In the courtroom.
12-08-2023, 12:27 PM
#451
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Position: NK CA
Posts: 840
I think they were talking about me since I dont share their sintment of shake in my boots the sky is falling ch11 antics. That only helps management scare the pilot group come JCBA time.
12-08-2023, 12:58 PM
#452
off weekends (if Reserve)
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 353
Your ignorance is forgiven but your logic stands as incorrect. They DO NOT have the final say. For the Record CSPAN 1 is the most unbiased news coverage this planet will ever see.......because it's just raw footage......certainly not entertaining though.
12-08-2023, 03:45 PM
#454
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Posts: 57
Yes, I think it's a bit better than a coin flip on going through.
I plan on buying a small position in SAVE if the price falls a bit. The stock is not dropping, unlike what I anticipated. I don't expect a ruling until January.
My previous position was extremely overweight and I deferred to the attorneys I spoke to on the legal aspects of the case, but I don't know what their biases are, nor do I know who they work for.
Plus I thought closing arguments waaay favored DOJ.
Can you find any quotes where people suggest Alaska would file Ch 11? I thought Alaska was throwing money away to preserve their markets, not that it pushed them toward Ch 11.
I plan on buying a small position in SAVE if the price falls a bit. The stock is not dropping, unlike what I anticipated. I don't expect a ruling until January.
My previous position was extremely overweight and I deferred to the attorneys I spoke to on the legal aspects of the case, but I don't know what their biases are, nor do I know who they work for.
Plus I thought closing arguments waaay favored DOJ.
Can you find any quotes where people suggest Alaska would file Ch 11? I thought Alaska was throwing money away to preserve their markets, not that it pushed them toward Ch 11.
I think one of the biggest things not being talked about much is when the judge corrected the DOJ essentially telling them that the large amounts of evidence need to come from the DOJ and not the defense. I also think the judge maybe had a little oopsie of a Freudian slip as he said at one point "spirit was the largest ULCC". I have this underlined in my notes about 50 times.
Reading pre trial briefs, their closing arguments were essentially the exact same thing with no new information... and you saw Dr. Hill's testimony and said how good he was! Definitely don't blame you for shrinking your exposure but do find your opinion on closings interesting!
hooe you got home safely and quickly after the trial!
12-08-2023, 04:10 PM
#455
That/It/Thang
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,921
I find it interesting that you thought closing way favored the DOJ! Unfortunately I had to leave right after but would definitely be curious as to why? There was nothing new that they said during their closing arguments, and in fact, actually backed out of a few of their arguments that they had previously tried use.
I think one of the biggest things not being talked about much is when the judge corrected the DOJ essentially telling them that the large amounts of evidence need to come from the DOJ and not the defense. I also think the judge maybe had a little oopsie of a Freudian slip as he said at one point "spirit was the largest ULCC". I have this underlined in my notes about 50 times.
Reading pre trial briefs, their closing arguments were essentially the exact same thing with no new information... and you saw Dr. Hill's testimony and said how good he was! Definitely don't blame you for shrinking your exposure but do find your opinion on closings interesting!
hooe you got home safely and quickly after the trial!
I think one of the biggest things not being talked about much is when the judge corrected the DOJ essentially telling them that the large amounts of evidence need to come from the DOJ and not the defense. I also think the judge maybe had a little oopsie of a Freudian slip as he said at one point "spirit was the largest ULCC". I have this underlined in my notes about 50 times.
Reading pre trial briefs, their closing arguments were essentially the exact same thing with no new information... and you saw Dr. Hill's testimony and said how good he was! Definitely don't blame you for shrinking your exposure but do find your opinion on closings interesting!
hooe you got home safely and quickly after the trial!
12-08-2023, 04:39 PM
#457
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2019
Posts: 246
Wow I didnt hear anything about that. So he essentially admitted the burden of proof is on the DOJ? And outside looking in, it seems like the DOJ has been more speculative than anything. Combined with witness Hill doing a better job on the cross examination (supposedly).
12-08-2023, 04:42 PM
#458
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Tpg, good hearing from you! I see where the LA guy next to us turned out to be a blogger.
