The pilot shortage is over:

Reply Subscribe

Page 6 of 59

« First

Last »

Thread Tools

Search this Thread

03-08-2024, 11:49 AM

#51

tallpilot

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Dec 2011

Position: A320 FO

Posts: 982

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunkin

AA is still planning on 1800+ new hires a year for many more years out IF the 321XLR and Max8s show up on time but nobody hired now will see the upward seniority movement like 2021/early 22 hires. Some of those pilots never sat reserve as FOs and now can already hold a line as LGA737 captains if they so choose.

Sounds like AA is going down to 1300. Still historically large numbers but trending down from peak.

03-09-2024, 05:21 AM

#52

Varks

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Aug 2016

Posts: 287

AA has hired 4,600 since 9/21.

03-09-2024, 09:35 AM

#53

TransWorld

Gets Everyday Off

Joined APC: Aug 2016

Position: Fully Retired

Posts: 7,000

Quote:

Originally Posted by tallpilot

Sounds like AA is going down to 1300. Still historically large numbers but trending down from peak.

PreCovid, the all time record was 939.

03-09-2024, 09:49 AM

#54

ErnieG

Line Holder

Joined APC: May 2023

Position: B737

Posts: 36

1,300 is still very high... this hiring frenzy couldn't be sustainable for a very long time. The days of getting a phone call the same week of putting in your app are over. At least for now!

03-09-2024, 11:04 AM

#55

TransWorld

Gets Everyday Off

Joined APC: Aug 2016

Position: Fully Retired

Posts: 7,000

Quote:

Originally Posted by ErnieG

1,300 is still very high... this hiring frenzy couldn't be sustainable for a very long time. The days of getting a phone call the same week of putting in your app are over. At least for now!

I keep hearing the world is going to end. Been hearing that since the first time I stepped into a simulator about 1970.

03-09-2024, 11:33 AM

#56

ErnieG

Line Holder

Joined APC: May 2023

Position: B737

Posts: 36

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransWorld

I keep hearing the world is going to end. Been hearing that since the first time I stepped into a simulator about 1970.

Oh absolutely, and people are about to stop flying as well, just drive instead. Plus all the green eco laws and restrictions, aviation is coming to an end!

03-09-2024, 02:00 PM

#57

highfarfast

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Nov 2016

Posts: 2,490

Quote:

Originally Posted by ErnieG

Oh absolutely, and people are about to stop flying as well, just drive instead. Plus all the green eco laws and restrictions, aviation is coming to an end!

You forgot age 67, AI, single pilot/no pilot ops, the next COVID, the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and the upcoming war in Tawaine.

There's probably still a few doom and gloom scenarios that I'm not thinking of.

03-09-2024, 03:02 PM

#58

tallpilot

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Dec 2011

Position: A320 FO

Posts: 982

Quote:

Originally Posted by TransWorld

I keep hearing the world is going to end. Been hearing that since the first time I stepped into a simulator about 1970.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that the world is ending. I think it's obvious though that if the Big 4 reduce hiring from the last 2-3 years' unprecedented numbers that standards will rise and the time from application to indoc may increase.

The regional FO -> LCC FO -> Legacy pipeline is in serious jeopardy. PIC time will matter again.

Last edited by tallpilot; 03-09-2024 at 03:29 PM.

03-09-2024, 03:38 PM

#59

Excargodog

Perennial Reserve

Joined APC: Jan 2018

Posts: 12,115

Quote:

Originally Posted by highfarfast

Extinction event asteroid strike. Just ask the dinosaurs...

03-09-2024, 03:41 PM

#60

Sliceback

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Dec 2007

Position: Window seat

Posts: 5,482

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReluctantEskimo

I disagree. The hiring wave postponed. Nothing on paper has changed. The retirements are still happening for the next 5 years, and the scheduled deliveries are still plentiful. It is the delivery timetable that is the source of this slow down.

Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.

The "intensity" of the hiring was unsustainable. At AA it was about 14% YOY increase in hiring. Subtract 6% for retirements and the net increase was about 8%? When they're hoping to sustain 2-3% annual growth? No company will continue hiring their most expensive workers at a rate that's maybe 5% more than their needs. If 5 years they'd have a surplus of 25% manning.