tom11011

The Judge has an issue with any Permenant Injunction. I suspect we are looking at a few more divestitures to complete this.

CatPilot1

Judge Young

We're not going to get anywhere if you win, I enjoin this merger, and Spirit goes belly up," Young said, citing testimony that claimed that the financial difficulties Spirit has faced in recent quarters amount to an existential threat to the airline.

OpieTaylor

JB is flipping the information, they specifically identify high margin markets to enter and sell airfare in. NYC to London is a perfect example.

They control 200 seats a day on a market that has a few of thousand seats a day and pretend their published rate is available to the whole market based on their competitive identity as a company.

On paper they lowered airfare, but in reality they gained access to an infrastructure restricted market.

Spirt enters high volume markets trying to keep the boat full and up selling passengers post purchase. They will statistically lower fares less because they operate for volume first so a % based change affects them more.

JB is the equivalent of operating 100 FBOs selling Avgas and JET-A highlighting reducing fuel margins in their markets, while Spirt is operating 100 interstate gas stations that want you to buy the car wash and make hardly zip on the fuel sale.

The DOJ has the authentic understanding of what will happen and JB is spinning data to support its forgone conclusion.

En Garde

Andy....

after being in the court room today do you still feel a decision by the 11th?

RiddleEagle18

Wont happen by the 11th. He gave both sides until the 13th to file more paperwork and briefs.

would expect a few weeks after that.

Noisecanceller

Divest what where? They’re already giving up everything spirit has in the NE and JB doesn’t have a monopoly on any of those airports. FLL? Still not a monopoly. A solid hub, yes but not a monopoly. AA is bigger in MIA. Let’s not even talk about DFW, IAH, ATL, ORD, DTW. The DOJ is so full of **** it’s maddening

Andy

What Riddle said.

In addition, I think that Judge Young is going to spend a lot of time pondering this one.
Honestly, a quick decision would likely go in favor of DOJ. A lot of time before the decision would favor the merger. IMHO.

Tranquility

I gotta ask..... What % gain did you get??? You claimed to have a lot of shares, I just gotta know....

Flip side, are you now shorting SAVE or buying puts on the stock??

tpgcirrus

Unrelated to Andy but I have been following just as closely and also been at the trial.

I've closed the majority of my position @ +47%. Depending how the market goes tomorrow I may buy back in on some more shares. I'm slightly more optimistic then Andy is, but not confident enough to maintain the high % of my portfolio that spirit was previously.

My recap of today is on Stocktwits under the same name, if you feel like reading.

Andy

I made more on this trade than my W2 this year (737 CA). Most of the gains are in Roth accounts.

No, I'm not shorting SAVE nor buying puts.
If the price drops enough (8s or lower) and it's mid-Jan without a decision, I'll probably take a smallish position.