tom11011

No, but most people are attempting to apply logic to this decision when we should be applying the law to this decision. "the law is reason free from passion" - Aristotle. Having said that I think it will be approved.

Lakeaffect

Not exactly what you asked for, but a balanced view of the DOJ/FTC record. A good read, and telling when it comes to divestitures. Current DOJ/FTC has been unwilling to accept divestitures and has lost every single case where they were unwilling to accept divestitures.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transa...nt-2023-07-10/

CincoDeMayo

That idea, of sort, was kind of tossed around as possible ideas for remedies from the judge; “require for a specified about of time, JBLU will allocate a minimum of xx% of their fares be “Basic Blue”

Cohen expressed more concern not with the judge not outright blocking the merger (he has already said doing so makes him uncomfortable) but that the judge might have conditions that make the deal less profitable/desirable for JBLU, causing a potential repricing or walking away. Cohen doesn’t think JBLU will walk, but that’s a concern

En Garde

this is my greatest fear with staying here, merger is approved and we get a phenomenal JCBA... then in the thick of trying to get the SOC, planes parked for refit and engine issues the company goes chapter 11 to restructure and deal with all the new cost/debt and we stagnate or shrink to profitability on a crappy bankruptcy contract.

Excargodog

or WWIII
or an extinction event asteroid
or a global. Pandemic of mono on the go-go

Never in decades have things looked so favorable for experienced airline pilots. There are NEVER guarantees, but whining right now is certainly not warranted.

CincoDeMayo

It’s an example of a current new generation of pilots who have never known about downturns in the industry. They have not yet learned that stability is only an illusion

DontCallMeCindy

To shed the massive debts and labor contracts required to absorb Spirit, and emerge a lean, mean, number 5 fighting machine?

If you’re still lost on what the heck I’m talking about, go do some reading on mergers & acquisitions, leveraged buyouts, and Chapter 11 as a tool for restructuring after a costly acquisition to gain market share and prime real estate. It’s a tried and true long-term business strategy, especially in this industry.

None of us has any idea what the company wants the post-acquisition airline to actually look like…particularly the fleet size over time, vs. the crew composition.

It’s obviously out of our hands at this point, I just find it sort of alarming how many pilots seem so gung-ho cheerleading the acquisition, when these things can and do lead to restructuring and “right-sizing” on occasion.

I just hope our unions are smart enough to ask for furlough protections in JCBA talks!

Lincoln Osiris

So you think the c-suites master plan after the merger is declare chapter 11 on purpose to cut down costs? I'm sure their shareholders would love to know that. What past airlines have merged THEN immediately declared bankrupcy because of it?

Tranquility

After watching that and rereading the post-trial summaries, I feel more confident that the deal will close, but not convinced. The fact that Judge Young stated that he was uncomfortable with a permanent injunction, that the market is dynamic, and was talking remedies (granted not specifically, but in general), tilts me towards approval. The HUGE question is, what would those remedies be??? The fact that the DOJ was in a "my way or the highway" mode, might actually help with the judge's decision as JetBlue has already preemptively offered remedies, and anything additional would be decided by the judge and not negotiated with an obstinate DOJ.... We shall see...

Andy

I don't think Ch 11's the master plan, but I can almost guarantee you that Ch 11's a plan should this merger not work out perfectly.
I suspect that the c-suite sees a likelihood of Ch 11 with or without a merger. They likely prefer to enter Ch 11 as a larger airline rather than a smaller one.

And it wouldn't be immediate; the combined company would be able to stay afloat for at least a couple of years.