Cinco's probably correct on my bias. I was extremely overweight on SAVE and because closing didn't go perfectly in my mind PLUS the conversation with the antitrust attornies concerned me, and then the price was tumbling when I checked quotes after getting my cel phone back. I went ahead and liquidated everything. The huge price gap between closing offer price and market price has also concerned me - usually arbs wouldn't let the gap be that large so they see uncertainty here.
I plan on buying back in on a decent dip, but with a much lighter position. I still believe the merger makes sense (even if it eventually results in a Ch 11, but that's another topic) and I think that Judge is looking for a way to make a ruling to allow it. Since I don't know antitrust law, my first instinct was to defer to the attornies who were in the gallery. Upon reflection, I suspect that most of them are state antitrust attornies who enjoined the lawsuit with DOJ. If that's the case, they're carrying their own bias.
So bottom line is that I feel like it should go through, but i can see why it wouldn't if the Judge rules otherwise. I don't know if you remember the skinny little bald guy directly in front of me that talked to us a bit. Turned out he's also an antitrust atty (one of the 3). Before DOJ's closing, he felt it was 55% in favor of DOJ but 'his heart leaned to JBLU'. When I talked to him after, along with the other two antitrust attys, he was more confident that it would go DOJ's way. Again, I don't know their biases. And frankly, there's no certitude in a trial.
I'll post when I reopen a long SAVE position. It won't be big. Since I don't thiink we'll have a ruling until January, I don't plan on buying until I see a decent dip in the price.
Cinco's probably correct on my bias. I was extremely overweight on SAVE and because closing didn't go perfectly in my mind PLUS the conversation with the antitrust attornies concerned me, and then the price was tumbling when I checked quotes after getting my cel phone back. I went ahead and liquidated everything. The huge price gap between closing offer price and market price has also concerned me - usually arbs wouldn't let the gap be that large so they see uncertainty here.
I plan on buying back in on a decent dip, but with a much lighter position. I still believe the merger makes sense (even if it eventually results in a Ch 11, but that's another topic) and I think that Judge is looking for a way to make a ruling to allow it. Since I don't know antitrust law, my first instinct was to defer to the attornies who were in the gallery. Upon reflection, I suspect that most of them are state antitrust attornies who enjoined the lawsuit with DOJ. If that's the case, they're carrying their own bias.
So bottom line is that I feel like it should go through, but i can see why it wouldn't if the Judge rules otherwise. I don't know if you remember the skinny little bald guy directly in front of me that talked to us a bit. Turned out he's also an antitrust atty (one of the 3). Before DOJ's closing, he felt it was 55% in favor of DOJ but 'his heart leaned to JBLU'. When I talked to him after, along with the other two antitrust attys, he was more confident that it would go DOJ's way. Again, I don't know their biases. And frankly, there's no certitude in a trial.
I'll post when I reopen a long SAVE position. It won't be big. Since I don't thiink we'll have a ruling until January, I don't plan on buying until I see a decent dip in the price.
12-08-2023, 04:47 PM
#459
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Posts: 57
I'm not a lawyer obviously so I don't remember the exact context. But the DOJ lawyer was explaining something and the judge interrupted him and corrected the way he was describing part of the Baker Hughes method. I tried to find it in slotnicks tweets but he didn't even mention it. They briefly talk about it in the YAVP episode with Cohen.
12-08-2023, 05:20 PM
#460
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,146
Tpg, good hearing from you! I see where the LA guy next to us turned out to be a blogger.
Cinco's probably correct on my bias. I was extremely overweight on SAVE and because closing didn't go perfectly in my mind PLUS the conversation with the antitrust attornies concerned me, and then the price was tumbling when I checked quotes after getting my cel phone back. I went ahead and liquidated everything. The huge price gap between closing offer price and market price has also concerned me - usually arbs wouldn't let the gap be that large so they see uncertainty here.
Cinco's probably correct on my bias. I was extremely overweight on SAVE and because closing didn't go perfectly in my mind PLUS the conversation with the antitrust attornies concerned me, and then the price was tumbling when I checked quotes after getting my cel phone back. I went ahead and liquidated everything. The huge price gap between closing offer price and market price has also concerned me - usually arbs wouldn't let the gap be that large so they see uncertainty here.
I've done pretty well in the market over the years, but I have a friend who told me, "I don't invest in the stock market anymore. I've lost several fortunes doing it." Except he really hadn't invested. He'd gambled in the stock market. It ain't the same thing.
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