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Old 12-05-2023, 11:27 AM
  #351  
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I totally agree with everything you're saying. But at the end of the day, I had to defer to the antitrust attys.

I didn't get achance to get in too much detail but she seemed to be respected by the others. She mingled with quite a few observers.
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:47 AM
  #352  
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Originally Posted by Lakeaffect
I can understand how an outsider with little understanding of the intricacies of air travel could make the think that the DOJ has a good case. But once you hone in on every argument they make, it’s a big fat nothing burger. Harm to the price sensitive consumer. Yes in some cases absolutely, initially at least. But, there will also be harm if Spirit pulls out of those unprofitable markets which they aren’t making money on, changes it’s business model because it’s not making money catering to those consumers
Well, a pilot wont be making the final decision. The final decision will be made by "an outsider with little understanding of the intricacies of air travel." I think it gets approved for reasons I posted earlier.

Andy took profits, nothing wrong with that. But lets not confuse taking profits and being happy with a win and compare it to "its going to fail because of a grey haired lady I spoke to in court"
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:51 AM
  #353  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I was at court today.
Unimpressed with JBLU's closing; DOJ put on a good performance, best to date.

Didn't feel great leaving the courtroom.

Chatted it up with other attendees. Singled out one woman I really wanted to talk to since I'd seen her every day I attended.
She ended up being an antitrust atty who attends these things regularly. She stated it's 80% chance of ruling with DOJ. The other two attys agreed it appeared to be a DOJ victory.

I painfully sold a metric $hitton of SAVE stock after that conversation and am now out of the stock.

I really wanted to hear something different from the other attendees.

I still think it's a coin flip and is a reasonable merger but I couldn't justify my extreme overweight position. All the best to you guys.
I can understand how an outsider with little understanding of the intricacies of air travel could make the think that the DOJ has a good case. But once you hone in on every argument they make, it’s a big fat nothing burger. Harm to the price sensitive consumer. Yes in some cases absolutely, initially at least. But, there will also be harm if Spirit pulls out of those unprofitable markets which they aren’t making money on, changes it’s business model because it’s not making money catering to those consumers, or goes out of business.

Bad for some consumers, yes. But Spirit is already bad for a lot of consumers with lots of complaints. And unprofitable. Are we really not going to take in to consideration the fact that the unions have signed off on this and it’s probably going to give pilots and F/A’s significant raises.

The industry is dynamic and airlines need to make money to stay in business. Is it really a right that every single person should be able to fly even if they can’t afford to? Is it Spirits job to satisfy that price sensitive consumer even when a better opportunity comes along that benefits its shareholders and its employees and a bunch of other consumers. If the net total of benefiting consumers is way more, the employees are better paid, the shareholders are happier? It’s just nuts to me that an attorney who specializes in these cases could think this is a slam dunk for the DOJ.
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:52 AM
  #354  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I totally agree with everything you're saying. But at the end of the day, I had to defer to the antitrust attys.

I didn't get achance to get in too much detail but she seemed to be respected by the others. She mingled with quite a few observers.
Thanks for sharing the play by play through this. Been interesting that's for sure.
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:56 AM
  #355  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I was at court today.
Unimpressed with JBLU's closing; DOJ put on a good performance, best to date.

Didn't feel great leaving the courtroom.

Chatted it up with other attendees. Singled out one woman I really wanted to talk to since I'd seen her every day I attended.
She ended up being an antitrust atty who attends these things regularly. She stated it's 80% chance of ruling with DOJ. The other two attys agreed it appeared to be a DOJ victory.

I painfully sold a metric $hitton of SAVE stock after that conversation and am now out of the stock.

I really wanted to hear something different from the other attendees.

I still think it's a coin flip and is a reasonable merger but I couldn't justify my extreme overweight position. All the best to you guys.
I'n not at all surprised that an antitrust attorney would side with the DOJ. That said, your synopsis doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies.... I hope you made money with your trade, and appreciate the courtroom updates!
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:57 AM
  #356  
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Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo
Well, a pilot wont be making the final decision. The final decision will be made by "an outsider with little understanding of the intricacies of air travel." I think it gets approved for reasons I posted earlier.

Andy took profits, nothing wrong with that. But lets not confuse taking profits and being happy with a win and compare it to "its going to fail because of a grey haired lady I spoke to in court"
I hit the submit button early, ended up saying more than what you quoted here. But yes. I agree with what you say. I just thought it would have become more clear to the outsider that sat through the court case. It makes me nervous that after a month of pleading our case and hearing the DOJ’s that attorneys who specialize would think the DOJ has a winning case.
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Old 12-05-2023, 12:08 PM
  #357  
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Originally Posted by Lakeaffect
I hit the submit button early, ended up saying more than what you quoted here. But yes. I agree with what you say. I just thought it would have become more clear to the outsider that sat through the court case. It makes me nervous that after a month of pleading our case and hearing the DOJ’s that attorneys who specialize would think the DOJ has a winning case.
I dont think your assessment is wrong, I think a lot of people "pulled an Andy" today and felt profits are nice, take them.
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Old 12-05-2023, 12:23 PM
  #358  
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Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo
Well, a pilot wont be making the final decision. The final decision will be made by "an outsider with little understanding of the intricacies of air travel." I think it gets approved for reasons I posted earlier.

Andy took profits, nothing wrong with that. But lets not confuse taking profits and being happy with a win and compare it to "its going to fail because of a grey haired lady I spoke to in court"
Exactly, that's just one person's opinion and not the one that decides the case.
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Old 12-05-2023, 12:24 PM
  #359  
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Any idea what having 8 days for remaining filings means? Safe to say no ruling until after that date?
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Old 12-05-2023, 12:38 PM
  #360  
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Originally Posted by Lakeaffect
I can understand how an outsider with little understanding of the intricacies of air travel could make the think that the DOJ has a good case. But once you hone in on every argument they make, it’s a big fat nothing burger. Harm to the price sensitive consumer. Yes in some cases absolutely, initially at least. But, there will also be harm if Spirit pulls out of those unprofitable markets which they aren’t making money on, changes it’s business model because it’s not making money catering to those consumers, or goes out of business.

Bad for some consumers, yes. But Spirit is already bad for a lot of consumers with lots of complaints. And unprofitable. Are we really not going to take in to consideration the fact that the unions have signed off on this and it’s probably going to give pilots and F/A’s significant raises.

The industry is dynamic and airlines need to make money to stay in business. Is it really a right that every single person should be able to fly even if they can’t afford to? Is it Spirits job to satisfy that price sensitive consumer even when a better opportunity comes along that benefits its shareholders and its employees and a bunch of other consumers. If the net total of benefiting consumers is way more, the employees are better paid, the shareholders are happier? It’s just nuts to me that an attorney who specializes in these cases could think this is a slam dunk for the DOJ.
I wish the defense would have brought up all the routes and entire cities spirit has pulled out of when they were even the only ULCC operator there. Spirit can pull out of anything any time. It doesn’t take a merger. Heck we just announced we are pulling out of DEN just last month. Yes Frontier is there but some of the routes we were the only ULCC and the legacies were crushing us. The DOJ has no idea how airlines work. They just want to stop any and all mergers. It’s a clown show. Hope the judge doesn’t fall for it but the JB lawyers didn’t make this key point about leaving markets exclusive of the merger.
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