The pilot shortage is over:
03-07-2024, 12:20 PM
#41
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
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I agree with your time frame estimate/guess. Vague memory that it changed around, or during, the BK process.
03-07-2024, 12:49 PM
#42
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Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 2,147
No problem. Thanks for that acknowledgment. It’s tough to remember who had what when as there’s been multiple agreements and bankruptcies over the past two decades. I’ve worked on a few of those agreements over the years so I’m somewhat familiar but make mistakes remembering sometimes. I’m done now so let the next generation who’s unhappy about whatever work rules jump in. Thier going to live under those for the next few decades.
03-07-2024, 08:33 PM
#43
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
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It’s obvious the hiring wave is over. Most of us probably won’t see a hiring wave like that for the rest of our careers. It was a great lift for a lot of us.
The best part is most of us all got our contracts locked in while times were still good. Alaska, Jetblue, Delta, United, American, and Southwest all ended up with very similar deals thus making the new industry standard much higher.
The best part is most of us all got our contracts locked in while times were still good. Alaska, Jetblue, Delta, United, American, and Southwest all ended up with very similar deals thus making the new industry standard much higher.
03-07-2024, 11:06 PM
#44
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Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 702
It’s obvious the hiring wave is over. Most of us probably won’t see a hiring wave like that for the rest of our careers. It was a great lift for a lot of us.
The best part is most of us all got our contracts locked in while times were still good. Alaska, Jetblue, Delta, United, American, and Southwest all ended up with very similar deals thus making the new industry standard much higher.
The best part is most of us all got our contracts locked in while times were still good. Alaska, Jetblue, Delta, United, American, and Southwest all ended up with very similar deals thus making the new industry standard much higher.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
03-08-2024, 03:35 AM
#45
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I disagree. The hiring wave postponed. Nothing on paper has changed. The retirements are still happening for the next 5 years, and the scheduled deliveries are still plentiful. It is the delivery timetable that is the source of this slow down.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
03-08-2024, 03:43 AM
#46
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Joined APC: Sep 2011
Posts: 4,815
I disagree. The hiring wave postponed. Nothing on paper has changed. The retirements are still happening for the next 5 years, and the scheduled deliveries are still plentiful. It is the delivery timetable that is the source of this slow down.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
. Getting hired today vs. 2.5 years ago makes for an entirely different career. It shaved a decade or more off seniority progression if you got hired in 2021. Granted AA has higher retirements in the next few years than the rest, but that won't compete with what we have already seen. Covid early outs, otherwise historical retirements, and post-covid hiring made for the greatest hiring wave of anyone's carrer. It's over al DL and UA at least, and maybe to a lesser degree at AA.
03-08-2024, 05:29 AM
#47
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Joined APC: Mar 2021
Posts: 1,739
I disagree. The hiring wave postponed. Nothing on paper has changed. The retirements are still happening for the next 5 years, and the scheduled deliveries are still plentiful. It is the delivery timetable that is the source of this slow down.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
Airbus is deliveries are beyond capacity. And Boeing is reduced indefinitely until they figure out their issues. When/if production gets resolved, hiring will recommence. Maybe with the same intensity as 2022-23.
03-08-2024, 08:24 AM
#48
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Joined APC: Oct 2021
Posts: 324
You will never see the hiring wave you saw from late 2021 through early 2023 again. That is pretty much fact. You had the combination of multiple "Major" airlines scrambling for pilots because they cut way too many during COVID combined with historical high in retirements. The problem was that people got used to that and think that is what a hiring wave looks like. It does not look like that at all, it was more like a hiring tsunami. So no, nothing postponed about it. It was unprecedented and we'll never see it again. We're back to more normal periods of hiring waves that will come and go.
03-08-2024, 08:32 AM
#49
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Posts: 530
AA is still planning on 1800+ new hires a year for many more years out IF the 321XLR and Max8s show up on time but nobody hired now will see the upward seniority movement like 2021/early 22 hires. Some of those pilots never sat reserve as FOs and now can already hold a line as LGA737 captains if they so choose.
03-08-2024, 10:25 AM
#50
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For staffing and regarding retirements the unwritten rule is to count for every one retirement there is one out on medical. That may not be a single person but could be multiple over the year but accounting for a vacancy in one seat. Therefore the math accounts two to replace.
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