Flyby1206

Any word on when the next supp bid will happen?

31LatKE

The last pocket session mentioned, "sometime in November, within 8 weeks. Should include most of everything for 2021 flying (321LR/220)"

Flyby1206

That makes sense. CrewPlanning is busy with Vacation bidding til the end of Oct. I bet we see something after the regular monthly bidding in Nov.

copy

My prediction is 190CA seats (and to a lesser degree 190FO seats) will get obliterated on this next bid. With renewed emphasis on “1 for 1 with the A220,” that’s 8/60 of our 190 fleet being retired by end of year 2021. Those numbers alone call for ~130 associated 190 pilots to be transitioned by end of year, but I suspect they may go a little higher than that with 190 block hours being reduced overall. Despite the theory that 190s will be flying more as seat caps are lifted, we simply don’t need 905 E190 pilots, or even the same ratio with 8 fewer E190s.

If I were king, this is how I would change the numbers for end of year 2021, which is based on my prediction that the A220 will just be based in BOS next year, and the LR SQ base will be split between JFK and BOS:

JFK320CA: -30
JFK320FO: 0
JFK320SQCA: +30
JFK320SQFO: +60
JFK190CA: -60
JFK190FO: -40

BOS320CA: -30
BOS320FO: 0
BOS320SQCA: +30
BOS320SQFO: +60
BOS190CA: -100
BOS190FO: -70
BOS220CA: +60
BOS220FO: +70

LAX320CA: +10
LAX320FO: +10

Total CA: -90
Total FO: 90
Total: 0

There are 10 more retirements this year and 30 next…so if they wanted, they could shrink the numbers even more I suppose. Then if things look good put out another supplemental and create more vacancies.

That’s my “if I were king” plan/prediction. We will find out soon enough how accurate it is.

Think the last net 0 vacancy LGB->LAX bid was bad? Just wait for this one. I think in retrospect, the company should have done this bid and the LAX swap at the same time, because a lot of the training events triggered by the last one will be undone or otherwise changed on this one.

feltf4

I think we need to start with making it through the election before we are throwing around hope that Q1 of 2021 is going to be flowers and butterflies.

CaptCoolHand

crew planning... you mean both of them?

Flyby1206

They doubled in size?!?

CaptCoolHand

😆 exactly!

The701Express

Something to consider with regards to the timing of hiring restarting is the lag from when the process begins to when the pilot starts indoc and even completes IOE. The background check process in the past has been notoriously slow for applicants, taking months to complete. We could see a six to nine month lag between the hiring window opening until pilots are in training or flying the line. If hiring does restart in Q1 2021, that would likely be for staffing as late as the end of the year, which coincides with Robin's forecast for a return to 2019 capacity. Add in the classes that were sent home during training to prime the pump before then and I don't see it as overly optimistic that we could be hiring next year. That's of course with the giant caveat that the current demand trend continues.

On a related note, in his last couple of appearances on CNBC, Robin has been pretty coy when asked about daily cash burn, seeming to hesitate a bit before only referencing the guidance provided in the Q2 earnings call. That could very well just be Robin being Robin, but given all of the new route additions and talk about hopeful signs in future bookings, I'm really curious to hear an update on those numbers during the Q3 earnings call next month. If the new network changes are helping bring cash burn back to neutral, I think the odds of accelerating deliveries increases. There are just too many new routes that were announced in this latest batch like LAX-CHS and RIC-LAS that are textbook A220 routes that I'm sure the company doesn't want to waste committing a 320 to service the route for long.

Whichever airline gets back to neutral cash burn first will get a lot of love from Wall Street and in return will have quite a bit of leeway in their strategic decision making.

And since I'm here, I might as well make a prediction for OTF. I'm going to go with a push to get employees reinvested in the health and future of the company with a campaign to "Own The Franchise".

​​​​

hyperboy

He said November and/or December.