Originally Posted by BackintheLPA

I'm all for healthy optimism, but "faking happiness until you're happy" is the most asinine logic I've heard of in a long time. Most would refer to that as a self-delusional coping mechanism or full of hubris at best. It is dangerous at best to go through life choosing to ignore reality. Or you're a troll.

I hate to say it, but Skyhigh's perspective correlates with what I've seen in the past and what will continue to occur in the future. I'm an A/C in the Air Guard and a 5 year FO at a regional. All I've heard since I returned from UPT 5.5 years ago is how this "pilot shortage" is coming to fruition from numerous pilots from delta, fedex, ups, usairways, continental, etc. Since I'm essentially a guard bum this topic comes up constantly. For about 4 years I believed it without looking at the facts. The point where I started to question it was when I had 8 delta guys telling me that delta was going to hire 600-850 for 2011 and so far they have hired 0. I pondered how could 8 guys that work for delta could be soo wrong. So when the topic came up again I asked "what is going to cause this "shortage" that will result in unprecedented hiring?". In unison they all said retirements. I said " I respectfully disagree" and they looked at me like I was crazy. So they went on the delta website to look at the projected retirements. I pulled out the retirement projections that were posted on APC. Needless to say they were shocked to see that average retirements do not break 300/yr until 2016/2017. The discussion then proceeded into how lax scope brought about the RJ boom, the abundace of highly qualified pilots waiting for their chance, how lobbyist have halted HR 5900, how the RLA has destroyed labor's leverage, continued reduction in capacity, how corporations will continue to suppress any leverage labor has through automation/technology, cheap labor, lobbyist groups, and an inevitable disturbing macro-economic reality that awaits the western world in the near future. After looking at the facts they no longer felt confident in a "shortage" either.

Originally Posted by HotMamaPilot

^^^^^^^^^^
What he said.

And hoss, in regards to "beating some dude down", I hope that was said in jest.

Originally Posted by BackintheLPA

To me the real question is will the jobs in the future even be worth it? What is the break even point where people will stop showing up for the job? Based on the oversupply that exists now my guess is that we have a long way to go before we find the bottom.

That's the same thing I wonder about...There's a glut of RJ pilots and Military pilots that will jump at the first opportunity to work at legacy carriers with consessionary contracts. I've been on mil leave for 4 out of 5 years. 90% of the FOs that are in the military at my regional are on mil leave the majority of the time. It's just not worth working at a regional with the prospect of spending 6-7 years as an FO. I believe the new reality of 121 flying is to plan on spending at least 10 years at a regional with the real possibility of becoming a "lifer" if you haven't progessed by your early 40s.

If I hadn't stumbled in the door at my Air Guard unit I would have left this industry long ago. Unfortunately an airline gig one is one of the few compatable jobs with the current tempo we have. Most 9-5 employers aren't going to tolerate what it takes to participate regularly. I would rather deploy to a war zone or scrape pigeon sh!t off a hangar than get jerked around for 40K/year.

Originally Posted by HotMamaPilot

Infidelity aside, is it really fair to leave (abandon) ones family/spouse et al for two consecutive weeks each and every month? A few (more than a few) ANC crew have pondered this thought the last couple of years.

Originally Posted by USMCFLYR

Not a big fan of MMA or have ever participated in some sort of sparring in a combat sport?

USMCFLYR

Originally Posted by CE750

Many I know (especially traditionalists) would argue a woman leaving her minor aged and infant children to go fly 767's also constitutes abandonment.. how would you counter that point?

Hmp says:

I live at base.

Originally Posted by SkyHigh

BackintheLPA,

A good strategy might be to skip the whole pilot thing and stay in the military until you have your 20 then move to another government job like being a flying bureaucrat for FAA or sky cop for the border patrol. If you do that you would never have to try to live on what a pilot makes in the free market. All the while building on to your government retirement.

Skyhigh