Is there a safe future for Pilots? My Son's Question
10-06-2007, 08:59 PM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 193
A low time CA can certainly find himself in trouble if he gets in a compounded situation (WX+MEL+Emergency+high density hub) and little or no past experience to draw from. In the past we watched our peers get wiped out; military, night freight, bush, ag, 135, and yes even instructing. We learned from our peers getting killed. Then we finally made it to the airlines and got to acclimatize as a FE before flying as FO and finally CA. Today several "seasoning" steps are skipped.
One might point out "Hey there have always been peaks and lows in the pilot pipeline resulting in a corresponding level of experience"
What no one is addressing is the fact that the rewards of the career are at an all time low and by any reasonable projection, going to get worse not better; pilot shortage or no pilot shortage. There are many other careers where "shortages" are profoundly more acute (nursing) yet those holding the money refuse to solve the problem with money.
That being the case top grads that would have opted for a flying career will end up doing something else.
Now the synergy of the mix can be realized. The C- student with 3 busted check rides is now a RJ CA. His parents are so proud because they thought little Bobby would never amount to anything; had trouble in school, a few run ins with the juvenile justice system, and now, well just look at him.
Fast fwd……………….
CNN news reporters will find his wife and family telling the world what a great pilot he was and the crash must be the government’s fault, as the smoldering wreckage burns on live TV.
One might point out "Hey there have always been peaks and lows in the pilot pipeline resulting in a corresponding level of experience"
What no one is addressing is the fact that the rewards of the career are at an all time low and by any reasonable projection, going to get worse not better; pilot shortage or no pilot shortage. There are many other careers where "shortages" are profoundly more acute (nursing) yet those holding the money refuse to solve the problem with money.
That being the case top grads that would have opted for a flying career will end up doing something else.
Now the synergy of the mix can be realized. The C- student with 3 busted check rides is now a RJ CA. His parents are so proud because they thought little Bobby would never amount to anything; had trouble in school, a few run ins with the juvenile justice system, and now, well just look at him.
Fast fwd……………….
CNN news reporters will find his wife and family telling the world what a great pilot he was and the crash must be the government’s fault, as the smoldering wreckage burns on live TV.
10-07-2007, 12:51 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: B777 FO
Posts: 416
10-07-2007, 01:24 AM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: B-737NG preferably in first class with a glass of champagne and caviar
Posts: 6,009
Fist of all, I can't think of a better way to have fun and collect a pay check at the same time.
As I have told my students who have become professional pilots... "Make sure you get a college degree in a field other than aviation." One never know what the future may bring some 10 or 15 years into one's career. One may wake up one morning and say "I've had enough". The 6 month medical may not turn out as hoped. Line or Simulator check may not work as planned. The company may go bust.
I earned my first paycheck as a pilot in 1975, and have been employed with various carriers without a gap to this date. However, I have always kept the flying in its proper prospective with the above in mind. I owned a business from 1976 until I sold it a few years ago after my personal retirement account was fully funded. Before I collected my first pay check as an aviator, I made a vow never be in a position wherh I have to worry about my retirement or health benefits provided by an employer to which I have no control over. Also I set up education trusts for my kids too... to which their college and post graduate educations are provided for as well. My heart goes out those who lost their retirements at NWA, DAL, and UAL.
Good luck to your son, and may he share the same great experiences with you and your grandchildren as you have shared with your son.
As I have told my students who have become professional pilots... "Make sure you get a college degree in a field other than aviation." One never know what the future may bring some 10 or 15 years into one's career. One may wake up one morning and say "I've had enough". The 6 month medical may not turn out as hoped. Line or Simulator check may not work as planned. The company may go bust.
I earned my first paycheck as a pilot in 1975, and have been employed with various carriers without a gap to this date. However, I have always kept the flying in its proper prospective with the above in mind. I owned a business from 1976 until I sold it a few years ago after my personal retirement account was fully funded. Before I collected my first pay check as an aviator, I made a vow never be in a position wherh I have to worry about my retirement or health benefits provided by an employer to which I have no control over. Also I set up education trusts for my kids too... to which their college and post graduate educations are provided for as well. My heart goes out those who lost their retirements at NWA, DAL, and UAL.
Good luck to your son, and may he share the same great experiences with you and your grandchildren as you have shared with your son.
10-07-2007, 04:08 AM
#45
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,391
For someone your son's age, I would ponder two concerns in addition to the usual economic unknowns....
1) Petroleum Supplies. We will start to gradually run out in the next 10-100 years (depending on who you ask). This will be marked by a gradual and inexorable climb in oil prices. If suitable alternative fuels for our EXISTING airliners are not found, there will be a profound negative impact on the airline industry...the cost of suddenly scrapping all of our kerosene burners and building all-new airplanes would be catastrophic. So the unkowns are how long will the oil last, and what alternatives may be developed. A rapid rise in prices combined with no kerosene alternative would be a diasaster.
2) Automation. For a variety of factual technical reasons, I think automated airliners are at least 100 years away. However...if automation progresses rapidly we might see single pilot airliners (especially cargo) within your son's working lifetime, and possibly full-auto cargo planes. This would obviously slow his career progression, but I suspect that he would be old enough to miss the worst of it.
Like everyone else said, steer him to non-aviation degrees and encourage outside business interests just in case.
1) Petroleum Supplies. We will start to gradually run out in the next 10-100 years (depending on who you ask). This will be marked by a gradual and inexorable climb in oil prices. If suitable alternative fuels for our EXISTING airliners are not found, there will be a profound negative impact on the airline industry...the cost of suddenly scrapping all of our kerosene burners and building all-new airplanes would be catastrophic. So the unkowns are how long will the oil last, and what alternatives may be developed. A rapid rise in prices combined with no kerosene alternative would be a diasaster.
2) Automation. For a variety of factual technical reasons, I think automated airliners are at least 100 years away. However...if automation progresses rapidly we might see single pilot airliners (especially cargo) within your son's working lifetime, and possibly full-auto cargo planes. This would obviously slow his career progression, but I suspect that he would be old enough to miss the worst of it.
Like everyone else said, steer him to non-aviation degrees and encourage outside business interests just in case.
10-07-2007, 05:56 AM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 116
My brother works for NASA. You would be incredibly surprised how much HUMAN involvement it takes to plan/change/adapt trajectories of space probes. Also, automated phone operators are the most frustrating, incompetent, and error-prone pieces of software. I would LOVE if a company provided a human-being!
Bottom line is that humans write automation software, opening up room for error. As I said in a previous post, you're right. The technology is here. Just as the technology for robotic surgeons, driver less cars, etc. Will it happen many years from now? Maybe. Is having a backup career a good idea? Of course! I don't see this happening soon, however. Also, when it does, the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of operating these things from the ground will be wide open for pilots. When the AF stands up UAS wings, they're looking for pilots to operate or supervise the operation of them.
Bottom line is that humans write automation software, opening up room for error. As I said in a previous post, you're right. The technology is here. Just as the technology for robotic surgeons, driver less cars, etc. Will it happen many years from now? Maybe. Is having a backup career a good idea? Of course! I don't see this happening soon, however. Also, when it does, the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of operating these things from the ground will be wide open for pilots. When the AF stands up UAS wings, they're looking for pilots to operate or supervise the operation of them.
10-07-2007, 06:03 AM
#47
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Posts: 81
I wish I was a kid. Thank you for the compliment. Oh and thank you for your tone comment but no thank you. There are other forums you can visit if your feelings get hurt here.
10-07-2007, 07:41 AM
#48
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: 737 CA MIA
Posts: 1,042
Do u want my checking account # also?
