BurritoBeach

It is somewhat common at United for pilots that live in one base to commute to another base for widebody flying.

170Till5

every airline has pilots that will live in 1 base and commute to a more junior base, especially for WB flying. DL has people living in ATL commuting to NYC for the better flying and seniority. UAL has junior pilots that will commute to SFO or EWR to hold a line vs being on reserve or for better trips.

FangsF15

Here is your 'mistake' (which is really too harsh a word, but since you used it): You are assuming a static seniority list. That's so implausible as to be useless, IMO. No one thinks any airline will stay the same for 10 years, much less 20. "United Next" may be wildly optimistic, but the size of the SL is equally important to your seniority, perhaps more so, than retirements. So again, I think adding about 500 pilots above retirements is a reasonable assumption. And that gets me to my figure of a DL NH rising to 50% in 11ish years. Roughly realistically... DL has repeatedly said they expect to hire at least 1000 pilots for the "indefinite future". Whatever that means... Of course, no-one really knows what the future holds, so all my math is only a projection, not a prediction.

That said, I went and looked at the actual list, and from this month through the end of 2043, DL will mandatorily retire almost exactly 8700 pilots, on a list of 17329. (We have a slight bump in the 2040's above the ~360 estimate earlier). I just think throwing around "20 years to 50%" is unrealistic, misleading, and unhelpful to anyone making a decision. But, just to compare, with a static list for apples-apples comparison to your stated AA NH rising to 50% in 12-13 years (roughly 2037), a DL NH will be ~63% on a static list. 13% different ain't much on the overall list.

Regardless, AA seniority rise will certainly be better. and if they really do hire 2200 annually in the next few years, perhaps meaningfully better. Each prospective hire must decide if that's a meaningful number for them. Personally, I think whoever hires you and 'compatible' driving domicile are the most critical factors, shortly followed by financial outlook. Perhaps if you are absolutely determined to be a WB Captain, projecting when you might hold it at each company might be a factor if it was the better-part-of-a-decade difference.

/Break, Break/

It sounds like AA and DL have similar % of pilots who "go early", which makes a lot more sense.

Sure, I just don't think we have too many doing a coast-to-coast commute for it. I myself used to commute ATL to JFK for WB FO. I would never, ever have considered ATL to LAX.

ImSoSuss

Newsflash, AA is not going to hire 2200 next year. Over the past 4 years AA has always come in under their stated projections, using one excuse or another. And if we don't become profitable, or at least get closer to UA or DL, expect those numbers to come way down.

CRJCapitan

I know there will be some growth, as all three have quite a few aircraft on order (on AA's side, they don't to retire any aircraft through the end of the decade), but I assumed a static list to simplify things. Though I don't expect any catastrophic curveballs in the near future, you never know when the next events occurs that kills causes furloughs/kills hiring for the next 10 years. I've flown with enough TWA guys to not take any of this for granted (and for the record, they are not bitter and are some of the coolest guys around).

I do think there is some value in preparing for worst-case scenarios when looking at the numbers.

CRJCapitan

Gotta get guys in the seat for those Max 10's in 2028

FangsF15

True enough.

Still, really good discussion for any prospective NH’s.

Sliceback

AA's number in the next 20 years (end of 2044) is 10,800 (hopefully not data entry mistakes). Current list is just over 17,000 (17,200??). But only 16,100 on property as the seniority list gets updated every July 1st (posted 3rd week of July +/-). So that's 2/3's retiring in the next 20 years. Get hired at 16,500 today? You'll be 5,500 in 20 years.

Sliceback

Which is why bodies behind you really matters to junior guys. The percentages matter. Rough estimates is no furloughs for less than 5% of the list. Bad furloughs are 15%. The outliers post 9/11 had 20-25% but the companies weaknesses before 9/11 were a factor in the percentage going that high.

Most furloughs don't occur if it's expected to be a year or less. The training bubble is too expensive.

Retirements are a BIG insurance factor. AA's retiring 1700 guys in the next 2 years? That's 10% of the pilot force. So a mini fulough (5% of pilot force) is almost off the table.

Yes, there have been outliers - furloughs >15% (previously mentioned), furloughs of 1, 2, 3%.

Get hired at AA last year? Already 1000 junior to you? Another 900 retirements in the next 12 months? That's 12% of the current pilot corps. Another year adds 5% additional retirements. That's close to furlough proof.

NorthwestAA

You're probably right they wont hire 2200 next year. Announced to training departments just recently the number is 2800 new hires for next year. Please resume all THE SKY IS FALLING chatter.