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Old 12-29-2023, 09:10 AM
  #591  
That/It/Thang
 
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Originally Posted by Andy
Depends on where the price goes after the ruling. Either a quick exit or if the price hasn't moved sufficiently, stay until my shares are bought by B6.

There's significant and growing short interest.
Short is at 16% which honestly doesn’t shock me at all. Since the trial has begun the market has priced this inconsistent with the upside/downside values post merger.

I’ll laugh when the short sellers get left holding the bag here soon enough.
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Old 12-29-2023, 09:44 AM
  #592  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
Do these shorts seriously think the judge is going to block this?
Yes.

One wall street analyst I talked to at the trial - obviously short - stated that 'the Judge is wrong'. Sorry pal, the Judge isn't usually wrong, especially when case law is cited.

Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo
Short is at 16% which honestly doesn’t shock me at all. Since the trial has begun the market has priced this inconsistent with the upside/downside values post merger.

I’ll laugh when the short sellers get left holding the bag here soon enough.
17.8M shares short as of mid-Dec. That should trigger a decent number of margin calls when this is announced. It trades thinly enough that I expect some short accounts to get wiped out on a decent price rise.

If it gets above 25 when the news comes out, I'll close a lot of my position and only hold a bit until merger close.
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Old 12-29-2023, 03:55 PM
  #593  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Yes.

One wall street analyst I talked to at the trial - obviously short - stated that 'the Judge is wrong'. Sorry pal, the Judge isn't usually wrong, especially when case law is cited.



17.8M shares short as of mid-Dec. That should trigger a decent number of margin calls when this is announced. It trades thinly enough that I expect some short accounts to get wiped out on a decent price rise.

If it gets above 25 when the news comes out, I'll close a lot of my position and only hold a bit until merger close.
I’m guessing a lot, or at least some, of the short interest is hedges and not just guys only on the short side.
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Old 12-29-2023, 04:22 PM
  #594  
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Originally Posted by I was inverted
I’m guessing a lot, or at least some, of the short interest is hedges and not just guys only on the short side.
Shorting the stock as a hedge? We're talking about short positions on the stock itself.
I can understand buying puts.
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Old 12-29-2023, 04:28 PM
  #595  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Yes.

One wall street analyst I talked to at the trial - obviously short - stated that 'the Judge is wrong'. Sorry pal, the Judge isn't usually wrong, especially when case law is cited.



17.8M shares short as of mid-Dec. That should trigger a decent number of margin calls when this is announced. It trades thinly enough that I expect some short accounts to get wiped out on a decent price rise.

If it gets above 25 when the news comes out, I'll close a lot of my position and only hold a bit until merger close.
I don't understand your logic. Why sell at ~$25 if you don't think the financing is in jeopardy, and you believe JB is on the right side of the law? That would be leaving 20%, and an annualized return of >%40 on the table, without articulating a reason to do so.
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Old 12-29-2023, 05:11 PM
  #596  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
I don't understand your logic. Why sell at ~$25 if you don't think the financing is in jeopardy, and you believe JB is on the right side of the law? That would be leaving 20%, and an annualized return of >%40 on the table, without articulating a reason to do so.
Andy also probably lost $50k after he was spooked by an old lady at the trial who told him she thinks it will be denied, he sold on this and bought back in, after the stock went back up.

Nothing wrong with taking profits, he seems to be content on the triple and not needing to stretch it into a home run.
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Old 12-29-2023, 08:23 PM
  #597  
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Being disciplined in your trade is one of the most fundamental aspects of trading. Know your entry and exit points, and stick to them. Andy likely lost his edge (can't blame him with how much he claims to have had one the line). But, a disciplined trader would know exactly when to buy or sell, regardless of emotion. I've missed out on money and exacerbated losses because I wasn't disciplined. Traders don't like to talk about their losses, but I'll bite. Mine was a very healthy 5-digits on a single trade in oil. Oops.... But, my best gain was 1,266% on....oil. It's very hard to take emotion out of high dollar trading, so I can't blame Andy at all...
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Old 12-29-2023, 10:13 PM
  #598  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
I don't understand your logic. Why sell at ~$25 if you don't think the financing is in jeopardy, and you believe JB is on the right side of the law? That would be leaving 20%, and an annualized return of >%40 on the table, without articulating a reason to do so.
I would do so because of the potential for it to drag on for a while. And there are still hurdles both seen and unseen at this point.

And Cinco is correct that I sold everything after the closing arguments due to several factors (one of which he mentioned) including what I considered a poor closing performance by JBLU's legal team.
I bought back in at a higher price. I don't have a problem with that.

Bulls make money, bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
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Old 12-29-2023, 11:48 PM
  #599  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Bulls make money, bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
sheep go to heaven, goats go to hell
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Old 12-30-2023, 05:33 AM
  #600  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I would do so because of the potential for it to drag on for a while. And there are still hurdles both seen and unseen at this point.

And Cinco is correct that I sold everything after the closing arguments due to several factors (one of which he mentioned) including what I considered a poor closing performance by JBLU's legal team.
I bought back in at a higher price. I don't have a problem with that.

Bulls make money, bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
I knew the "pigs get slaughtered" was coming.

As another said, being disciplined is important, and knowing your entry and exit is important. But this is a rare case of actually knowing what the final price will be, unless... And I hadn't heard a good "unless" from you after you said financing is secure and the "judge ain't wrong".

I'm wondering what you still see as viable roadblocks?
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