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Old 12-08-2023, 03:53 AM
  #431  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I don't think Ch 11's the master plan, but I can almost guarantee you that Ch 11's a plan should this merger not work out perfectly.
I suspect that the c-suite sees a likelihood of Ch 11 with or without a merger. They likely prefer to enter Ch 11 as a larger airline rather than a smaller one.

And it wouldn't be immediate; the combined company would be able to stay afloat for at least a couple of years.
Everyone was saying the same thing when Alaska wayyy overpaid for virgin america and they turned out fine. This is all useless drama and no substance.
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Old 12-08-2023, 03:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Andy
I don't think Ch 11's the master plan, but I can almost guarantee you that Ch 11's a plan should this merger not work out perfectly.
I suspect that the c-suite sees a likelihood of Ch 11 with or without a merger. They likely prefer to enter Ch 11 as a larger airline rather than a smaller one.

And it wouldn't be immediate; the combined company would be able to stay afloat for at least a couple of years.
andy,

do you feel any differently about the merger going through now that you had time to process it more?

I know you talked with some other attorneys right after the closing arguments. But you’ve got to admit the judge even said, he find it “difficult” to completely blocked merger.
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Old 12-08-2023, 04:06 AM
  #433  
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Originally Posted by Halon1211
andy,

do you feel any differently about the merger going through now that you had time to process it more?

I know you talked with some other attorneys right after the closing arguments. But you’ve got to admit the judge even said, he find it “difficult” to completely blocked merger.
Yes, I think it's a bit better than a coin flip on going through.
I plan on buying a small position in SAVE if the price falls a bit. The stock is not dropping, unlike what I anticipated. I don't expect a ruling until January.
My previous position was extremely overweight and I deferred to the attorneys I spoke to on the legal aspects of the case, but I don't know what their biases are, nor do I know who they work for.
Plus I thought closing arguments waaay favored DOJ.

Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
Everyone was saying the same thing when Alaska wayyy overpaid for virgin america and they turned out fine. This is all useless drama and no substance.
Can you find any quotes where people suggest Alaska would file Ch 11? I thought Alaska was throwing money away to preserve their markets, not that it pushed them toward Ch 11.
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Old 12-08-2023, 05:06 AM
  #434  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Yes, I think it's a bit better than a coin flip on going through.
I plan on buying a small position in SAVE if the price falls a bit. The stock is not dropping, unlike what I anticipated. I don't expect a ruling until January.
My previous position was extremely overweight and I deferred to the attorneys I spoke to on the legal aspects of the case, but I don't know what their biases are, nor do I know who they work for.
Plus I thought closing arguments waaay favored DOJ.



Can you find any quotes where people suggest Alaska would file Ch 11? I thought Alaska was throwing money away to preserve their markets, not that it pushed them toward Ch 11.
Hey Andy, do you have any thoughts on the DOJ admitting the judge should consider the national scale during the closing statements? I thought that was odd, when their emphasis was harm on the local level during the trial.

I must be missing something.
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Old 12-08-2023, 05:29 AM
  #435  
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Originally Posted by Andy
Can you find any quotes where people suggest Alaska would file Ch 11? I thought Alaska was throwing money away to preserve their markets, not that it pushed them toward Ch 11.
Can you quote where people that actually know what they are talking about (not people on APC) said JB would file for ch11 right after the merger?
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Old 12-08-2023, 08:34 AM
  #436  
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I don't watch enough Judge Judy/ C SPAN 2 so forgive my ignornace, but regardless of how this DOJ trial goes, doesn't the DOT have the final say? If true, I can see the DOT overruling the verdict because it's "the right thing to do" ( denying the merger).
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Old 12-08-2023, 08:43 AM
  #437  
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Originally Posted by Rabid Seagull
I don't watch enough Judge Judy/ C SPAN 2 so forgive my ignornace, but regardless of how this DOJ trial goes, doesn't the DOT have the final say? If true, I can see the DOT overruling the verdict because it's "the right thing to do" ( denying the merger).
No they don't have the final say.

And with a conservative Supreme Court taking aim at the Chevron Deference doctrine already, DOT woukd be well advised to not go beyond a strict interpretation of their enabling legislation which does not include trying to stop acquisitions and mergers.
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Old 12-08-2023, 08:49 AM
  #438  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
No they don't have the final say.

And with a conservative Supreme Court taking aim at the Chevron Deference doctrine already, DOT woukd be well advised to not go beyond a strict interpretation of their enabling legislation which does not include trying to stop acquisitions and mergers.
Until a case is argued and ruled on before the Supreme Court, they do not "take aim" on any law or previous ruling.
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Old 12-08-2023, 08:59 AM
  #439  
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The new rumor is an early next year decision, based on a Seeking Alpha article. Not sure how credible that is.
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Old 12-08-2023, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by DrSmacFum
The new rumor is an early next year decision, based on a Seeking Alpha article. Not sure how credible that is.
We just got an NK email saying January as well.
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