Margaritaville

Is it just me or has the time that applicants could pick and choose and target their preferred mainline carrier passed?

Now that we are far on the back side of the hiring wave I think we're back to being happy at the carrier that picks you. Any of the big 3 will offer you a great career. The differences are miniscule in the grand scheme of things.

MstrAv8r

I truly believe this to be the case. My advice would be to go to the first one that rings you up. The military pilot's wives Facebook group is littered with tears right now because hubbies are only getting interest from the regionals (if that). It seems as though many had visions of grandeur and let their wives get drunk on lofty legacy dreams. Things have tightened up, A LOT, with hiring across the industry.

CRJCapitan

I think United, and to a lesser extent AA, will keep things moving enough next year where it doesn't come to a complete standstill. However, we're definitely not going back to point where literally every major airline is hiring at the rate they were for a very long time.

Whoopsmybad

I’ve done it as a line holder with some early release late show trips and a 30 hour layover and flew 12 days as a line holder and off the rest of the month. YMMV.

navykid

Thanks for all the replies! They made it clearer to me how things would look at major airlines. As others have pointed out, of course, I'd pick the best major airline first, but I'm just thinking a bit ahead in case I get CJOs from, for example, Delta and AA.

One more question for long-haul pilots: Is it common for WB pilots to commute to a bigger hub that's more connected internationally? For example, let's say I live in SoCal and commute to ATL. Is that common?

One general question: When you get hired, can you directly get type-rated on a WB aircraft, or does it depend on the airline? Or will you always fly NBs as a new hire?

FangsF15

I'm not sure it's particularly common for DL pilots to commute from LA to ATL for a WB, especially since the 350 is in LAX, and it's fairly junior. Personally, I think a cross country commute just to do more Europe and JoBurg is bonkers. Sydney and Asia are great destinations, and it's a drive to work... No brainer there, IMO.

At DL, there was a very short period where WB were handed out to NH's. However, this was due to a confluence of unique factors which are no longer in place. I do not expect to ever see a international-only WB be available to a NH at DL ever again. Currently, it takes somehwere in the low 70's% to hold WB FO. At least for planning purposes, I don't expect that to change very much, even with lots of new WB deliveries over the next few years. However, it is possible to get what DL calls the 7ER category, which is the legacy 757 and 767-300 combined category. (at DL, the 767-400 is a separate category and flies essentially international only) There are plenty of NH's who get the 7ER, and with some flexibility, do a fair amount of 767 International flying. But definitely expect to do more domestic 757.

FangsF15

DL will hire 1000 this year, at least. We have already hired right at 700 as of 1 June.

If AA really does ramp up to 2200 for two years, that would be a meaninful seniority bump over DL. Admittedly, I'm sure I'm biased, so this is JMO, but I'm not sure it's enough to tip the scales for a 20-40 year career. But if nothing else, it would be a reasonable tie breaker if someone just can't decide.

But it's really hard to predict what 10 years will bring. Let's just assume steady hiring 1000/year indefinitly, which is not unreasonable at DL. With only mandatory retirements, if you were hired today at DL, you'd hit 50% in approximately 2035. So 11ish years? Maybe that's a little optimistic, but I don't think wildly so. But definitley nowhere near 20 years to 50%.

For a more apples to apples comparison, let's Assume your 12-13 year number is accurate for 50% at AA. In 12-13 years, you'd be about 10-12% worse at DL. The difference in what you can hold, and your overall QOL between 50% and 60% is almost nothing. At least it is at DL.

Good discussion.

But seriously

If you are counting over several years, early retirements have no real effect. It’s great if someone retires at 63 in 2026, but it’s one less person on the list for 2028.

FangsF15

But the trend keeps rolling forward. In 2028, someone else will retire early at 63. It has the net effect of accelerating the retirements above the 'mandatory' number. For example, a year ago I was projected to gain about 430 numbers, but I actually gained 475 numbers, or about 10% extra. 5 years ago, I was projected to gain 3600 numbers by today, but I have actually gained over 4200 numbers, nearly 17% extra. (Yes, I know the early out programs accelerated retirements, but 4 years later, nearly all of those who took the early-out would have hit 65 and/or retired by now anyway, so it doesn't really affect the number much).

I'm actually surprised to hear AA doesn't see many people go 'early'. At DL, at least 20% of retirements went some amount 'early'.

CRJCapitan

Definitely good discussion that I think is helpful for those on this forum.

I went back and tallied the retirement numbers you posted for Delta through 2044 (approximate numbers is some cases). I counted a total of 8,480 through 2044. Assuming a list of roughly 17,000 currently at Delta, that would put smack in the middle at 50.11% systemwide in January of 2045. If the list is closer to 16,000, then take off the 400 you had for 2044 and that gives you 8,080 (roughly) through 2043. Either way, I can't get away from the feeling I had previously that it would take about 20 years to hit 50% at DL (which was my original impression from the Widget Seniority site a while back).

If I made a mistake somewhere, please correct me.

They do retire early. It seems about 65-70 people who have a retirement date Jan 2025 and beyond have retired in the last nine months or so. I'm too lazy to come up with a percentage haha. Probably in the 10-15% range.