pilot he was and the crash must be the government’s fault, as the smoldering wreckage burns on live TV.
One might point out "Hey there have always been peaks and lows in the pilot pipeline resulting in a corresponding level of experience"
What no one is addressing is the fact that the rewards of the career are at an all time low and by any reasonable projection, going to get worse not better; pilot shortage or no pilot shortage. There are many other careers where "shortages" are profoundly more acute (nursing) yet those holding the money refuse to solve the problem with money.
That being the case top grads that would have opted for a flying career will end up doing something else.
Now the synergy of the mix can be realized. The C- student with 3 busted check rides is now a RJ CA. His parents are so proud because they thought little Bobby would never amount to anything; had trouble in school, a few run ins with the juvenile justice system, and now, well just look at him.
Fast fwd……………….
CNN news reporters will find his wife and family telling the world what a great pilot he was and the crash must be the government’s fault, as the smoldering wreckage burns on live TV.
10-07-2007, 10:50 AM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: 737 CA MIA
Posts: 1,042
Looking at my college transcripts. I got a B in Beginning Golf.
C College Algebra
C Intermediate Algebra
C Calculus
A Intro to Poetry
B Environ Science
A Fresh Comp
and a D in Anthropology. I have no memory of what happened there.
I was a regional FO for 6 months. You can get a lot of experience in 6 months at a regional.
If someone has never failed, how do they know how to get back up?
I'll fly with Saabarooskie anytime if he chooses to Flow through or Hire on.
C College Algebra
C Intermediate Algebra
C Calculus
A Intro to Poetry
B Environ Science
A Fresh Comp
and a D in Anthropology. I have no memory of what happened there.
I was a regional FO for 6 months. You can get a lot of experience in 6 months at a regional.
If someone has never failed, how do they know how to get back up?
I'll fly with Saabarooskie anytime if he chooses to Flow through or Hire on.
