In the courtroom.
12-08-2023, 05:30 PM
#461
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Excargodog, SAVE isn't an investment; it's a special situation play
. The stock itself is dog feces with the long string of quarterly losses eroding the balance sheet. The B6 bid is what's holding up the stock price.
. The stock itself is dog feces with the long string of quarterly losses eroding the balance sheet. The B6 bid is what's holding up the stock price.
12-08-2023, 07:26 PM
#462
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,146
12-08-2023, 07:58 PM
#463
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: blueJet
Posts: 4,536
12-08-2023, 09:30 PM
#464
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
12-09-2023, 02:10 AM
#466
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 155
Tpg, good hearing from you! I see where the LA guy next to us turned out to be a blogger.
Cinco's probably correct on my bias. I was extremely overweight on SAVE and because closing didn't go perfectly in my mind PLUS the conversation with the antitrust attornies concerned me, and then the price was tumbling when I checked quotes after getting my cel phone back. I went ahead and liquidated everything. The huge price gap between closing offer price and market price has also concerned me - usually arbs wouldn't let the gap be that large so they see uncertainty here.
I plan on buying back in on a decent dip, but with a much lighter position. I still believe the merger makes sense (even if it eventually results in a Ch 11, but that's another topic) and I think that Judge is looking for a way to make a ruling to allow it. Since I don't know antitrust law, my first instinct was to defer to the attornies who were in the gallery. Upon reflection, I suspect that most of them are state antitrust attornies who enjoined the lawsuit with DOJ. If that's the case, they're carrying their own bias.
So bottom line is that I feel like it should go through, but i can see why it wouldn't if the Judge rules otherwise. I don't know if you remember the skinny little bald guy directly in front of me that talked to us a bit. Turned out he's also an antitrust atty (one of the 3). Before DOJ's closing, he felt it was 55% in favor of DOJ but 'his heart leaned to JBLU'. When I talked to him after, along with the other two antitrust attys, he was more confident that it would go DOJ's way. Again, I don't know their biases. And frankly, there's no certitude in a trial.
I'll post when I reopen a long SAVE position. It won't be big. Since I don't thiink we'll have a ruling until January, I don't plan on buying until I see a decent dip in the price.
Cinco's probably correct on my bias. I was extremely overweight on SAVE and because closing didn't go perfectly in my mind PLUS the conversation with the antitrust attornies concerned me, and then the price was tumbling when I checked quotes after getting my cel phone back. I went ahead and liquidated everything. The huge price gap between closing offer price and market price has also concerned me - usually arbs wouldn't let the gap be that large so they see uncertainty here.
I plan on buying back in on a decent dip, but with a much lighter position. I still believe the merger makes sense (even if it eventually results in a Ch 11, but that's another topic) and I think that Judge is looking for a way to make a ruling to allow it. Since I don't know antitrust law, my first instinct was to defer to the attornies who were in the gallery. Upon reflection, I suspect that most of them are state antitrust attornies who enjoined the lawsuit with DOJ. If that's the case, they're carrying their own bias.
So bottom line is that I feel like it should go through, but i can see why it wouldn't if the Judge rules otherwise. I don't know if you remember the skinny little bald guy directly in front of me that talked to us a bit. Turned out he's also an antitrust atty (one of the 3). Before DOJ's closing, he felt it was 55% in favor of DOJ but 'his heart leaned to JBLU'. When I talked to him after, along with the other two antitrust attys, he was more confident that it would go DOJ's way. Again, I don't know their biases. And frankly, there's no certitude in a trial.
I'll post when I reopen a long SAVE position. It won't be big. Since I don't thiink we'll have a ruling until January, I don't plan on buying until I see a decent dip in the price.
12-09-2023, 05:38 AM
#467
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,551
I think this is a really good article and sums up why I think JB wins.
https://www.valoremresearch.com/p/beyond-compare?utm_campaign=post
holding my position.
https://www.valoremresearch.com/p/beyond-compare?utm_campaign=post
holding my position.
12-09-2023, 01:44 PM
#469
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,146
I indeed have limited. Experience in gambling, but I have an annualized return on my Vanguard investment of 12.8% over the last 20 years according to Vanguard. My other investments have done pretty much equally well. How's your ROI for your gambling?
12-09-2023, 02:13 PM
#470
That/It/Thang
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,921
Who cares?! Seriously, does anyone care about your 401k return? Put your cocktail wiener away, nobody is asking for a measurement.
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