JohnnyCochran

Now that most "Legacy" carriers are hiring, or at least getting ready to hire what could be a massive amount of pilots over the next 5 years due to retirement, I pose a question or two.

1) How many regional captains will not be able to "afford" to move on to the majors due to the signifigant cut in pay seen in the first few years of the jump?

2) With many legacy carriers PIC turbine time is not a requirement. Does anyone forsee current regional F/O's that have more than the published requirements as being able to obtain positions at places such as US Airways, NWA, and the like.


I do understand that the majors leave some of their minimums lower so that the men and women who serve our county flying in the military are not at a disadvantage (due to less overall flying time/year vs airlines), but there are going to be plenty more spots open than what just these folks will fill. So this is more tailored towards the civilians. I pose these questions b/c I know of more than a few "mainline" pilots who were hired in 1999, having no PIC turbine time or the like. Just curious to see everyone's thoughts or comments.

aircraftdriver

Yeah, I think some guys won't go the the majors since it'll be a paycut for a few years at best. Especially when you consider how many people took out ARM loans on high valued homes etc... But on the other hand, guys will make it work when they present their wife with a cost benefit analysis...you betcha they will.

I forsee airlines going to a flowthru that works. You see XJT/CAL doing it now (though not a good flow), US Air talking about it, NWA and CPZ (XJ?? - though I'm not sure that is a done deal yet), and Eagle - though that one hasn't worked out..time will tell.

JoeyMeatballs

There is ABSOLUTELY NO "FLOWTHRU" BETWEEN CAL AND XJT.................

tone

As far as the massive amounts of hiring, it may not be so massive; Unfortunately age 65 passed yesterday

HercDriver130

its starting to pass....its along way from law yet.

And you just might be surprised how many DONT stay on..... I personally know several guys who took early retirements and wouldnt have stayed to 65 even if given the chance. Certainly probably even a majority of those who can will... but will they stay the whole 5 or just a few... only time will tell.

tone

That's true. And even if it SLOWS hiring a little, it won't stop it. Also, it will be tricky for the airlines as they try to feel out how many will stay so they can keep staffed and not hire too much! Wonder what the time frame is till we get to see if "Jorge W " will Veto the bill it goes with...

HercDriver130

While it is most certainly an eventuality..... it may... or may NOT happen this political year. And even when it does there are many variables to be considered as to just what the effect will be.

Cleared4Option

Another nail in the coffin from the Baby Boomers to the Gen-X'rs and Gen-Y'rs. Thanks a-lot.

First you artifically drive up the real estate market so I can't afford a house in a decent neighborhood.

Then, you drive up health care costs.

The Dollar is worthless, gas is expensive, groceries cost more than ever... "Don't you smart off to me you young whippersnapper, I was flying through the skies while you were in diapers" ...Right, my exact point, the same pay, 20 years ago flying the same equipment that is 20 years older. When everything costs more and the dollar is worth less and I can't even afford to save for my retirement, much less be able to pay for my rent without my wife working.

Someday, you are going to have to let me work (at a lower paying job with no scope and no work rules because you spent the last 25 years pulling up the rope) so I can pay for your retirement too.

Ok, end of Tired and PO'd RANT... it's too early in the morning.

Flames anyone?

Lifeisgood

Cleared4option,

I don't think the 65 is such a big deal:

1. Not that many will stay and especially for that long. I fly with a lot of old guys and 90% is planning on going at 60, the rest at 61-62. The new medical scares them to death, but most are exited about the LTD deal - bailing out as far as flying the line is concerned, thus forcing the airlines to hire.

2. Overall about demographics. It is a good thing to keep money in the pockets of the baby boomers. It turns out that the most money people spend is when they are between 46-52 years of age. Once people retire the spending goes down drastically (fact, even though most of us think the opposite)
Since our economy is spending based the whole thing sits OK with me. The economic slide will be more gradual and at the end less deep if the government finds more ways to keep the BB gen. working.

Just my 2 cents.

Bucking Bar

Cleared for Option:

You assume just because Age 65 is in process that things will change immediately. That might not be true.

Consider that the majority of pilots see this as holding them back. Management looks at age 65 as "expensive" pilots with lots of longevity and sick time sticking around. At some operators, the Pilot Working Agreements do not have provisions allowing age 60+ pilots. I think it will still take a while to get this implemented and there will probably be a few law suits before all the dust settles.

At FedEx, or UPS, this age 65 thing could be around a $2,000,000 difference in career earnings and retirement, per pilot. I have not even read their contracts, but some of my friends who fly at these carriers say that age 65 is not a done deal, even if the law passes.