kevbo

So they're troubled by having only a multi year surplus of qualified applicants on hand?

Rama

Between the big three and Alaska, they will hire about 2500 this year. Those 500 have more than likely applied at all three carriers, so half the pool will be gone by 2017.

beech1980

American is looking at hiring close to 10,000 pilots in the next 10-12 years. Then they need to backfill the regionals. That one airline alone will drain the pool. Not sure how many people are going to college or flight school to become airline pilots but I would bet it's not enough to cover the demand the industry will have in the next 10-15 years.
We cannot allow them to raise the retirement age to 67. I personally don't even want to do this until 65. That was a reason I went to college for this. Retire at 60 with a pension... well that is now gone but I've set my retirement up to hopefully leave at 60 if I wish.
I also believe that in the next 5-8 years we will see most of the LCC's and ULCC's merge. We will have 3-4 legacies, and 3-4 discount carriers. Just my 2 cents.

Xtreme87

All these degree nazis don't seem to realize, that the pool will be depleted within the next few years if not sooner without enough people to refill it. ANYBODY looking to go anywhere will have that chance as long as you have a half decent resume and a clean record. Sure you can probably get a jump on seniority with a degree, not gonna argue with that.

There was a time when most regionals required a degree, now they don't. There was a time when most LCC's required a degree, now they mostly don't. Legacies will be next.

Celeste

At WIA United said they have 12k apps on file. It seems more people are putting in apps as hiring picks up. Not to mention, the military pumps out enough to satisfy about 50% of the hiring. There's ~20k regional pilots, plus 135/corporate, acme and ulcc pilots. Not everyone is looking to go to a legacy, but most are.

Then both United and Delta are cutting back on their hiring for this year. Last year, both carriers projected that they would hire 1000-1200 in 2017. United has hired air 600 and is suppisedly done for the year, and Delta is only hiring 700 total now. At that rate it's going to take a while for them to work through the pool of candidates....

Then again United has that bs program to start hiring 1500 hour CFIs from Luffy's school. So I guess anything is possible. It's not like there's 20,000 regional pilots with 1000s of hours of experience flying pax into the same airports, that would love the opportunity to fly for United.

TransWorld

All due respect, Your number of 12,000 UN apps seems to conflict with others on various threads. A few years ago, before hiring started to pick up, there were 10,000 (some reported 11,000) apps with the majors. These were unique pilots, most had apps in several places.

Recent information is being reported AA is down to just under 5,000 and SW is at 3,000. I wonder if the 12,000 with UN is old data. It would be hard to believe UN now has a few more when AA and SW have a lot less.

Current hiring numbers for the 6 majors (AA, UN, DL, SW, UPS, and FedEx) is forecast at 3,500 for this year. As retirements ramp up in the next few years this is projected to increase to 6,000 a year and hold steady for a decade (or more).

I have heard various percentages coming from the military. So, I dug into it and found about 1,000 military come available each year. If you subtract that from the 6,000; there will need to be 5,000 civilians hired per year in the near future. That will be a sustained number for quite a while.

As you said, there are about 20,000 regionals. If the oft quoted lifers is 10%, there are about 18,000 that want to flow. Add to that 135/corporate, maybe a few thousand (?) more. Remember those will need to have newbies to backfill from the same pool as the regionals newbies hiring pool.

As hiring ramps up, the regionals/135/corporate will need to double their hiring, from about 2,500 a year to 5,000 a year. If they are not able to do that, their pool will begin to be sucked dry.

There are pilots who got out after 9/11 and other personal decisions that are coming back in. There is a chance retirement will go to 67. These just defer for a couple or three years the hiring crunch.

If you count on the LCC being sucked dry and not replaced, there are about 7,000 of them (Allegiant, JetBlue, Fronter, Spirit, and Sun Country). While some shrinkage and consolidation may occur, most likely they will bring their pay in line with the majors. At that point, there is much less incentive for pilots to jump ship.

Bottom line, my crystal ball says by sometime in the mid 2020s, maybe sooner, the regionals will be pushed off the edge of the cliff and will be much different and smaller than they are today.

WHACKMASTER

I REALLY do not want age 67 to pass but wouldn't most of you agree that between medicaling out after age 65 and simply not wanting to fly to age 67/past 65, about 50% of those that hit 65 will actually continue to 67?

It's awful to think of 67 passing but I don't think it'll be as big of an issue as many of us fear it will be.

kevbo

What happens when being a pro pilot pays enough up front to be viable for poor kids to pursue? Will that just fill the void or will it kill the career as an upper middle class profession? I know that the maintenance side is having severe brain drain even with all the majors dangling six figure carrots. They are having to recruit bag smashers and box throwers. Anyone that can get an associates is choosing something else.

cubguy

Mr. "Upper Middle Class Professional"
Explain to me what's wrong with "poor kids" pursuing a career as an airline pilot. I've flown with several. They appreciate their career and wanted it bad enough to work their butts off for it. I have observed them to be much more professional than the condescending a$$ holes who refer to their co workers as "bag smashers" and "box throwers".
In my 39 years I've seen many pilots riding high horses take some pretty bad falls...
CG

sailingfun

Delta has stated that their pool of tier 1 applicants is replenishing itself as fast as they hire from it. You omit that new pilots will enter all the pools.