SaintNick

especially if the vaccine is out and working (just not widespread yet) the cost of displacements would be huge for a hopeful short term (from may) problem.

The701Express

It's not time to panic quite yet. It's a good time to prepare, however, by building up the savings account. If you don't need it come May 1 then roll it over into a strike fund for the next round of negotiations in 2022.

The bad news here in the 8-k is that jetblue had a significant amount of passengers cancel their travel plans this quarter. That's not surprising considering the growth in covid-19 cases the last month or two. Discussions predicting a larger second wave come fall time have been happening since the spring, so the Q4 daily cash burn forecast was always tenuous.

The good news here is that a fair amount of demand returned prior to the current wave of covid case growth even as US covid activity outpaced much of the rest of the world. While the current travel demand isn't as durable as the company would like, it appears resilient. As long as people remain financially solvent and we have high rates of vaccine participation we will likely see a similar return of travel demand as community spread slows, eventually stops, and covid case numbers decrease. Given the high rate of effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, that confidence could spark an even greater rebound of demand.

There's still some uncertainty surrounding when the FDA will approve the Pfizer vaccine and how that affects its distribution, but it's likely to come before the end of December.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/30/...-and-for-whom/

However the vaccine is initially distributed, it sounds like anyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by sometime in May.
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​​​​​If that holds true, we'll be reaching herd immunity just in time for the busy summer season and people who have been mostly cooped up at home for the past year decide to travel again.

Plenty could go wrong between now and May first. A vaccine could have manufacturing issues, distribution problems, low participation rates, serious unforeseen side effects, or the more typical risks that are always present like natural disaster or geopolitical conflict, which could hurt a recovery.

Right now Jetblue is sitting on $2.8 billion in cash, can take another billion in CARES Act loans and management has stated they have other options to raise cash if required. So while there will likely be more debt to pay back, there's a high probability of a strong recovery on the horizon and jetblue has the liquidity to get to that point.

Blue Dude

I wonder how many of the travel cancellations were due to renewed lockdowns in the northeast, and not because of traveler anxiety. Our "partners in government" sure haven't been doing our industry any favors in the last year or so.

Softpayman

Which lockdowns? People are rightfully nervous...There are state quarantines which add to the problem and at this point I don’t think they accomplish much.

likeitis

I'd guess very few. Many of family and friends pre-covid traveled nearly monthly and none of them have traveled at all since March. For them it has zero to do with any travel restrictions. My parents are snowbirds and they aren't going to their winter home this year.

Ted Striker

I’ll second this. Although, I know my parents are ready to travel as soon as they can get vaccinated. Most of people I have spoken with have lots of vacation/sick time saved up due to all the working from home, and they are ready to travel again. I feel the pent up demand is definitely there, especially for Summer travel.

rvr1800

I agree about the efficacy of the quarantines. Especially the 10pm-5am stay at home “order” from Massachusetts. But regardless of whether people think they’re effective or not they are still hesitant to travel because of them. We have to fill out a form every day we drop off our kid at day care. It asks if we have traveled outside the state (besides Vermont and Hawaii). If we answer yes then it’s a 14 day quarantine or negative covid test required.

thefauxfox

Surprised they wouldn't drive.... that is unless of course they're in the Caribbean That would make things a little difficult...

AYLflyer

I'm curious how flight crews are answering those questions. Do you say yes and explain your situation?

I've been flying for work obviously and had a doc appointment a couple months back. They asked if I had been out of state and when I said yes she basically stopped and took a step back and said which state. When I listed a bunch of them and told her I travel for a living she seemed a bit unsure but then took my temp and let me in.

copy

Since covid is spiking everywhere, you should ask how your chances of getting Covid are higher by traveling out of state. Does Covid not spread inside state lines or something? Then point out the lower rates of covid by flight crew.