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Old 12-14-2023, 06:10 AM
  #491  
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Originally Posted by tpgcirrus
Howdy Folks.... Trial briefs are here for both the DOJ and JBLJU

JBLU: https://storage.courtlistener.com/re...4267.450.0.pdf

DOJ: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.254267/gov.uscourts.mad.254267.451.0.
pdf

After reading these, I am even more bullish this closes. The DOJ may have put on a decent showing at closing arguments, but they got absolutely SLAPPED in all closing documents, imo.
Further divestitures could still sink the merger if they are onerous. The DOT can still muck things up as well as a DOJ appeal (which they might do just to drag this out even more). I think the stock pops on them approving the merger followed shortly by a wet blanket of further details.
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Old 12-14-2023, 10:07 AM
  #492  
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Originally Posted by Halon1211
Attorneys have been contacted for and an announcement in favor of the merger will be announced on the morning of the 19th!

merger will be allowed go through but with some more divestures.

as per our email (Spirit) we will be having a town hall later that afternoon, the purpose will be to answer question about the additional divestures and the next steps JetBlue may take to merge into one and the timeline.
^^^Corrected it for you

You guys keep conflating a potential DOJ trial victory with a 100% probability of JBLU electing to complete the transaction.

Regardless of any additional required divestitures, there are many other pieces of the puzzle: namely the financial condition of Spirit, the market dynamics now versus the time of the bidding war, and the underlying value of the entity.

Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade, just pointing out there is still a whole flock of black swans hovering over this thing.

Last edited by DontCallMeCindy; 12-14-2023 at 10:20 AM.
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Old 12-14-2023, 10:18 AM
  #493  
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Originally Posted by DontCallMeCindy
^^^Corrected it for you

You guys keep conflating a potential DOJ trial victory with a 100% probability of JetBlue electing to complete the transaction.

Regardless of any additional required divestitures, there are many other pieces of the puzzle: namely the financial condition of Spirit, the market dynamics now versus the time of the bidding war, and the underlying value of the entity.
If you think JB wants to back out you haven't been paying attention. Their foot is very clearly fully on the gas peddle.
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Old 12-14-2023, 10:24 AM
  #494  
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If anyone sits down and actually reads those closing briefs, and still think the DOJ met the burden of proof to pass step 1 of the baker hughes analysis.... I don't know what to tell ya. I could be wrong but it seems like it won't even get to the stage of considering additional divestitures. Their argument is a contradicting mess.
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Old 12-14-2023, 10:57 AM
  #495  
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Originally Posted by tpgcirrus
If anyone sits down and actually reads those closing briefs, and still think the DOJ met the burden of proof to pass step 1 of the baker hughes analysis.... I don't know what to tell ya. I could be wrong but it seems like it won't even get to the stage of considering additional divestitures. Their argument is a contradicting mess.
It will all hinge on the definition of relevant market that the judge goes with. Only he knows now, but we will all know soon enough.
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Old 12-14-2023, 11:21 AM
  #496  
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Originally Posted by Runaround
It will all hinge on the definition of relevant market that the judge goes with. Only he knows now, but we will all know soon enough.
What did the DOJ claim was the relevant market? They were a little flip floppy on what the relevant market was, were they not? They were mostly upset that the ULCC was being taken out of the market, however they couldn’t claim that the ULCC was the market because doing so would not be anti-competitive since the combined company would no longer be competing in the ULCC market.
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Old 12-14-2023, 11:35 AM
  #497  
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Originally Posted by DontCallMeCindy
^^^Corrected it for you

You guys keep conflating a potential DOJ trial victory with a 100% probability of JBLU electing to complete the transaction.

Regardless of any additional required divestitures, there are many other pieces of the puzzle: namely the financial condition of Spirit, the market dynamics now versus the time of the bidding war, and the underlying value of the entity.

Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade, just pointing out there is still a whole flock of black swans hovering over this thing.
ehh.....sounds more like you're hoping something else will stop it since you're slowly realizing there is a good chance the DOJ will not be that something. I get it, you don't want the merger. But atleast don't act like you're not paying attention. We know you are, Cindy.
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Old 12-14-2023, 01:31 PM
  #498  
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Originally Posted by Lakeaffect
What did the DOJ claim was the relevant market? They were a little flip floppy on what the relevant market was, were they not? They were mostly upset that the ULCC was being taken out of the market, however they couldn’t claim that the ULCC was the market because doing so would not be anti-competitive since the combined company would no longer be competing in the ULCC market.
DOJ claims origin and destination pairs are the relevent market, and showing a lessening of competition on any one route meets their burden of proof to quash the deal. JetBlue claims the overall nationwide market is relevent, and individuals routes are not. There are of course nuances in each of their arguments, but that is the crux of it.
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Old 12-14-2023, 01:37 PM
  #499  
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Originally Posted by Runaround
DOJ claims origin and destination pairs are the relevent market, and showing a lessening of competition on any one route meets their burden of proof to quash the deal. JetBlue claims the overall nationwide market is relevent, and individuals routes are not. There are of course nuances in each of their arguments, but that is the crux of it.
What they fail to understand is spirit can change the business model tomorrow if they so choose. No airline has to be a ULCC/LCC/full service/VIP only forever.
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Old 12-14-2023, 01:42 PM
  #500  
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Originally Posted by DontCallMeCindy
^^^Corrected it for you

You guys keep conflating a potential DOJ trial victory with a 100% probability of JBLU electing to complete the transaction.

Regardless of any additional required divestitures, there are many other pieces of the puzzle: namely the financial condition of Spirit, the market dynamics now versus the time of the bidding war, and the underlying value of the entity.

Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade, just pointing out there is still a whole flock of black swans hovering over this thing.
Depending on what divestures or other remedies the judge orders the JetBlue management team will either have to continue with the merger or risk being charged with perjury. During the trial they VERY clearly, under oath, stated they are going to merge the companies, period.
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