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Old 06-18-2024, 09:41 AM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
It's 100% a thing at Delta...with barely a tiny bit of seniority you can do 7 on 7 off or 14 off 17 on on reserve. And with more seniority you can do it with a line by bidding for 30 hour layovers.
And there are DL folks who will front-load one month and back-load the next for an entire month off. Not that hard to potentially do.
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Old 06-18-2024, 11:42 AM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by TallyTarget64
sounds like you want to work at Netjets not AA or DL.
This is not sound advice. Delta easily offers the schedule you want with just a little seniority. Can bid 7+ days of reserve in a row and then you're unusable for 30 hours of it anyway so effectively an extra day off (unless you get a 30hr layover). And then put all your days off together. Or any combination you like as long as your seniority can hold those days.
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Old 06-18-2024, 12:57 PM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by m3113n1a1
This is not sound advice. Delta easily offers the schedule you want with just a little seniority. Can bid 7+ days of reserve in a row and then you're unusable for 30 hours of it anyway so effectively an extra day off (unless you get a 30hr layover). And then put all your days off together. Or any combination you like as long as your seniority can hold those days.
it was my interpretation of the comment, not advice.
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Old 06-18-2024, 05:01 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by wankel7
Between Delta and AA which one would could you do 7 on 7 off or even 14 on 14 off?
Both employers probably. I was able to front load my entire reserve schedule at American my first month off OE in NYC. Both employers should have a PBS help desk to call and receive positive feedback on how to create a bid strategy for the schedule you desire.

The estimated pilot retirements at American for the next 5 years starting in 2025 average about 800 pilots per year, give or take. We have an estimated 450 pilots retiring by the end of 2024.


Last edited by RippinClapBombs; 06-18-2024 at 05:26 PM.
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Old 06-19-2024, 01:42 AM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by rippinclapbombs
both employers probably. I was able to front load my entire reserve schedule at american my first month off oe in nyc. Both employers should have a pbs help desk to call and receive positive feedback on how to create a bid strategy for the schedule you desire.

The estimated pilot retirements at american for the next 5 years starting in 2025 average about 800 pilots per year, give or take. We have an estimated 450 pilots retiring by the end of 2024.
2025-2030 age 65 retirements. We dont have many early retirements

843
843
753
686
658
585
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Old 06-19-2024, 04:42 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB
2025-2030 age 65 retirements. We dont have many early retirements

843
843
753
686
658
585
Thanks. Beat me too it.

Nearest 25 -

2031 - 625
2032 - 575
2033 - 550
2034 - 500
2035 - 500

2036 - 2043 - avg 360/yr
2044 - 400
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Old 06-19-2024, 05:16 AM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB
[AA] 2025-2030 age 65 retirements. We dont have many early retirements [DL in red]

843 541
843 521
753 470
686 482
658 514
585 556
Originally Posted by Sliceback
Thanks. Beat me too it.

Nearest 25 -

2031 - 625 497
2032 - 575 477
2033 - 550 398
2034 - 500 390
2035 - 500 354

2036 - 2043 - avg 360/yr DL very similar
2044 - 400
Added Delta's Retirements in Red for side-by-side comparison sake. At DL, we see acutal retirements for age 65 are at most 80% of actual retirements, and that is consistent over the last decade. So add another ~20% for those retiring early.

I see a lot of people tout that AA's seniority progression will dramatically outpace DL's in the coming years. While there is some truth to that based on mandatory retirements, AA will have to hire meaninfully above DL's projected 1000/year for that to actually bear out. I don't track what AA's hiring projections are, so someone please weigh in with those.
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Old 06-19-2024, 06:33 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
Added Delta's Retirements in Red for side-by-side comparison sake. At DL, we see acutal retirements for age 65 are at most 80% of actual retirements, and that is consistent over the last decade. So add another ~20% for those retiring early.

I see a lot of people tout that AA's seniority progression will dramatically outpace DL's in the coming years. While there is some truth to that based on mandatory retirements, AA will have to hire meaninfully above DL's projected 1000/year for that to actually bear out. I don't track what AA's hiring projections are, so someone please weigh in with those.
AA hiring recently, and for this year, is <1000/yr.

Haven't tracked the numbers exactly recently but I think AA's recent hiring totals have exceeded Delta's while Delta had more in the 'teens. Recall/memory is AA's totals will exceed DL's this year.

No one in their right mind will choose Airline X over Airline Y because they're retiring 100-150 more a year right now. It takes some work but if you're willing to go to any base for the best seniority the actual retirement numbers matter. Otherwise go to whoever chooses you. If several hire you go the airline that fits your desired home locatoins best. If 2 or 3 airlines hire you, and there's a tie on home choices (like ORD for UA/AA), or NYC, or CLT/ATL, DFW/HOU, now's the time to figure out if there's a significant difference.
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Old 06-19-2024, 06:39 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
Added Delta's Retirements in Red for side-by-side comparison sake. At DL, we see acutal retirements for age 65 are at most 80% of actual retirements, and that is consistent over the last decade. So add another ~20% for those retiring early.

I see a lot of people tout that AA's seniority progression will dramatically outpace DL's in the coming years. While there is some truth to that based on mandatory retirements, AA will have to hire meaninfully above DL's projected 1000/year for that to actually bear out. I don't track what AA's hiring projections are, so someone please weigh in with those.
Thanks for the DL data. Looks like 1700 (?) more retirements at AA in the next 11 years.

With access to any carrier's seniority list a newhire can figure out their seniority advancement, by year, over their career. DL, and especially UA, has more w/b's than AA. So seniority #500 at AA might have the same final bidding power that #700 has at DL and #900 has at UA. (rough WAGS on the relative seniority differences). If you get offers from multiple carriers *AND* are willing to live, or commute, to various domiciles now you can burn some brain power figuring out if there's an expected material difference between airline A vs airline B.
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Old 06-19-2024, 06:51 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
Added Delta's Retirements in Red for side-by-side comparison sake. At DL, we see acutal retirements for age 65 are at most 80% of actual retirements, and that is consistent over the last decade. So add another ~20% for those retiring early.

I see a lot of people tout that AA's seniority progression will dramatically outpace DL's in the coming years. While there is some truth to that based on mandatory retirements, AA will have to hire meaninfully above DL's projected 1000/year for that to actually bear out. I don't track what AA's hiring projections are, so someone please weigh in with those.
AA is projecting 1200 this year and then back to 2200 for at least 2025 and 2026.

With no growth, it looks like it would take about 12-13 years for someone hired at AA today to reach about 50% seniority. How does that compare to DL? I think I remember Widget Seniority was saying that was 20+ years over a year ago.
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