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Old 12-28-2023, 03:50 PM
  #581  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
Which "future setbacks" do you foresee? I think the likelihood of a price recut is very low, and the financing is secure. Trouble from the DOT is all I can see, and I'm not sure that will work. Maybe an appeal by the DOJ, but that also doesn't seem likely to work.
The financing has stipulations for a timeline and the DOJ knows this so an appeal could be more of a problem, DOT could cause problems even though they can still push forward without them, the threat of a reprice founded or not could discount the stock, certain politicians like to make the news especially in an election year… I am long SAVE stock and genuinely think it will close but I don’t think the road there will be smooth. I think the debt situation at JBLU will need deft leadership which they don’t have and a healthy economy until they figure it out (I worked there.) The government has bungled this whole process so why stop now. Hopefully I am wrong.
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Old 12-28-2023, 03:55 PM
  #582  
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Originally Posted by Aquaticus
The financing has stipulations for a timeline and the DOJ knows this so an appeal could be more of a problem, DOT could cause problems even though they can still push forward without them, the threat of a reprice founded or not could discount the stock, certain politicians like to make the news especially in an election year… I am long SAVE stock and genuinely think it will close but I don’t think the road there will be smooth. I think the debt situation at JBLU will need deft leadership which they don’t have and a healthy economy until they figure it out (I worked there.) The government has bungled this whole process so why stop now. Hopefully I am wrong.

if approved and pushed on... the DOT could essentially hold up the SOC alone correct? I assume that would be a last ditch gov effort if the DOJ files appeal that still results in a merger approval. Definitely has potential to be messy but hope we hear asap either way.
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Old 12-28-2023, 04:23 PM
  #583  
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Originally Posted by Aquaticus
The financing has stipulations for a timeline and the DOJ knows this so an appeal could be more of a problem, DOT could cause problems even though they can still push forward without them, the threat of a reprice founded or not could discount the stock, certain politicians like to make the news especially in an election year… I am long SAVE stock and genuinely think it will close but I don’t think the road there will be smooth. I think the debt situation at JBLU will need deft leadership which they don’t have and a healthy economy until they figure it out (I worked there.) The government has bungled this whole process so why stop now. Hopefully I am wrong.
You're right about the financing having time limits the DOJ could try and exploit, but they would also have to win an injunction to have a chance at that play, and I'm not sure they could get that.
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Old 12-28-2023, 07:50 PM
  #584  
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Originally Posted by En Garde
if approved and pushed on... the DOT could essentially hold up the SOC alone correct? I assume that would be a last ditch gov effort if the DOJ files appeal that still results in a merger approval. Definitely has potential to be messy but hope we hear asap either way.
I don’t think the DOT has ever, or will ever, hold up SOC based on anti-trust concerns… not their job
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Old 12-29-2023, 01:05 AM
  #585  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
You're right about the financing having time limits the DOJ could try and exploit, but they would also have to win an injunction to have a chance at that play, and I'm not sure they could get that.
That's not how Wall Street works. GS and BoA aren't going to pull financing. They'll eat a short term loss if they have to; there are bigger motivations behind the financing such as being the bank for Jetblue credit cards (I would expect to see it changed from Barclays sometime after the merger). Note that Bank of America has a Spirit branded credit card.
There's a whole lot of money in credit cards; far more than there is in flying airplanes.
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Old 12-29-2023, 06:39 AM
  #586  
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Originally Posted by Andy
That's not how Wall Street works. GS and BoA aren't going to pull financing. They'll eat a short term loss if they have to; there are bigger motivations behind the financing such as being the bank for Jetblue credit cards (I would expect to see it changed from Barclays sometime after the merger). Note that Bank of America has a Spirit branded credit card.
There's a whole lot of money in credit cards; far more than there is in flying airplanes.
What is your exit strategy if this goes?
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Old 12-29-2023, 07:12 AM
  #587  
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Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB
I don’t think the DOT has ever, or will ever, hold up SOC based on anti-trust concerns… not their job
Not their job... until Smilin Joe Biden signed an executive order in 2021 essentially saying big business monopolies were an existential threat to the country and every government branch that has a "department of" in the title should do everything in their power to gum up the works. Mayor Pete has been deputized and he will ride with any posse that keeps him relevant in the DNC.
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Old 12-29-2023, 08:05 AM
  #588  
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Originally Posted by Aquaticus
What is your exit strategy if this goes?
Depends on where the price goes after the ruling. Either a quick exit or if the price hasn't moved sufficiently, stay until my shares are bought by B6.

There's significant and growing short interest.
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Old 12-29-2023, 08:46 AM
  #589  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Depends on where the price goes after the ruling. Either a quick exit or if the price hasn't moved sufficiently, stay until my shares are bought by B6.

There's significant and growing short interest.
Do these shorts seriously think the judge is going to block this?
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Old 12-29-2023, 08:59 AM
  #590  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
Do these shorts seriously think the judge is going to block this?


My take is that the
merger will be approved
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