Riddler

Are there any disadvantages of getting hired towards the tail end of a "hiring spree?" Prior to 9-11, the popular choice seemed to be United or Delta. 20 years ago it seemed that a job at Eastern meant that you had the world by the ballz. Today SWA seems to be a popular choice and they've been hiring 300-600 per year for the past several years. Getting hired now means that the 1,500 or so people who got hired over the past 5 years will always hold a higher line.

Are there any advantages to looking at a "recovering" airline for a job (United, American when they start hiring)? Right now, UAL is recalling pilots and not too many seem to be jumping back. Does this equate to an opportunity to advance in seniority quicker at UAL or American? It seems that there might be a 5-10 year "void" to fill, which might equate to some interesting longer-term possibilities, if you can stomach the next 5 years or so.

Thanks for your inputs!
Riddler

dojetdriver

I know it's the smart aleck/cliche/cynical answer. But you will not know until 60, or 65 as the case may be.

Gunter

You got a real master's thesis on your hands.

History is good to consider for some things. Knowing there is a hiring boom followed by the inevitable correction is important. But you will make your money and make better predictions by reviewing current trends and a little guessing on what the future holds. It will be hazy, but you have to make a call. After you do successfully interview or get hired don't stick your head in the sand thinking inaction is better than making a leap toward a different opportunity. Stay focused and make the analysis. The airline industry is littered with too many people who spent too long making a decision at a troubled carrier thinking the value of being senior to a few more folks is what is important. There is a value to being senior and the higher pay/furlough protection it brings, but there is a limit.

There are a couple of mindsets you need to cultivate if you want to make sure you retire at a place you have spent at least 10 years or so at.

1. If, after your analysis, you saw a durable advantage in being at airline Y (Cargo or Pax) and get hired at airline X first, you need to keep pursuing airline Y even though you will be sick to your stomach leaving airline X for them. Ask many, many UAL, AA or Delta guys how happy they are after deciding not to go to FedEx/UPS when they got hired elsewhere either before or after a FedEx/UPS interview. Or how they shoulda kept pursuing FedEx or UPS. On second thought, they may not even be honest with themselves about that due to the pain it brings thinking about it.

2. Every once in awhile, reevaluate your company vs. others and reevaluate industry trends. Especially with the threat or reality of furlough. Be prepared to make the jump. I know plenty of SWA guys happy AA furloughed them. Some in the '90s and then some after '01. They never went back to AA. Some were furloughed from AA, went to SWA then jumped back to AA. They aren't so happy. I don't even know what the 2-5 year FedEx folks were thinking when they left for AA and Delta in the 90's (even in 2000 and 2001!) Don't be a dear in the headlights if you do get furloughed. Do something about it. Don't just sit and wait for a recall.

The UAL guys and gals who jumped to start JetBlue are an interesting study too. First it looked like a dumb move. Then it looked brilliant when UAL almost died. Right now you can argue they could have stayed at UAL and been a little more secure going forward. We'll see how this pans out.


Don't have any answers for you except stay in the Reserves just in case. It will make any job transition or multiple transitions easier.

Gunter

Look at these companies like a stock investor.

Look at pay, but the highest paying is not the necessarily the best longterm option.

What do you think might happen to the company in the future?


Ignore time to Captain statements. They look in the rearview mirror. Look at retirements and likely airplane growth. Then make your own guess.

You are going to have to do a lot of research on schedules. Lots of variety.

Living where you are domiciled is big unless you are cargo dude or live in your reserve city. Last on the list, but important. For example: For best quality of life--You may want to move if your analysis leads you to UPS. Find a reserve job you can commute to from Louisville or Anchorage.

NoWake200

It is anyones guess. I recommend if you are serious about getting into the industry then get a job but keep looking. Do not pass up a job (reasonable job that is). The longer your out of the flight deck the harder it is to get back in. With all my experience I decided to take some time off and try my hand at my own business, that did not go so well so now I am trying to get back in. Without currency they treat you like you have never flown at all. I have another furloughed friend who is on his second layoff, refused to work for $17,000 a year, now is having a hard time getting interviews because he has not flown for over a year.

About UPS/FedEx, I compare getting a job with them like getting drafted in the NFL/NHL/NBA/MLB. When you look at ALL the pilots out there with carbon copy resumes you really win the lottery when getting hired with them. Knowing someone helps then getting past the interview is another issue.

I would not even consider American Airlines ANY time soon. They have to call back almost all of TWA first before they even think about hiring. This is going to take several years.

NoWake200

Gunter, I agree 100% with you!

Razor

So what do you think fastest time to Captain will be for a guy hired today at UPS, FDX and SWA? Anyone have a guess?

k3mbbc

Razor...

Look at the airline section in this website. Each airline shows most junior highered Capt...which equates to how long it will take to upgrade.

JetJocF14

Current upgrade to 727 Captain here at Fedex is around the 5 to 6 year mark. To get to the wide body is about 9 to 10 but its been awhile since i tracked those numbers down..................

TriStar_drvr

No, not really. That equates to how long it took that pilot hired at that date to upgrade. When I was hired at my current airline, the most junior Captains had only been on the property for two years. It took me five years to get to the left seat and only another year to get bumped back to the right.

If an airline has plans to grow by X number of planes per year and has y number of pilots retiring over those years, then you can predict an approximate upgrade date.

However, aircraft orders can be cancelled, and the FAA may raise the mandatory retirement age. Then all bets are off as to when you may see an upgrade. My only advice is take the first one available. I did and got a free 737 type out of the deal. That recently came in very handy...